We have three games left in the NFL season – it feels like just yesterday that we were getting things started.

And the beginning of the 2021 season feels like a great place to start.

Back in September I gave out one futures play for every team in the league.

For the Kansas City Chiefs, it was backing them at +550 to win the Super Bowl. Today, they currently sit at +150.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, it was taking the over on Joe Burrow’s passing yards… because I thought the Bengals would be bad and Burrow would have to throw a ton.

Fast-forward to January and the Burrow prop easily cashed, and we’ve gotten great value on the Chiefs at +550.

But it just goes to show that on any given Sunday the Super Bowl favourite, or a team that enters the season with +15000 Super Bowl odds and a win total set at 6.5, can get hot and make a run in the playoffs.

We have two high-powered offences going head-to-head in the AFC Championship, and an underdog that refuses to quit.

Let’s get to it.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Line: Chiefs -7 

Total: 54.5

 

GEAUX TIGERS

Dating back to their time together at LSU, quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase have won 27 of their last 34 football games when on the field together.

Burrow and Chase first connected at LSU in 2019, with Chase setting a school record of 1,780 receiving yards, and 20 touchdowns.

Their connection in college ended with Burrow finding Chase nine times for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the National Championship.

And when their time together at LSU ended, it seemed like their run was over.

But the Bengals landed Chase with the fifth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and the two have picked up right where they left off.

Chase broke several records as a rookie, including most receiving yards in a game by a rookie with 266.

Those 266 yards (and three touchdowns) came in Week 17 against this Chiefs defence, a defence that just allowed 36 points to the Buffalo Bills and has given up 25.5 points per game since Week 15, after holding offences to just 20.6 per game in the opening 14 weeks of the season.

When Chase isn’t popping off, the Bengals have other weapons in the passing game – Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah help pick up the slack.

On the ground, Joe Mixon rushed for a career-best 1,203 yards this season, and has added 102 yards on the ground through two playoff games.

They key to beating the Chiefs this season has been scoring at least 27 points in a game.

All of Kansas City’s losses came in games where their opponent scored 27 points and they went 3-5 in the eight games that happened.

The Bengals managed to eclipse the 27-point mark eight times this season, and averaged 27.05 points per game.

They also scored 29.33 points per game in their six regular-season games against playoff teams, but have scored just 45 points (22.5 per game) in their two playoff games.

If the offence catches fire, they could pull off the upset.

MAHOMES MAGIC

As if we already didn’t know, it appears anytime left in the game is too much time for Patrick Mahomes.

After the two-minute warning against the Bills in the Divisional Round, Mahomes passed for 119 yards and helped put 10 points on the board, despite possessing the ball for just 1:02 of game-time.

Unfortunately for Bills fans, the coin toss would keep their offence on the sideline as they watched Mahomes lead his team on an eight play, 69-yard drive ending with a Travis Kelce touchdown.

Mahomes has been prolific since getting his start with the Chiefs, and his record in the playoffs has him on a fast track to all-time greatness.

The quarterback is 8-2 in his postseason career, throwing for 25 passes and five interceptions in those games.

And his ability to move the ball on the ground is playing a huge part in taking his game to another level.

During his regular-season career, Mahomes averages 5.0 yards per rushing attempt and 18.9 yards per game.

In the playoffs, those numbers balloon to 5.8 and 30.4.

In his last eight playoff games, the quarterback has rushed the ball at least five times in all but two games, averaging 6.06 yards per carry and 35.62 yards per game.

He enters Sunday with an over / under of 28.5 yards, a number he has gone over in his last three playoff games and four of his last six games this season.

THE LINE

I jumped on the Bengals +7 and +270 on the moneyline once this line opened.

I assumed the public would back the Bengals and bet that number down a point or two.

I assumed wrong.

As of Friday afternoon, the Chiefs have received 61 per cent of the money on the spread, and 86 per cent of moneyline wagers.

However, the spread has ever so slightly moved to +7.5, while the moneyline has jumped to +285.

As a Bengals backer, I like being on the opposite side of the public.

Getting a team that has won 12 games this season as a +7.5 underdog is too good for me to pass up on.

Pick: Bengals +7.5