Morikawa’s case to win The Players

TSN Edge’s Luke Bellus dives into Collin Morikawa’s chances at The Players Championship, and highlights a few reasons why he could be in store for a big weekend at TPC Sawgrass. 

*All Strokes gained data via RICKRUNGOOD.com*

World No. 2 golfer Collin Morikawa heads to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., this week in search of his first Players Championship.

The 25-year-old has been no stranger to winning to start his career, picking up six wins on the PGA and DP World Tour since turning professional in 2019.

After joining Tiger Woods as the second player to win The Open and PGA Championship before the age of 25, Morikawa heads to TPC Sawgrass in search for the illustrious title that is widely known as the “fifth major.”

A few months ago, I was having a conversation with my good friend Michael Tabascio, someone who I respect a ton when it comes to the world of golf… and many other things, and our chat led us to Morikawa’s chance at the Players this year.

After doing some digging, I’m ready to present the case.

After struggling with his game following a lower-back injury that started at the Tokyo Olympics, Morikawa has quietly found his elite level of play and is primed to appear at the top of the leaderboard on Sunday in this star-studded field.

While Morikawa’s price to win the event at +1400 is certainly intriguing, I also like him at +120 to finish inside the Top 10, and like his number of +110 to beat Jon Rahm in a head-to-head matchup.

Rahm, while still the No. 1 golfer in the world, has really struggled on the greens lately, losing at least 2.30 strokes putting in three straight events and has also lost strokes around the green in all of his last five events.

We’ll dive into my points in just a minute, but don’t just take my word for it.

Adam Scully, producer and co-host of TSN’s Golf Talk Canada, is riding with Morikawa as one of his guys this weekend as well.

Scully’s take: We all know Morikawa is one of the best ball strikers in the world. This season, he's second on the PGA Tour in greens in regulation and inside the top eight in strokes gained approach and off the tee. But the biggest difference in Morikawa's game has been with the flatstick, where he's fourth in strokes gained putting. Last season, he was 178th. Morikawa has turned the weakness of his game into a strength. If he can maintain this level of putting, I not only expect him to play well this week at TPC Sawgrass, but also at all the majors this season.

Making the case for Morikawa

Don’t let the lack of a track record at this event fool you. Morikawa has already shown the ability to win an event in his first attempt, and he’s spent much more time with this course in tournament conditions than you’d think.

Last year, despite finishing tied for 41st, Morikawa shot up the leaderboard thanks to a Sunday 66, tying him for the low round of the day.

On top of that, Morikawa was in the field during the 2020 season; however, the tournament was cancelled after the opening round due to COVID-19.

On that Thursday in 2020, at age 23 and having won just one tour event at this point of his career, Morikawa worked his way around TPC Sawgrass, firing five birdies and sat tied for seventh after shooting 68.

He has played five tournament rounds on this course and has managed to shoot better than par on three occasions. He also has 22 birdies in five rounds at the Stadium Course.

Trending in the right direction

After losing strokes to the field in three consecutive events in late August/early September, Morikawa has gained at least 5.50 strokes on the field in six of his past eight events.

Those events include a win in Dubai at the DP World Tour Championship, a runner-up at The Genesis Invitational and The CJ Cup, and three other top-seven finishes.

The last four winners of the Players – Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, and Si Woo Kim – all showed good form ahead of their win at TPC Sawgrass, gaining at least 2-plus strokes on approach in the event prior to the tournament.

Morikawa not only gained 2.56 strokes on approach in his last event at The Genesis Invitational, but he has gained at least 2-plus strokes on approach in all his three last measured rounds on tour.

The key to success

Already known as one of the best iron players on tour, it’s the putter that unlocks Morikawa’s ceiling.

Since 2019, Morikawa has gained at least 2.00 strokes putting on the field in 10 events.

He has won three of those 10 tournaments and finished inside the top five in eight of those.

Last year, Morikawa lost strokes putting on Thursday (-2.44) and Saturday (-3.33) but found a way to be a small gainer on Friday with 0.35 strokes gained putting and was a massive gainer on Sunday with his 3.34 strokes gained.

If Morikawa can find a way to gain just half a stroke per round and add it to the elite ball striking he possesses, things could line up for the 25-year-old this week.

Take Morikawa at his word

A golfer can have all the skill in the world, but if he shows up to a course that doesn't fit his game, trouble could be around the corner.

Take Jordan Spieth, for example. One of the best players on Tour since 2014, he has played this event seven times.

In 2014 he came up just short, finishing tied for fourth.

Since then, he has played this event six times and has missed the cut four times, with his best finish being a T41 in 2018.

Some courses just don’t line up with certain players.

But that isn’t the case with TPC Sawgrass, and the No.2-ranked golfer in the world.

Following his Sunday 66 last season, Morikawa met with the media and talked about how this course fits his eye.

"I feel comfortable," he said. "A lot of tee shots I feel comfortable. I need to figure out how to hit a draw 3-wood off 2 because I was 0 for 4 this week. But promise you in a year I'll figure that out."