TSN Edge’s Do’s and Don’ts of betting March Madness

What a wonderful time on the calendar.

It’s the middle of March and you’re reading a college basketball betting article so I don’t need to tell you what time of year it is either.

The field is set, the bracket is ready and there’s just one thing left to do.

Hunt some winners.

Here at the TSN Edge we have a staff filled with degener… er, experienced people in the gambling industry who know a thing or two about navigating the tricky waters that is betting college basketball.

Before the games get started, let’s dive into our staff’s do’s and don’ts on betting March Madness.

Do: Manage your bankroll

Let’s take a moment here to remember this is a marathon, not a sprint. You’re going to have access to all the college basketball in the world during the next six weeks. It’s crucial that you set aside a certain amount of money for each round to ensure you get the most bang for your buck every round of the tournament. Managing your bankroll is important on every given day as a sports bettor, but the level of importance is 10x when there’s 32 college basketball games on national television over a 36-hour stretch.

Don’t: Fall in love with taking overs

Boo this man, he’s betting the under... I know, I know. But here’s the thing, there’s something glorious about sweating out an under. Every possession is bigger than the last, who wins, who cares! Just keep the ball out of the basket. The numbers are with me here, too. Since 2009, just over 50 per cent of all March Madness games have gone under the total, meaning if you’re taking totals and find yourself with a bunch of overs, because “cheering for the over is more fun,” you might want to rethink.

Here's a good place to start, first-half unders have gone 42-20 in the opening round of the men’s tournament since 2019.

However, 13 of those overs involved one of the three top seeds, meaning all other games are 31-7 (81.6 per cent) to the under in the first half.

Nervous college kids playing in the biggest game of their life? Yeah, that checks out, I’ll definitely have some on my card this week.

Tekeyah Singh – Do: Pick at Least One 12 Seed to Knock Off a 5

Outside of the 2015 and 2018 Tournament, a 12 seed has won at least one of the four 5/12 matchups in each season dating back to the 2008 tournament. Since that year, 12 seeds are 22-30 with at least two advancing in one tourney six times in 10 years. Last year, it was Oregon State taking down Tennessee in the Round of 64. In 2019 we saw an incredible three 12 seeds advance past the first round. This year, I’ll be sure to have at least one on my bracket, and in my bets.

Don’t: Sleep on UConn   

UConn lost as many games this season as they have over the last two seasons combined. A whopping five losses. Yup, even in their down season they’re still a two seed as and are trending in the right direction after winning the Big East Championship. Paige Bueckers, after missing most of the season due to a knee injury, scored eight points in her return to the lineup on Senior Night, and after coming off the bench in each of UConn’s three Big East Tournament games could be ready for a return to the starting lineup.

“[Bueckers is] at the same levels that she was at before the surgery,” head coach Geno Auriemma said on Sunday. “So that’s a great sign.”

With Bueckers potentially back at full health, I’m rolling with the Huskies this year at +350 to be cutting down the nets at the end of the tournament.

Evan Render – Do: Pay attention to defensive metrics

It’s easy to look at a list of games and pick the best names with the biggest brands, but there’s more to handicapping this than what meets the eye. Out of the past 32 teams to make the final four over the last eight tournaments, 31 of them ranked in the top 40 in defensive efficiency. Who’s number one heading into this tournament? Texas Tech, a No. 3 seed. There’s value there. But the most telling statistic is with the favourites, Gonzaga. They’re the only team in the tournament who ranks top 10 on both sides of the ball, a large reason why many rightfully view this as their year to finally win.

Defence wins’ championships.

Wesley Cheng – Don’t: Bet on any projected NBA first overall pick to win the tournament

Not since Anthony Davis with Kentucky in 2012 has a first overall pick won the tournament. That was a decade ago. 

Since then, two didn't even make the event, one never played due to COVID and the other six prospects exited early (two being in the first round). 

Most mock drafts have Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga going first overall. Jabari Smith of Auburn and Paolo Banchero of Duke are also in the running.

 Eric “The Big E” Cohen – Do: Pay attention to the spread!!

If you are filling out your bracket and you are awarded extra points by taking a lower seed over a higher seed, take advantage of this by betting on all lower seeds that are favoured or just a slight underdog in the opening round.

For example, this year it would definitely make sense to ride with an 11 seed Michigan team, who despite having a disappointing regular season in the Big 10 are a 2.5 point favourite against Colorado State.

It’s unheard of to see a 13 seed only getting 2 points against a 4 seed but that is the case with number 13 South Dakota State against Providence.

Other lower seeds that would fall into this category would be Virginia Tech who despite also being an 11 seed are only a one-point underdog to Texas.

No. 9 Memphis is a 2.5 point favourite against Boise State. 

No. 10 Davidson is only a one-point underdog to Michigan State, who are always a popular pick strictly based on Tom Izzo’s tournament track record.

No. 10 Loyola Chicago is a 1 point favourite against Ohio State.

These lower seeds are all worth taking in the first round of your bracket if you are rewarded by taking what is considered “an upset” even though the actual point spread says differently.

Domenic Padula: Don’t Fall In Love With The Allure Of The Cinderella Story

Nobody actually knows exactly what’s going to happen once the March Madness begins.

And while the allure of the Cinderella story will be tempting to chase, the reality is that you don’t want to get carried away chasing too many upsets with your money on the line.

Here are a few key trends to consider.

No. 1 seeds have won four straight national championships and 11 of the last 14 titles overall.

We’re looking at Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor.

Meanwhile, 21 of the last 29 national champions have entered the tournament with single-digit odds.

This year’s list features Gonzaga (+300), Arizona (+600), Kentucky (+850) and Kansas (+850).

Also, the favourite to win the national title has reached the Final Four in seven of the last nine tournaments, winning the championship four times in that span. 

So maybe you don’t bet on Gonzaga to win it all, but also maybe don’t bet on them to lose in the Round of 64?!

Finally, one other trend that caught my eye from ESPN Stats & Info: Since ESPN’s Basketball Power Index was first used in 2007, the national champion has come from one of the top four teams in 12 of the 14 seasons.

The only exceptions were UCONN in 2011 and then UCONN again in 2014.

If that trend continues, then one of the four teams that rank in the top-four in BPI – Gonzaga, Kentucky, Houston and Tennessee – will win the national title.

I’m not telling you NOT to bet on underdogs.

All I’m saying is don’t get carried away searching for the Cinderella story that we might not get.

And for what it’s worth, I’m taking Kentucky to win the national championship over Kansas as my pick for this year’s March Madness.