Columnist image

TSN Baseball Insider

Archive

I defended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he got off to a slow start last season because he was a young player under immense pressure. He was overanxious and it looked like he was trying too hard.

I was finding excuses to explain why my expectations weren’t being fulfilled instead of truly evaluating his performance.

The Blue Jays slugger did improve as the season went along. When it was over, he had put together a respectable rookie year. Everyone would have been very pleased if his name wasn’t Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

But he is the son of a Hall of Famer and he performed like a Hall of Famer in the minor leagues. Blue Jays fans expected him to be a cornerstone piece of a young, exciting franchise on the rise.

But Guerrero hasn’t hit for average or been the on-base machine the baseball world expected. He isn’t the slugger or run producer Jays fans thought they were getting.

Why? Was all of the hype surrounding Guerrero wrong, or is something else at play?

No more excuses. The 21-year-old Guerrero hits too many balls on the ground and doesn’t drive the ball. In technical terms, the launch angle in his swing is well below average. He is effectively swinging flat to the baseball instead of hitting the bottom of the ball to create backspin and lift.

Guerrero has never had extraordinary launch angle, even in the minors. His was 10 to 12 degrees, depending on who was doing the evaluating.

Like many people, I believed Guerrero would take what he learned last year and use it to make this his breakout season.

I know Blue Jays coaches told Guerrero where he needed to improve. They didn’t talk about launch angle specifically; they talked about bat path and timing and having a better plan at the plate. He needed to relax and slow the game down. He needed to get his timing right and stop jumping at the baseball. He needed to hunt fastballs and be aggressive early in the count. He needed to drive the baseball and not just be satisfied with contact. 

But Guerrero is off to a bit of a slow start. Not surprisingly, his launch angle is low again. He just recently raised it to 7.6 degrees, which is slightly above his 6.7 mark from last year but still well below the league average of 11.9. His ground ball rate is 64.3 per cent so far in 2020, which is much higher than his 49.6 per cent mark from last year.

There is much more production to be had when one hits the ball in the air. The Jays attempted to address Guerrero’s bat path and approach, but it hasn’t improved and is limiting his overall production. The Home Run Derby isn’t real game action, but that memorable night last summer did show a glimpse of what he can be with more launch angle.

I saw Guerrero play in the minors, and he was unbelievable. He got to the majors at such a young age because he was a man among boys. He was a slugging machine who was patiently aggressive as a hitter. He didn’t chase pitches out of the zone and punished those in the zone. He hunted fastballs and then jumped out of his shoes to crush them. Guerrero’s production would grow tremendously If he could even get back to his minor-league launch angle.

He remains a work in progress at the plate. We were spoiled by other young phenoms like Ronald Acuna Jr. and Juan Soto, who arrived in the majors and immediately performed like superstars. Guerrero’s day may still come, but he is going to have to adjust to get there. It isn’t coming naturally. 

Injuries becoming a major issue

The injuries are mounting across Major League Baseball. We have numerous pitchers already headed for surgery to fix elbow and shoulder problems. We have pitchers and position players with hamstring and quad injuries.

I knew this season would be a war of attrition because of COVID-19, but I never anticipated this level of injuries. I knew players would be vulnerable because of the quick return and the short spring training, but I overestimated the physical conditioning levels upon their arrival in summer camp. Many players were nowhere near as ready as they needed to be upon their return.

I spoke with many managers during the shutdown and they all indicated that they wanted their pitchers to throttle their throwing program down to where they would usually be in late December or early January. That is when they are just playing catch and starting to long toss to build arm strength. Pitchers might throw an occasional bullpen session in early January, but it really to just get a feel for their delivery. There is no real intensity to it. That is a major downshift from where pitchers were when the pandemic hit in mid-March.

It was a mistake. Pitchers should have maintained their intensity levels to be at least simulated game-ready. Their arms were not appropriately prepared after the three-week ramp up for real-game conditions. I understand that part of the value of the shortened season was that arms would feel fresher, but a fresh arm improperly conditioned is a vulnerable arm. 

It seems that players weren’t physically prepared to be standing for hours at a time in spikes enduring the heat and physical activity. To their credit, players are speaking up when they feel a twinge in their legs and are being removed from the game or held out of the lineup. However, all of this leads to inconsistency of performance for individuals and teams. 

Even position players should have done more than just play catch and take batting practice. They needed to do more work on their legs to build stamina and endurance.

Depth has never been as important to an organization as it is this season. Who would have thought that a 60-game season with a 60-player pool would be such a challenge to navigate?

Spitting Seeds

- The Miami Marlins have been the best and worst story in baseball in this young season. They had 18 players test positive for COVID-19 because of lapses in health and safety protocols. The small-market team is currently paying 48 players major- league salaries they replace the sick players with healthy ones. They’ve searched far and wide to do so. They brought up minor leaguers, claimed players on waivers, made trades and signed free agents in the past 10 days to replenish their player pool. Amazingly, they are 6-1 and in first place in the NL East. I still think they will come in last in the division and won’t win more than 25 games, but they have shown tremendous grit and determination.

- Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is showing that he is an elite performer. He homered in five straight games this week. ESPN baseball analyst Alex Rodriguez compared him to Tiger Woods, LeBron James and Michael Jordan. I think that is going too far at this stage of the game, but Judge is certainly an early candidate for AL MVP.

- Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout once again showed why he is the best player in the game. He and his wife welcomed their first child into the world this week. Trout was with his wife for the birth of their son, then returned to the Angels and homered three times in his first two games back – including his very first at-bat. Amazing.

- The Colorado Rockies went 37-23 over one 60-game span last season and 16-44 over another. They are proof that you can be anybody in a 60-game season. This year they are 9-3 and in first place in the NL West.  They were a playoff team in 2018 and then fell apart in 2019. It was so bad last year that their star player, Nolan Arenado, wanted to be traded just one season into his eight-year contract. I wonder if he will change his mind now as they look playoff bound.

- Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. has a chance to become the face of baseball. He has the talent, personality and style. The San Diego market will work against him, but he is young enough to sign a big free-agent contract five years from now in a large market and become the most recognized player in the game. He is a dynamic person in every sense of the word. I am more and more impressed by him every time I watch him play.

- Mike Soroka’s season is over after the Atlanta Braves starter tore his Achilles tendon in a game this week while trying to cover first base. It is a devastating blow to the Braves (9-5) chances to repeat as NL East Division champs. Even if they make the playoffs, they won’t go to the World Series without their Canadian ace. Soroka was that important to their chances.