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TSN Raptors Reporter

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Wednesday was supposed to be the final day of the NBA’s regular season. With basketball on hold indefinitely due to the coronavirus pandemic, it’s looking more and more like we’ve seen the last of the 2019-20 campaign.

The league is keeping its options open in the hopes of salvaging at least an abbreviated version of the playoffs, but the reality is there’s simply too much uncertainty in the world at this time to determine whether or not that will be feasible.

What we do know, regardless of all that, is Toronto fans will be able to look back on this season with fond memories.

The Raptors have had a remarkable year, from their historic championship run last spring to their unlikely and unexpected defence of that title – without the player most responsible for winning it – over the past six months.

When Kawhi Leonard left for the Clippers in free agency, few saw Toronto remaining competitive, let alone replicating its success at the top of the association. But the Raptors were 46-18 when play stopped last month – identical to their record through 64 games in 2018-19. They sat second in the East and were the NBA’s third-best team, a couple games ahead of Leonard and the Clips.

We may not get to see how it plays out, but we can celebrate what the team, its players and its coaches have already accomplished.

At some point, when there are more answers and closure available, the league will hand out its annual end-of-season awards (most of them voted on by the media).

Thanks to their individual and collective success, at least a few Raptors will be in consideration. Here are the players (and coach) who figure to be in the running for that hardware, and their chances of winning:

 

Nick Nurse – Coach of the Year

Odds of winning: 70 per cent

Embedded ImageNurse won the title in his first season at the helm of an NBA team. Now, he’s the presumed frontrunner for Coach of the Year in his second. Not a bad way to begin his big-league head coaching career (he’s also the NBA’s all-time leader in winning percentage).

On top of saying goodbye to Leonard and Danny Green over the off-season, the Raptors lost 219 man-games to injury – fifth-most in the association. By mid-season, six of their top seven players had already missed at least 10 games. They only had their full roster twice all year.

With each of their key rotation players in and out of the lineup, Nurse and his staff were the lone constants. Whatever his active roster looked like on any given night, he always had them locked in and ready to play.

He brings out the best in his players, which is a big reason why so many of them enjoyed career seasons. He’s earned their trust and he puts them in a position to be successful, but he’s also not afraid to challenge them – privately and publicly – when he needs to, and that’s been a winning approach.

He’s innovative, open-minded, and he’s the architect of the NBA’s second-ranked defence.

As always you can make a compelling case for a number of candidates. Mike Budenholzer’s Bucks have had a historic season, though coaches sparingly win this thing two years in a row. Frank Vogel has successfully managed a ton of talent and ego in his first year with the Lakers and has them atop the West. Erik Spoelstra’s Heat, Nate McMillian’s Pacers, Billy Donovan’s Thunder and Taylor Jenkins’ Grizzlies have all overachieved.

Still, given the magnitude of what Toronto’s achieved, as well as the resume and reputation that Nurse has built, it would be a surprise if the Raptors’ coach didn’t claim the award.

Other candidates: Spoelstra, Budenholzer, Vogel, Donovan, Jenkins, McMillan, Mike Malone.

TSN pick: Nurse

 

Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry – All-NBA

Odds: Siakam 70 per cent, Lowry 35 per cent

Embedded ImageYou can make a compelling case for both Siakam and Lowry to end up on one of three All-NBA teams based on the seasons they’ve had. Both are deserving. Ultimately there are a few factors that could hurt them in the voting process.

Will voters reward two Raptors players? If the perception is that depth and coaching were the driving forces behind Toronto’s success, it’s possible the team’s two best players could split votes.

That the All-NBA is so rigid in terms of positional flexibility doesn’t help their cause either. Voters are still required to select a “centre” for each All-NBA team. Why not mirror All-Star voting and go with three frontcourt guys, or just eliminate positions altogether and reward the league’s top-15 players?

Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron James are locked in as first-team forwards. So, assuming Anthony Davis is listed as a forward, he’ll almost certainly be bumped to the second team and occupy a spot that could have gone to Siakam.

As it stands, six forwards will make All-NBA. Pencil in Antetokounmpo, James, Davis and Leonard, meaning there are two spots available for Siakam, Jayson Tatum, Paul George and Khris Middleton, among others. Those guys are all deserving – particularly Tatum and Middleton, who had fantastic seasons – so it’ll come down to preference for each voter.

Siakam’s chances seem pretty good, but the difference between making Second Team or Third Team is an expensive one. The maximum contract extension he signed in October will pay him 25 per cent of the league’s salary cap next season (with annual raises over the following three years).

In the unlikely event that he is voted All-NBA First Team he’ll make 29 per cent of the cap next season. He’ll earn 28 per cent of the cap if he makes All-NBA Second Team. However, there’s no additional compensation built into Siakam’s new contract if he makes the Third Team.

His first season in a leading role couldn’t have gone much better. There were some growing pains along the way, to be sure. That was to be expected, given the increase in responsibility and defensive attention. However, he mostly looked the part. He was voted into the All-Star Game as a starter, which should indicate that people – including the media – acknowledge how good and how valuable he’s become.

Some people recognize how good and valuable Lowry is, but the veteran point guard still doesn’t get the credit he deserves, and he probably never will. All the guy has done is make six straight All-Star Games, help lead the Raptors to their first championship, and continue to cement himself as the greatest player in franchise history.

Oh, and he refuses to age. At 33 – he turned 34 last month – Lowry averaged 19.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.3 steals this past season. Only three players in NBA history have ever put up those numbers at age 33 or older, while also shooting at least 35 per cent from three-point range: Larry Bird (1990-91), James (2017-18) and Lowry.

He figures to have more competition at the guard position, though. James Harden, Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard will get in. That leaves three spots for Lowry, Chris Paul, Jimmy Butler (assuming he’s listed as a guard), Kemba Walker, Russell Westbrook, Trae Young and Bradley Beal.

TSN picks:

First Team – Harden, Doncic, Antetokounmpo, James, Nikola Jokic

Second Team – Lillard, Lowry, Leonard, Davis, Bam Adebayo

Third Team – Paul, Butler, Tatum, Siakam, Rudy Gobert

 

Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell – Most Improved Player

Odds: Siakam 5 per cent, VanVleet 3 per cent, Powell 2 per cent

Embedded ImageIn the 34-year history of the award, no one has ever won Most Improved Player twice, let alone in back-to-back seasons. Siakam certainly has a case to become the first player to do it.

He took a big step forward in 2018-19, going from a bench player to fringe all-star. His scoring average improved by 9.6 points per game (from 7.3 to 16.9). Even those that were expecting Siakam to blossom in his third season didn’t anticipate him growing that much, that fast.

The leap he took this past season was arguably more impressive. Going from sidekick to top dog on an elite team is the toughest jump for a player to make. He averaged career-highs in points (23.6, +6.7 from last season), rebounds (7.5, +0.6), assists (3.6, +0.5) and minutes (35.5, +3.6).

His improvement wasn’t just a product of increased usage and responsibility, as some might argue. He had to learn, adapt and grow on the fly.

Still, it’s hard to see him getting the votes given the spirit of the award, which is usually given to a player who takes the league by storm, rather than an established star who is gradually improving.

Antetokounmpo won it in 2016-17 – the year he became an all-star. The following season he took another big leap, going from star to superstar. Sound familiar? He finished 12th in voting for Most Improved. Siakam should finish higher than 12th, but he probably won’t win the award again.

VanVleet should also get a few votes. He proved he could be a full-time starter this season and averaged career-highs across the board: 17.6 points (+6.6 from last year), 3.8 rebounds (+1.2), 6.6 assists (+1.8) and 1.9 steals (+1.0).

After a slow start to the season, Powell was a revelation and probably would’ve had a real shot at Most Improved if he didn’t miss 20 games. He nearly doubled his scoring average (from 8.6 points per game to 16.4) while shooting a career-high 50 per cent from the field. The injuries and perhaps splitting some votes with Siakam and VanVleet make him a long shot.

Other candidates: Brandon Ingram, Adebayo, Tatum, Doncic, Devonte’ Graham, Domantas Sabonis

TSN pick: Ingram

 

OG Anunoby, Siakam – All-Defensive Team

Odds: Anunoby 15%, Siakam 5%

Embedded ImageIt will be interesting to see if Anunoby’s late push will be enough to vault him into the conversation for the All-Defensive Team. The third-year forward was really coming on after the all-star break, especially as a defender. His upside on that end of the floor is elite and we were finally starting to see it on a nightly basis.

When the NBA came to a halt last month, Anunoby had recorded at least one steal in 15 straight games – tied for the third-longest streak in the league this past season. He totalled 37 steals over that stretch, including 13 of them in a two-game span. He became the 39th player in NBA history to record six or more steals in consecutive games, and just the ninth player to do it over the last decade.

Anunoby was the best perimeter defender on the NBA’s second-ranked defensive team. With Leonard and Green gone, he often guarded the opposition’s best scorer. He ranked 10th in the league in defensive win shares, 14th in defensive rating and 15th in defensive box plus-minus.

He will make multiple All-Defensive Teams by the time his career is done. You can bet on that. Will it happen for him this year? The odds aren’t as high as they probably should be. It will ultimately depend on whether his league-wide reputation is strong enough to steer votes away from more established defenders like Leonard, James, Butler and George, among others.

Primary competition: Leonard, James, Butler, Middleton, George

TSN picks:

First Team – Ben Simmons, Marcus Smart, Antetokounmpo, Davis, Gobert.

Second Team – Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Beverley, Leonard, James, Adebayo

 

Terence Davis – All-Rookie

Odds: 10 per cent

Embedded ImageIt would be great to see Davis get some recognition for what he accomplished in his first NBA season. He’s got a great story and, most importantly, he deserves it.

After making the team as an undrafted free agent, Davis was the only Raptors player to appear in all 64 games. If not for all the injuries, that probably wouldn’t have been the case, but Davis took advantage of each opportunity he was given.

He made his share of rookie mistakes, but he was also a valuable rotation player for a winning team. How many NBA freshmen can say that?

The Raptors outscored opponents by 225 points with Davis on the court. No other rookie was better than a plus-146. Davis also shot 40 per cent from beyond the arc – third among rookies who attempted at least 100 threes.

What will likely keep him off both All-Rookie teams is the same thing that kept him out of the Rising Stars Game at all-star weekend: he didn’t play or score as much as some of his peers on losing clubs.

Davis logged 17.0 minutes per game – 31st among rookies. As a result, he only averaged 7.7 points – 20th among first-year players. However, only two of the 19 guys that averaged more points than Davis did it for a team over .500 – the Miami Heat duo of Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro.

Shouldn’t we honour those that were efficient in their minutes and made winning contributions over some that put up empty numbers on high volume for bad teams?

Primary competition: RJ Barrett, P.J. Washington, De’Andre Hunter, Coby White, Darius Garland, Matisse Thybulle

TSN picks:

First Team – Ja Morant, Kendrick Nunn, Zion Williamson, Eric Paschall, Brandon Clarke

Second Team – Davis, Tyler Herro, Barrett, Washington, Rui Hachimura

 

Masai Ujiri – Executive of the Year

Odds: 8 per cent

Embedded ImageRemind me again why Ujiri didn’t win this award last year.

Here’s a rundown of the bold, franchise-altering moves he made in 2018-19, en route to winning a championship. He fired team’s winningest head coach (and soon-to-be Coach of the Year), Dwane Casey, and promoted Nurse. He traded one of its most beloved players ever, DeMar DeRozan, for Leonard and Green. Then he acquired Marc Gasol at the deadline.

Yet, he didn’t win. In fact, he didn’t come second or third, either. Inexplicably, Ujiri finished in fourth. The award went to Bucks general manager Jon Horst. Sure, his team had a great year, but their core was in place well before last season. His signature moves of 2018-19 were signing Lopez and trading for George Hill and Nikola Mirotic.

Although he did add undrafted rookie Davis and value signing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Ujiri is less deserving this season, as the Raptors’ top seven players were already on the roster going into the year.

That said, there’s no making sense of this award. Maybe Ujiri picks up some votes he should have gotten last season. Or, more likely, maybe Clippers president Lawrence Frank is rewarded for doing what Ujiri did a year earlier: landing Leonard.

It should be noted that Executive of the Year is the NBA’s only end-of-season award that the media doesn’t vote on. The league’s execs pick their own winner. They’re clearly not the most objective bunch.

Other candidates: Frank, Pat Riley

TSN pick: Frank

 

Kyle Lowry – MVP

Odds: 0.1 per cent

Embedded ImageRelax. I’m not suggesting Lowry should win MVP. I know he’s not winning it. He knows he’s not winning it. But based on the season he had and his importance to the NBA’s third best – and perhaps most surprising – team, the veteran point guard should be in line for some votes.

By this point you either understand and appreciate how Lowry impacts winning or you don’t, so there’s not much to say here.

Basketball-reference.com has him ninth on their MVP tracker. You can probably slot him as high as fourth, behind Antetokounmpo, James and Harden. I have him sixth, after the aforementioned top-three, Doncic and Davis.

Other candidates: Antetokounmpo, James, Harden

TSN pick: Antetokounmpo