Authenticity isn’t something you find everywhere you look.

It’s one reason why I initially became so attracted to sports betting markets.

From the initial lines set by the most experienced, savvy veteran oddsmakers to the public generating movements, I’ve always been fascinated by how sports betting markets reflect the perception of the players and the teams involved.

So when the Vegas Golden Knights opened at -430 to beat the Montreal Canadiens in their Stanley Cup semifinal series, my mind automatically went to the authenticity of that number and which way it would move ahead of Game 1.

As of this morning, Vegas is -500, which would make them the largest favourite in a Stanley Cup semifinal over the past 32 years.

Is the fact that number indicates an 83.3 per cent implied probability the Golden Knights advance reasonable?

Or is the fact that the Habs made it this far in the first place contrary to that price?

Here is the Morning Coffee for Monday June 14, 2021.

Vegas an overwhelming favourite versus Habs

The biggest issue with attempting to evaluate the Canadiens’ stock heading into the series is that we are dealing with two very different teams.

During the regular season, Montreal was the lowest-ranked team in the standings of the 16 that made the playoffs.

Their outlook didn’t seem much different after they fell behind three games to one in their opening-round series with the Toronto Maple Leafs and were one goal away from elimination in overtime of Game 5.

However, everything seemed to change after Nick Suzuki scored the winner to force a Game 6 versus Toronto.

Montreal has won seven straight, including a sweep of the Winnipeg Jets in the second round.

It isn’t just the final results that matter, either.

This is from the regular season:

Meanwhile, the Golden Knights enter Game 1 looking to extend a streak of their own after storming back from down two games to none against the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche with four straight wins.

Vegas is the top-seeded team remaining in the final four.

Even Canadiens’ fans would be surprised if their beloved Habs managed to win four of seven against the Golden Knights.

While there isn’t any value betting Vegas -500, I really can’t see Montreal winning more than one game in this best-of-seven.

The Golden Knights are +375 to sweep the Habs and +275 to win the series in five.

If you don’t think the Canadiens could win two or more versus Vegas, then taking the Golden Knights to win in four and to win in five is the best bet. 

Islanders strike first versus Lightning

The New York Islanders (+170) took Game 1 of their Stanley Cup semifinal series against the Tampa Bay Lightning with a 2-1 win on Sunday.

Mathew Barzal and Ryan Pulock scored for New York. Semyon Varlamov made 30 saves.

The Islanders opened at +240 to win the series. After taking the opener, New York is now -105 to win the best-of-seven – Tampa Bay is -115.

Teams that take a 1-0 lead in these playoffs have gone on to win eight of the 12 series so far.

Djokovic rallies to win French Open

Novak Djokovic (-300) rallied from down two sets to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas 6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 in the French Open final.

With the win, he became the third man in tennis history to complete the career Grand Slam twice, joining Rod Laver and Roy Emerson.

It was his sixth career comeback from a two-set deficit at a Grand Slam.

Djokovic was the second choice to win the title on the men’s side heading into the tournament at +400 – only Rafael Nadal (-120) had shorter odds.

He was as high as +290 live at the beginning of the third set after falling behind 2-0.

Joker is up to 19 Grand Slam titles – one fewer than both Nadal and Roger Federer for the most in men’s tennis history.

Djokovic is a +125 favourite to win Wimbledon.

Suns complete sweep of Nuggets

Chris Paul scored a game-high 37 points as the Phoenix Suns (-3) completed a four-game sweep of the Denver Nuggets with a 125-118 win in Game 4 on Sunday night.

Devin Booker scored 34 points with 11 boards.

Frustrations got the best of NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, who was ejected with the Nuggets down eight late in the third following a hard foul on Cameron Payne.

Phoenix was a -220 favourite to win the series.

The Suns, which were +2000 to win the NBA championship at the start of the playoffs, are now +450 to win it all.

Euro 2020 weekend wrap

The first seven games of Euro 2020 are in the books.

The only major surprise so far is Finland’s 1-0 win over Switzerland, which came in the aftermath of an absolutely terrifying incident involving Christian Eriksen, 

Finland was +1200 to win that match.

Top contenders England, Belgium and Italy all won their openers without ever really looking vulnerable.

The Netherlands, which entered the tournament at +1400 to win the title, escaped with a 3-2 win over Ukraine in an absolutely wild match in which the teams combined to score five goals in the second half.

Spain is next up among the top choices to win Euro 2020 as they take on Sweden this afternoon on TSN.

Then Group F takes the spotlight on Tuesday, with the highly anticipated showdown between France and Germany.

Palmetto Championship picks

I had to take the time to shout-out Adam Scully and Michael Harrison for their predictions for the Palmetto Championship this past week.

Scully correctly picked 22-year-old Garrick Higgo to earn his first PGA Tour victory at +4500 to win outright.

Harrison was all over Doc Redman, a +7000 long shot to win the tournament, to finish in the top-10. 

It was the perfect set up heading into our coverage for the US Open this week.

Make sure you check back in tonight for Harrison’s First Look At The Field for this week’s major, and then later again on Wednesday when Scully is joined by the rest of the Golf Talk Canada crew to make their predictions.