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Welcome to Week 3 in the NFL.

We begin with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football.

The Browns climbed as high as -5.5 at some sports books, but are currently just a 3.5-point favourite at FanDuel this morning.

Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 40.5 to 38.5.

If that number holds, it will be the lowest total of the season so far.

I’ve got that number circled with a couple of key trends to consider heading into Thursday Night Football.

Here’s the Morning Coffee for Thursday September 22nd, 2022.

FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night Football

One week after watching Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert go head-to-head in a battle between two of the top five choices to win the Super Bowl, it’s Mitch Trubisky versus Jacoby Brissett in prime time tonight.

While the numbers tell us we shouldn’t expect an offensive showcase, there are a couple of interesting underlying storylines to monitor.

 

 

First, let’s take a look at some notable trends.

Over the past three seasons, games with totals of 38.5 or lower are 7-0 to the under.

The under is also 7-2 in the last nine meetings between Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

I’m not done there.

The under was 11-5 last week and is 21-9-1 this season.

Prime time unders are 6-1 this season and 94-67-3 over the past three seasons.

 

 

Since the start of last season, the under is 13-5 in Thursday Night Football games.

With both teams playing on a short week and neither offence looking very explosive, those historical trends are impossible to ignore.

We’ve seen the reaction as the total for tonight’s game has dropped from 40.5 to 38.5 at FanDuel this week.

While everything is pointing towards the under on paper, it’s interesting that both offences might feel a little more pressure to open things up tonight for different reasons.

 

 

The Steelers’ offensive line has struggled to spark the run game, and the lack of shot plays by Trubisky has fans calling for rookie Kenny Pickett to replace him at quarterback.

Will Trubisky and offensive coordinator Matt Canada look to open things up a little bit tonight?

 

 

Meanwhile, the Browns have the best run games in the entire NFL, but if Pittsburgh can slow them down on the ground, it will put the ball in Brissett’s hands on third down.

We’ll see if the Steelers can slow down the Cleveland rushing attack enough to put some pressure on Brissett.

 

 

If they can’t, it could get ugly for Pittsburgh.

I’m expecting the Browns to win a low scoring game tonight, so for my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with

As for my FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s game, I’m expecting the Browns to win a low scoring game tonight, so I’ll combine Browns +3.5 with the alternate total under 45.5 for a two-leg SGP at -135.

The Pick: SGP: Browns +3.5 + Under 45.5 pays -135.

Judge Record Watch Continues

It isn’t often that the AL MVP favourite hits a pair of doubles and scores twice in a 14-2 win, yet his fans go home disappointed.

That was the case last night, as Judge had another great game but failed to match Roger Maris’ AL record for the most home runs in a single season.

While Yankees’ fans will have to wait another game to see if Judge can match the record, he did help his case for the AL Triple crown as he now leads in all three categories.

In fact, it’s more than that.

 

 

Meanwhile, Judge will get another shot at the record when New York hosts the rival Red Sox tonight.

 

Judge is +230 to hit a home run and +2000 to hit two home runs versus the Red Sox tonight.

Let’s see if he can deliver in front of another anxious crowd that is hoping they can be there to see the record home run hit.