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TSN Senior Reporter

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It’s match play time, that one occasion during the PGA Tour calendar when things shift away from counting strokes to taking on your opponent, mano a mano. The players are seeded and placed into brackets, so you’d think it would be easy to make picks. However, the favourites haven’t got a great track record at this tournament, at least not lately. Billy Horschel was ranked 32nd last year and went on to win. In 2019, Kevin Kisner started as the 48th seed and captured the title. That’s what match play can do and upsets happen more often than not. Here’s how things work this week: There are 64 players, slotted into 16 pods with four players in each. There’s a round-robin in each pod with the top player advancing to the single-knockout portion, leading to a champion. Here are some selections that may end up being the king of the match.

Favourites 

Justin Thomas +1200

Thomas doesn’t necessarily have the best record here. He made it to the semifinals in 2018 before losing to Bubba Watson and failed to make it out of group play on his four other appearances. But he has been playing very well of late with eight of his last nine starts inside the top 20. He was third at Valspar last week and good play translates no matter what the format. He’s due to win sooner or later. 
Group: Kevin Kisner, Marc Leishman, Luke List

Dustin Johnson +2000

Johnson won this event in 2017 but has been rather flat since then. So far this year, he’s only played four times on the PGA Tour, so it seems like he’s just getting warmed up. At the Players Championship, he found something in his game in the last round with the course-record-tying 63. And let’s not forget his record in match play, at least in the Ryder Cup. Last fall he went a perfect 5-0 against the Europeans. 
Group: Max Homa, Matthew Wolff, Mackenzie Hughes


Mid-Range

Embedded Image Billy Horschel +3000

The defending champ is back and coming in with some form, aside from a sinus infection that forced him to withdraw from the Players Championship. Prior to that, he was inside the top 16 in his four previous starts, including a tie for second at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Horschel is more attractive when you consider that putting is a great asset in match play, as he’s currently ninth in Strokes Gained: Putting. 
Group: Thomas Pieters, Tom Hoge, Min Woo Lee

Sergio Garcia +3500

Garcia has one of the best Ryder Cup match play records with a 25-13-7 mark. He’s been solid in this event, making it into the group of 16 eight times in his 19 appearances. He’s also been a quarter-finalist each of the last two years. After missing the cut in his first event of the year, Garcia has had seven solid finishes with a tie for seventh and a tie for 12th in there. He’ll need to get past Collin Morikawa, who is in his pod
Group: Collin Morikawa, Jason Kokrak, Robert MacIntyre


Dark Horses

Kevin Kisner +6500

The 2019 champion is another one of those guys you might pick because of his putting. He’s fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting. But you also might pick him because he’s a bulldog and loves the fight involved in match play. Will need to get past Justin Thomas to get out of his group but he’s done it before. 
Group: Thomas, Leishman, List

Keegan Bradley +9000

Bradley has been showing well in his last few starts. He finished fifth at the Players and was 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Not necessarily known as one of the great putters in the game, he’s been good with the flatstick in recent starts. In three of his last six events, he finished inside the top 20 in putting. He’s another gritty player who often finds a way to make a birdie just when he needs it. 
Group: Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth