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TSN Senior Reporter

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This week, the PGA Tour heads south of the border for the Mexico Open. The event is being held at the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Villarta Golf Course in Puerto Vallarta. It’s a par-71, 7,500-yard layout that will favour the big hitters as the holes are long and the rough is short. If there is a defence for the course, it could come in the form of wind as the gusts seem to always rise up in the afternoons. If the winds don’t blow, expect there to be some low scores. The field is not that deep with just six of the top 50 players from the Official World Golf Rankings entered but there are 10 Mexican golfers playing, a record for a PGA Tour event. 


Favourites
Jon Rahm +350
Rahm moved back into the No. 2 spot on the Official World Golf Ranking while sitting at home and likely changing diapers. This will be his first start since the Masters and he’s still looking for his first win since his U.S. Open title last June. The Spaniard sits 11th in driving distance and leads the PGA Tour in greens in regulation. Those two numbers indicate that it’s on the greens where Rahm is lacking. However after a stretch of poor putting, he had a good week at the Masters where he picked up nearly half a shot on the field in Strokes Gained: Putting. If he can putt, he can win. 

Gary Woodland +2000
Also making his first start since Augusta, Woodland enters this week with three top-eight finishes in his previous five events. Those were healthy signs for the player who has not shown a lot since his U.S. Open win in 2019. He has plenty of distance off the tee, sitting 14th on the PGA Tour in driving distance and his putter, which has been his weak link for much of his career, has been better but not necessarily consistent. He recorded five three-putts in two rounds at the Masters. Still, there’s enough good in Woodland’s game right now to take him into consideration this week. 


Mid-Range
Sebastian Munoz +2500
The Colombian golfer is having a consistent campaign, finishing inside the top 26 in four of his last six starts. In all of those six starts, he’s been on the positive side of Strokes Gained: Total, a good indication of an all-around strong game. Munoz seems be a player that could break out at any time and why not this week? Certainly a good pick for a top-10 at this venue where he’ll come in well rested, having not played since the Match Play. 

Matt Jones +5500
When you look at Jones’ results, there are some big finishes that stand out, such as a runner-up at the Valero Texas Open in his last start. There’s also a tie for 15th at Genesis and a third at the Sony Open at the start of the year. There are also five missed cuts in that stretch so it’s a nervy pick to be sure. But he is certainly long enough off the tee and has some touch around the greens. In this field, he’s an attractive option that will deliver some good value. 

Dark Horses
Adam Svensson +13000
This is one of those picks where the numbers don’t necessarily add up and there’s not a signature stat that will give some indication of the direction of his game, but Svensson has the ability to produce a good result at any time. He did that at the RBC Heritage two weeks ago where he finished tied for 26th and had a strong putting week. I like the value here and feel it’s worth a look, especially there aren’t many great options. 

Wyndham Clark +9000
It’s been a decent run for Clark, who has made the cut in his last four starts including a tie for 10th last week in New Orleans where he paired with Cameron Tringale. One of the tour’s bombers – he’s third in driving distance – Clark should be able to take advantage of the long course in Mexico this week. Been on the positive side of Strokes Gained: Total in three of his last four starts.