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TSN Senior Reporter

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This week’s field is a mediocre one, but that’s not new if you’re a Canadian golf fan. The spot on the schedule the week after the Open is one the RBC Canadian Open held for many years and it was difficult to attract top golfers to fly to Canada after a week on the links.

The 3M Championship has a similar issue with just 13 of the top 100 golfers in the world entered. That doesn’t mean there isn’t enough quality to find some gems here.

The course at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., is a par-71 playing over 7,400 yards so distance is important. But it’s not everything. Matt Wolff (2019) and Cameron Champ (2021) are two guys who can knock it a long way and did so in winning. But in 2020, Michael Thompson won at -19 and he is more in the bunter category than the bomber.

To Win

Adam Hadwin +2000

Hadwin has been playing some energized golf of late, that is if you overlook his last start at the John Deere. We’re chalking up the missed cut to fatigue as it came the week after his tie for seventh at the U.S. Open. In his last two starts at this tournament, he’s finished tied for sixth and fourth, a pretty good indication that he can play the course despite not being a long hitter. He can utilize his silky short game which is often how he gets low scores; he’s seventh in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. More than anything, it’s just time that Hadwin notched his second career victory.

Mavericky McNealy +2000

The owner of the coolest name in golf has played just once at this tournament. That would be last year where he was a respectable tied for 16th. He’s coming in showing some form as in his last three events he’s finished inside the top 16 including two top-10s. McNealy averages 306 yards off the tee and that’s no doubt one of the reasons he’s ranked second in eagles on the tour this year with 16 to his credit. His scoring average of 70.202 is also more than respectable. This would be a good week to pick up his first PGA Tour win.

Top 10

Adam Svensson +410

I keep going back to the well on Svensson and that’s because he just seems ready to bust out and this could be the week. He logged a sixth-place finish last week and has made the cut in his last seven starts. He’s also third on the PGA Tour in birdies, having drained 344 of them. If he can just make them at the opportune time and get rid of some over-par holes, a top-10 should be an easy finish.

Wyndham Clark +550

Has only had two top-10s this season but he arrives in Minnesota with some good form having made the cut in his last three starts. He ranks fifth in driving distance should the length of TPC Twin Cities shouldn’t be an issue and at the other end, he’s a very good putter sitting 26th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He tied for fifth here back in 2019.

Top 20

Michael Thompson +410

Some pretty good value for a guy who won this tournament two years ago. Thompson arrives here off a tie for ninth last week at the Barracuda Championship and has made the cut in five of his last six starts. He’s three for three in cuts made here. He has the 22nd best overall putting average, which should help a shorter hitter like him.

Brendan Steele +150

The value isn’t quite as good as Thompson but it’s easy to see why. Steele has made eight straight cuts including four finishes inside the top 20. He also had a tie for ninth at the PGA Championship as well as a tie for 13th at the Players back in March. Very good off the tee with both distance and accuracy, and hits a ton of greens. His putter is always a bit of a question mark but even with a mediocre week on the greens, he should do well. You can easily think of him for an outright win (+3400) or top 10 (+340) here.