Mar 30, 2023
Bob Weeks Picks Six – Valero Texas Open
The Valero Texas Open is known best for two things: the prize of cowboy boots that goes to the winner and the last shot to get into the field at the Masters. This week all those without an invitation to the year’s first major will be trying to tackle TPC San Antonio.
By Bob Weeks
The Valero Texas Open is known best for two things: the prize of cowboy boots that goes to the winner and the last shot to get into the field at the Masters. This week all those without an invitation to the year’s first major will be trying to tackle TPC San Antonio. Sandwiched between the Dell Technologies Match Play and the Masters, the field is understandably weak in terms of world ranking participants. Still, there’s plenty of quality. There are eight of the top 50 in the world entered and five of the top 25 players on the FedEx Cup standings. The course is not easy and over the years, it has been among the most difficult tests on the tour. That’s in large part due to the wind and getting the right side of the draw can be key as the intensity of the gusts changes throughout the day.
To Win
Tyrrell Hatton +1300
Making his debut at this tournament, Hatton comes in playing some solid golf. He’s had three top six finishes in his last five starts including a runner-up performance at the Players Championship. He ranks fifth in Scoring Average on the PGA Tour and is fourth in Bounce Back, a good number based on his well-known temper.
Corey Conners +2400
A past champion of this tournament, he comes in having made the cut here in all four of his starts. While he hasn’t had a great start to the year, there were some good signs at the Match Play last week that showed he is on the road to improvement. According to DataGolf, he was on the positive side of Strokes Gained for Off The Tee, Approach the Green and Putting. That’s just the second time he’s done that this season. He didn’t make it past the group stage but he is clearly on the road to better play.
Top 10
Taylor Montgomery +290
The rookie already has four top-10 finishes to his credit and much of the reason for that is his putting. He ranks third in Strokes Gained: Putting, first in Putting Average, first in Putts per Round and first in One Putt Percentage. Lost a playoff to Mac Hughes to get out of group stage last week at the Match Play
Matt Wallace +410
While the top guns were battling it out at the Match Play, Wallace was winning the opposite field tournament in the Dominican Republic. A 66 on Sunday lifted him to his first career PGA Tour win. The week before he tied for seventh at the Valspar so he has obviously found something with his game.
Top 20
Matt Kuchar +125
A nice performance at the Match Play for Kuchar, who always seems to play well in Austin. That finish came after two missed cuts. Which came after an eighth-place finish at the Genesis. So it’s kind of been feast or famine for the veteran this year. Getting off the tee and using his silky short game will be the keys for Kuchar this week but look for him to continue to play well.
Nick Taylor +220
Arguably having the best year of his career, Taylor has logged four top-10s so far and sits 19th in Strokes Gained: Total. He can point to his putting as one of the reasons for his strong play. Last year he ranked 136th in Putting Average and this season his sitting 11th. He wasn’t originally going to play this week but the last chance for a spot in the Masters was too tempting to pass up. He has great value at these odds.