Six of the seven Canadian teams are playing this Saturday, and given the tumult in Edmonton lately, maybe the Oilers need a breather.

Since the Montreal Canadiens and Ottawa Senators are already essentially eliminated, I wanted to focus on the matchups that have postseason implications.

Here are some of my best bets for Saturday’s NHL action.

Winnipeg Jets at Nashville Predators
Saturday, February 12 – 7 PM ET

I suspect Winnipeg Jets interim coach Dave Lowry is envious. The Nashville Predators’ hallmark is bullying, punch-you-in-the-mouth hockey. In a finesse league, the Predators relish a power game fuelled by ugly goals. Lowry decidedly wants his Jets to adopt this grinding identity, and in Winnipeg’s 2-0 victory over the Minnesota Wild on Wednesday night, there were signs of Lowry’s influence.

But one thing that differentiates the Predators from impersonators is how they blend skill into their bad-boy persona. While their first line of Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg can gash their opponents, I think Saturday’s matchup could be altered by the stick of superstar defenceman Roman Josi.

Josi is well known for his puck-handling and skating, and he can create a path to the net in a way few players in the league can. But Josi’s impact extends beyond electrifying solo rushes. Nashville also features him on faceoffs in important ways that Winnipeg will need to be hyper aware of.

In the Dallas game on Wednesday night, Nashville ran a set play for Josi where he interchanged with his defensive partner and powered the puck into the crease. It led to a scrum in front of the net, and a Nashville goal punched in by Yakov Trenin.

In another set play off an offensive zone draw, the Predators won the faceoff and steered the puck toward Duchene, who immediately looked toward Josi, who was diving to the net off the weak side. Dallas defused the gimmick, caught four Nashville players beneath the puck, and scored a goal off an odd-man rush. Dallas won this game because, while Josi hurt them on the Trenin goal, the Stars were able to sabotage his offensive siege and produce a goal of their own. Josi giveth, Josi taketh away. In most situations, Josi is the most dangerous player on the ice, but maybe Winnipeg can use Nashville’s force-feeding him to its advantage.

Since Jan. 1, Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been playing underwhelming hockey, and the unlikely risk of him stealing the game evaporates further because, with Winnipeg playing Friday night, backup goaltender Eric Comrie will probably be manning the net. Unlike Hellebuyck, Nashville goaltender Juuse Saros has been playing tremendous hockey since the new year, and with Nikolaj Ehlers missing from the Jets’ attack, a top-heavy forward group gets squeezed.

How much should be made of the Jets’ virtuoso defensive effort against the Wild? Winnipeg gapped up in the neutral zone and hampered the Wild’s speed in transition. The forwards were responsible defensively, and Minnesota struggled to manufacture shots in the slot. Minnesota finished the game with a paltry five high-danger chances.

But that appears to be a fluke. Since Lowry has taken over, the Jets rank seventh worst in expected goals against per hour and second worst in high-danger chances against per 60 minutes.

The Predators win 66 per cent of their games at home. I think they take care of business this weekend.

Pick: Predators -165

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks
Saturday, February 12 – 7 PM ET

One thing that is not debatable is the Toronto Maple Leafs’ consistency this season. In October, they lost four straight games. The only other time that Toronto has been dealt consecutive losses was at the start of December, and those defeats were in a back-to-back setting. 

The Maple Leafs have followed up a loss with a win seven times this season, and in six of those games they won in regulation. On Saturday, they face a Canucks team missing Quinn Hughes, who is indispensable to the blue line. The fact that they’ve won one and lost one since Hughes went into COVID protocol masks how much went wrong in the Canucks’ last two contests.

On Tuesday night, the Arizona Coyotes outchanced the Canucks 6-1 in high-danger opportunities in the first period, which stayed tied at zero. While the Coyotes still lost badly because, you know, they’re the Coyotes, Vancouver’s problems were nevertheless abundant when the game was competitive.

The Canucks surrendered the blue line. They struggled to defend foes in the blue paint. They looked clumsy chasing Arizona around their own end and in transition defence.

Against the Islanders, it was more of the same. The Canucks lost the game before the first TV timeout because, when they got trapped in the defensive zone, they couldn’t box out.

The Calgary Flames’ victory over the Maple Leafs on Thursday night demonstrated that Toronto still has vulnerabilities against teams that can strike off the rush. On the Andrew Mangiapane tally, the back-checking support was there from forward Michael Bunting. Instead, the fault lay in defenceman Justin Holl failing to close his gap.

With Elias Lindholm’s goal, three forecheckers got caught dozing in the neutral zone and Johnny Gaudreau challenged Toronto up the gut. Gaudreau, ever the wizard with the puck, exploited the lax Toronto defence by slipping a pass to Lindholm on the back side. But Vancouver is not Calgary. Can the Canucks, who are a forechecking team first and foremost, outmanoeuvre the Maple Leafs in transition? I’m skeptical.

In the offensive zone, I think the Maple Leafs will exploit the Canucks skaters’ proclivity for clustering below the top of the circles. Toronto will surely pull Vancouver’s defencemen toward the point to spread them out, and whether Vancouver has the mobility to squelch the Maple Leafs’ give-and-go’s is an open question. Furthermore, Toronto’s defencemen will have room to step up and hammer shots into traffic from the high slot. This sounds like a recipe for disaster for Vancouver.

If you wake up on Sunday cursing my name, irate that you lost on this bet, it will be because of goaltending. Canary, we see you in the coal mine! For the Canucks, Thatcher Demko can steal a game. Stats guru Mike Kelly from NHL Network had a tweet recently about Demko posting positive Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in a large amount of his games this year.

On the Leafs’ side, goaltender Jack Campbell looks like he is cratering, which doesn’t inspire confidence. Maybe that means Petr Mrazek gets the start, but what is obvious is the Canucks have the goaltending advantage. Still, it’s not enough to dissuade me, nor should it dissuade you.

Pick: Maple Leafs -170

New York Islanders at Calgary Flames
Saturday, February 12 – 10 PM ET

The Calgary Flames still can’t garner any respect. Their odds to win the Stanley Cup are +3000. All eight Eastern Conference teams that have all but secured their playoffs spots have shorter odds. Four teams have shorter odds to win the Western Conference, and Nashville has the same odds, +1200.

Yet the Golden Knights, one of the heavy favourites to win the West, got waxed 6-0 by Calgary on Wednesday night. On Jan. 24 the St. Louis Blues, who also have shorter odds than Calgary, got drubbed by the Flames 7-1. And in the Flames’ last game, they beat the Maple Leafs 5-2, despite it being their second game in the last two nights.

With the Flames, there’s a lot to like. Their first line mauls opponents. They have a dominant shutdown line. At 5-on-5, this team is elite in the analytics. In special teams, they are strong, and goaltender Jacob Markstrom has been playing very well of late! Since 2022 started, only six goaltenders who have played 10 or more games have a better GSAx.

Apparently, losing 3-0 to the Seattle Kraken before the All-Star Break was the final straw for Islanders coach Barry Trotz. When they returned to action on Wednesday night, up was down and cats were pals with dogs. Trotz split up Matt Martin, Casey Czikas and Cal Clutterbuck. Clutterbuck joined Mathew Barzal and Anders Lee on the first line. Czikas and Martin played with Anthony Beauvillier. And Ross Johnston teamed up with Brock Nelson and Josh Bailey. The much celebrated fourth line was split up and distributed among three different lines. The skill guys were bunking with the grit men.

And it worked! The Islanders crushed Vancouver, and with Ryan Pulock recently returning to the lineup, it seemed like a sliver of normalcy had returned.

Despite the Islanders’ recent thumping of the Canucks, New York’s modus operandi is scoring just enough to win. In their previous 10 games before facing the Canucks, the Islanders’ goals per game at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes was 2.3, good for 17th in the NHL. But their goals against was 1.86, which is fifth. In expected goals and high-danger chances, it’s the same trend. The stingy defence helps compensate for their pedestrian offence. Bottom line: the Islanders won’t dominate possession, but they want to thwart any scoring ambitions you have.

While their last two games have been less favourable in the analytics, the Flames’ arrow seems directly pointed up, and I think New York will struggle to stop them. I think they could utilize their transition game to feast on the Islanders.

Gaudreau leaks out every time the puck is about to change possession in the defensive zone, and he is especially gifted at buying time once he carries the puck into the high slot, allowing his teammates to find time and space.

The Flames understand how much attention the Gaudreau line commands, and they can feature their defencemen as weapons, too. On Noah Hanifin’s goal against Toronto, the Gaudreau line drifted toward the high slot or planted itself in the middle, opening up the backdoor defenceman-to-defenceman pass. Even when the Gaudreau line is not directly beating you, clinging to it can leave you exposed.

The Flames are humming, and I plan to profit. Because the Islanders play Friday night, Calgary is spared the terrifying prospect of facing Ilya Sorokin. The Flames have outstanding underlying metrics at home and they get New York on the second night of a back-to-back. I’ll take that with glee.

Pick: Flames -175