At this time just over a month ago, it didn’t look like we were going to make it to an early April start to the season. Fresh off the latest round of failed collective bargaining agreement negotiations, commissioner Rob Manfred announced MLB was cancelling the first two series of the season and pushing back Opening Day a week.

The more days that went by without the league and MLB Players Association reaching a deal, the more games that would be cancelled. Over the course of a few long days, it looked like no longer like a question of when we would get baseball in 2022, but if.

Then, somehow, someway, on the 99th day of the lockout, they figured things out. The season – all 162 games no less – was saved. And we couldn’t be happier.

With Opening Day just two days away, here is a team-by-team look at the American League Central division, which got a lot more competitive with the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins swinging big in the off-season.


 

Chicago White Sox

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2021 Record: 93-69

Key Additions: C Reese McGuire, INF/OF Josh Harrison, OF A.J. Pollock, P Joe Kelly, P Vince Velasquez, P Kendall Graveman

Key Losses: C Zack Collins, 2B Cesar Hernandez, OF Billy Hamilton, P Carlos Rodon, P Ryan Tepera, P Craig Kimbrel

The White Sox went into one of baseball’s deeper rebuilds over the past decade, recording seven straight losing seasons from 2013 to 2019. And then prospects started to arrive, players developed, a little money was spent and the Southsiders started winning games, making the playoffs in back-to-back years in 2020 and 2021. But progress is rarely linear.

Despite winning 93 games last season – a high since the World Series-winning team swept the Houston Astros in 2005 – Chicago was bounced in the first round for the second consecutive year, losing their division series to the Astros in four games by a combined 13 runs. As the cliché goes, young teams often need to learn how to lose before they learn how to win. And they’re well positioned to do just that this season.

The case for: When healthy, the White Sox have one of the most potent and balanced lineups in all of baseball. They’re bringing back pretty much the same lineup that finished sixth in MLB in offensive fWAR (25.2), fourth in WRC+ (109) and third in on-base percentage (.336). With most of their hitters either in or entering their prime, there’s no reason to think the White Sox won’t continue to produce runs at a high level.

The case against: “When healthy” is the big key here. Only two Jose Abreu and Yoan Moncada appeared in more than 130 games last season. Outfielders Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez were limited to just 68 and 55 games, respectively. They still had no issue scoring runs last season, but will need guys to stay on the field to build on last year’s success.

 

Cleveland Guardians

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2021 Record: 80-82

Key Additions: C Luke Maile, C Sandy Leon, P Tobias Myers

Key Losses: C Roberto Perez, C Wilson Ramos, P Nick Wittgren, P Blake Parker, P J.C. Mejia

Cleveland was thoroughly mediocre in 2021. On both sides of the ball. They ranked 18th in runs scores, 19th in offensive fWAR, slugged a 16th-best .407 and finished 19th in wRC+. On the mound they were 13th in team ERA, 10th in FIP and 22nd in fWAR. Oh, and they went 80-82 while ranking 21st in attendance, falling out of the playoff race officially in the season’s final weeks.

They weren’t particularly bad at anything but weren’t really good at anything, either. And they basically punted on the off-season with catcher Luke Maile being their most notable big-league addition. Unless there’s a drastic shift among the players they already have, it’s hard to see much more than the name of the team being different in 2022.

The case for: The Guardians made it through another off-season without trading superstar Jose Ramirez, one of the game’s more consistently valuable players. Speedster Myles Straw was quite effective after coming over from the Houston Astros in a mid-season trade and a lot of people are excited to see what Steven Kwan can do against big league pitching after a big bump in power in the minors last season.

The case against: We’ve seen this movie before with Cleveland. Ramirez is set to hit the free agent market in two seasons and ace Shane Bieber in three. Neither appear to have been deep in extension talks and it would come as a shock to few if there are trades involving one or both of them this year. Some teams pay guys to stick around, and some teams don’t.

 

Detroit Tigers

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2021 Record: 77-85

Key Additions: C Tucker Barnhart, SS Javier Baez, OF Austin Meadows, P Eduardo Rodriguez, P Andrew Chafin, P Michael Pineda

Key Losses: INF Niko Goodrum, P Matthew Boyd, P Julio Teheran, P Derek Holland, P Jose Urena

The Tigers did something this winter they hadn’t done in a while – spent. Detroit dished out $235.5 million in free agent contracts during the off-season, the fourth most around baseball and second most in the American League. And they did it in areas of need.

The Tigers were 20th in starters’ ERA (4.17) and 24th total innings (781.1) in 2021 but made one of the first big splashes of the signing period by inking left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77 million contract. Soon after they agreed to a six-year, $140 million deal with shortstop Javier Baez and were even reported to be kicking tires on Carlos Correa before the lockout hit. The Tigers finished 23rd in runs scored (697) and 24th in home runs (179) last season, areas Baez should boost.

The case for: While Rodriguez struggled with a 4.74 ERA last season, his underlying numbers indicate a bounce-back season could be in order. And what better place to do it than pitcher-friendly Comerica Park? Adding Rodriguez to a rotation with former top pick Casey Mize and 25-year-old Tarik Skubal is promising. And so is the arrival of Spencer Torkelson and soon enough, Riley Greene, Nos. 4 and 5 on MLB.com’s top prospects list.

The case against: There are signs of optimism, but this is still a team that’s probably a year or two away from being competitive. Somehow, Miguel Cabrera is still owed $64 million over the next two seasons with $30 million vesting options in 2024 and 2025. While he’s more than earned his money over the years, having that level of resources tied up in a (mostly) designated hitter struggling to hit league average is a challenge. 

 

Kansas City Royals

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2021 Record: 74-88

Key Additions: P Zack Greinke, P Amir Garrett, P Taylor Clarke

Key Losses: INF Hanser Alberto, P Greg Holland, P Wade Davis, P Jakob Junis

On paper, the Royals are probably the worst team in the Central division. They were in the bottom third of the entire league in most major pitching and hitting categories and didn’t do much in the off-season other than a ‘feel good’ reunion with starter Zack Greinke on a one-year deal. Which has potential to work, actually, but it isn’t likely to turn Kansas City into contenders.

Instead of the standings, all eyes should be on the consensus top prospect in baseball, Bobby Witt Jr. The 21-year-old was selected No. 2 in the 2019 MLB Draft and made a push for the Opening Day roster with a .400/.438/.700 slash line and two home runs in 11 spring training games. He is expected to start the season with the big club and is likely going to be one of the most fun storylines to watch from this division.

The case for: MLB.com has the Royals’ farm system as eighth-best heading into 2022. Not bad by any stretch, but also not tremendous considering Witt’s imminent arrival and the Royals’ short-term projections. Greinke, Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield are all scheduled to become free agents either this winter or the off-season after. If the Royals struggle this year like they’re expected to, trades involving some – or all – of those players would be a great way to add to the system.

The case against: After back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 and 2015, the Royals have finished last or second last in each of the past four seasons. FanGraphs has them projected to finish last place again. But hey, the new uniforms look pretty sweet.

 

Minnesota Twins

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2021 Record: 73-89

Key Additions: C Gary Sanchez, SS Carlos Correa, INF Gio Urshela, P Sonny Gray, P Dylan Bundy, P Joe Smith, P Chris Archer

Key Losses: C Mitch Garver, C Willians Astudillo, SS Andrelton Simmons, 3B Josh Donaldson, P Alex Colome, P Michael Pineda

As the lockout dragged on, it looked like the White Sox would run away with the Central again in 2022. But something changed when baseball came back and the Twins put themselves on the off-season winners shortlist with move after move. The biggest being a three-year deal with shortstop Carlos Correa.

While Correa can opt out after each year and may not be in the Twin Cities for long, he gives Minnesota one of the better infields in the AL and should be extra motivated to play his way into the deal he didn’t get this winter. The Twins were able to bring in Correa largely due to money they freed up by sending a package including Josh Donaldson to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela. Much maligned for his lapses behind the plate, Sanchez could benefit from a change of scenery after an extreme roller coaster ride during his seven years in New York.

The case for: Two things are true about Byron Buxton. When he’s on the field, Buxton has the ability to be one of the game’s best players. But sadly, he’s rarely on the field, missing 101 games last season. Amazingly, he still tallied an fWAR of 4.2. To put that in perspective, Shohei Ohtani – the unanimous AL MVP winner – had a combined fWAR of 8.1 in more than two and a half times the games while getting recognized for his contributions at the plate and on the mound. If Buxton is ever able to play a full season, it could be special.

The case against: The Twins desperately needed starting pitching, so they went out and acquired Sonny Gray. The problem is they still desperately need it. Ace Kenta Maeda is a question mark to pitch at all in 2022 and Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Chris Archer are all wild cards to varying degrees. Not a comforting thing for a team that was sixth-worst in starter’s ERA in 2021.