Thursday night

Denver at Kansas City (-3)

These two teams have been playing against each other since 1960, but Denver has won the last six, including the last four at Arrowhead Stadium. There is a lot of conversation that Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is regressing; that time is catching up with the veteran. When you consider the final eight games of last season and a very average game last week against the Baltimore Ravens, you can understand why. I don’t think he’s done yet. Coming off a short week, I look for Manning to bounce back and throw for more than the 175 yards he produced against the Ravens. Points will be a challenge in this game as both teams have excellent defences.

The pick: Denver

Sunday

Houston at Carolina (-3)

Texans head coach Bill O'Brien has an impressive history of helping quarterbacks improve. After one game, he has to figure out how to get the most out of Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett, who gets the start this week. That duo went a combined 3-for-14 on third down in the opener against the Chiefs. The Panthers will likely be without star linebacker Luke Kuechly who suffered a concussion in Week 1. Carolina gets the nod here because of proven quarterback play.

The pick: Panthers win and cover

Atlanta at New York Giants (-2)

If not for the turnovers by the Cowboys, the Giants would have lost by 10 points on Sunday night. Now they play a quarterback in Matt Ryan who has star receiver Julio Jones at his disposal. Jones has the ability to change a game with a single play. This will be Giants quarterback Eli Manning's 168th consecutive start. Dallas had two fourth-quarter drives against the Giants that looked easy. Matt Ryan will do the same.

The pick: Falcons

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-10)

It’s very tempting to take the Saints and the 10 points. Heading out on the road is not going to make the challenge to succeed any easier for rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. The Tampa Bay defence has to find a way to stop proven star Drew Brees after giving up 42 last week to first-time starter Marcus Mariota. Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will know he has two rookie offensive linemen to take advantage of, so expect Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Ali Marpet to be under pressure. The Saints struggled mightily in the red zone against the Cardinals in their opener. I expect that to be corrected this week.

The pick: Saints win and cover

San Francisco at Pittsburgh (-5)

I was impressed by the 49ers win over the Vikings on Monday night. San Francisco looked polished, energized and focused. Running back Carlos Hyde looked like Frank Gore in his prime, taking a lot of pressure off of quarterback Colin Kaepernick. The Steelers made mental mistakes more than physical mistakes in their loss to the Patriots. Those are the kinds of errors a team can correct quickly. The Steelers get the extra preparation time after playing last Thursday night and San Francisco has to travel east for a 1pm start. But I really liked what I saw from the 49ers.

The pick: 49ers on points

Detroit at Minnesota (-3)

I think one of the biggest surprises of Week 1 was the complete absence of defence from the Detroit Lions in their 33-28 loss to the Chargers in San Diego. The Lions allowed 33 consecutive points, a disturbing sign from a defence that ended last year as the best against the run and fourth in points allowed. On the positive side, a second-round draft pick Ameer Abdullah looked like he belonged as an NFL running back. Vikings star running back Adrian Peterson has a dismal return to action, gaining just 31 yards on 10 attempts. I’m not sure which team bounces back better from their Week 1 disaster, but the Vikings are back at home.

The pick: Vikings cover the points

Arizona (-2) at Chicago

The Bears looked good in their loss to the Packers. Chicago running back Matt Forte touched the football 29 times, the sort of workload that was absent last year as the Bears offence struggled. Chicago allowed two key kickoff returns against the Packers to set up short fields for Aaron Rodgers. That won't happen this week. The big thing for the Bears will be establishing a pass rush on Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer. Rodgers had way too much time to operate last week. Logic says take the Cardinals and the deep ball, but the Bears are more fundamentally sound under John Fox than they were at this time last year.

The pick: The Bears

New England at Buffalo (Pick ‘em)

I was very impressed with the Bills and the job they did against the Colts last Sunday. Buffalo gets defensive tackle Marcell Dareus back from suspension this week. If Buffalo can hold an Andrew Luck-led offence to 14 points, they can do the same to a Tom Brady-led offence, even with LeGarrette Blount back at running to team up with potential star Dion Lewis. The one thing you didn’t know about Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor was if he could he hit the deep ball accurately. His 51-yard touchdown toss to Percy Harvin proved he can. The challenge for the Patriots on defence will be finding a way to defend against Taylor's improvisational moments. Brady's career won/loss record against Buffalo is 23-3, and has a 58-19 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The pick: Bills

Tennessee (-1) at Cleveland

How impressive was Marcus Mariota last week? Fran Tarkenton, in 1961, was the last quarterback to throw four touchdown passes in his debut. Mariota had a perfect passer rating in Week 1! Mariota deserves all the hype, but don’t forget running back Bishop Sankey’s contributions: 74 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Last week it was Mariota vs. Winston; this week it’s Mariota vs. Manziel. I like Mariota.

The pick: The Titans

San Diego at Cincinnati (-3.5)

The Chargers rallied from down 21-3 against the Lions to win 33-28. The Bengals beat a Raiders team that could be considered the biggest disappointment in Week 1. I like the matchup of two very good multipurpose running backs in this game - Danny Woodhead for the Chargers and Giovani Bernard for the Bengals. Both were major assets last week and should be again this week. I don't like the 3.5 points enough to take the Bengals.

The pick: Chargers

St Louis (-3) at Washington

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins played well in Week 1, completing 67 per cent of his passes against a good Dolphins defence. The Rams’ unit is even better, and Cousins won’t have wide receiver DeSean Jackson to throw to. The St. Louis front seven has the ability to dictate any game. Keep an eye on the battle between a very good left tackle in Trent Williams of the Dolphins and Rams’ defensive end Robert Quinn.

The pick: The Rams cover

Miami (-6) at Jacksonville

Miami needed a punt return for a touchdown to beat Washington in Week 1, not exactly the day you want from your offence. Things were not much better in Jacksonville, where the offence managed just nine points. One positive was the play of rookie running back T.J. Yeldon. If Carolina can hold Jacksonville to nine points, Miami can do the same.

The pick: Dolphins cover

Baltimore (-6) at Oakland

The Ravens’ defence held the Broncos to 19 points and no touchdowns in Week 1, so expect them to dominate the Raiders. Baltimore will look to Courtney Upshaw to replace the injured Terrell Suggs, and I think he can get the job done. The Raiders’ secondary is a question mark after two players, including Charles Woodson, had to be helped off the field in Week 1. The Raiders quickly signed safety Taylor Mays, who may start this week. The Ravens didn’t get nearly enough from the offence last week.

The pick: Baltimore

Dallas at Philadelphia (-5)

Let me ask the most obvious question in the history of football: What determines winning or losing more than any single aspect of the game? The answer, of course, is turnovers. The Giants produced 17 points off of Dallas mistakes in Week 1, enough to turn what should have been an easy Cowboy win into a dramatic one-point win. The absence of receiver Dez Bryant is huge loss for Dallas, but football is a next-man-up sport. Tight end Gavin Escobar could be the Dallas player who benefits with more playing time. The big challenge for the Cowboys’ defence will be containing Eagles’ all-purpose threat Darren Sproles, who has the ability to change a game in a single play. There is too much talent on both sides to think that either team will dominate.

The pick: Dallas covers 

Seattle at Green Bay (-3.5)

These teams are too good in too many areas to expect the margin of victory to be more than a late field goal. The Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Rams, while the Packers are coming off a win over the Bears. Seattle is going to be a bit desperate because they can't go 0-2 and expect to grab home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. The Packers were smart to welcome back receiver James Jones. He’s no Jordy Nelson, but does have the confidence of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Why the Seahawks tried an onside kick to start overtime remains a mystery to me. There will be no big mistakes from Seattle this week, but I could see these two good teams pushing it into overtime. Packers win, Seattle on points.

The pick: Seattle

Monday

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-7)

Indianapolis played a very good defence in the Buffalo Bills in Week 1 and produced only 14 points. Quarterback Andrew Luck was hit five times, sacked twice and had to leave the pocket consistently throughout the game. Monday night they play another top defence in the New York Jets that can physically dominate any team, home or away. The Jets forced four turnovers against Cleveland in Week 1. The key is Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is fundamentally sound, analytically intelligent and familiar with the role of managing a game. Colts win, but the Jets keep it close.

The pick: Jets 

Record through Week 1: 7-8-1