Jul 20, 2020
Keefe continues to experiment with options around Matthews
A day after the Maple Leafs tried a new-look superstar line featuring Auston Matthews between John Tavares and Mitch Marner at practice, Travis Yost looks at which winger combination worked best with Toronto’s star centre this season.
By Travis Yost
“It’s an all-star game line.”
That was what Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Tyson Barrie had to say about a new-look line introduced by head coach Sheldon Keefe on Sunday. The line, featuring John Tavares and Mitch Marner on the wings of Auston Matthews, features the team’s three most creative offensive players.
Keefe, much like Mike Babcock before him, knows he will have to be strategic when it comes to deploying such a superstar line. Loading talent at the top of the lineup can create a force that teams around the league may not be able to handle, but it comes at the cost of being overwhelmed by the opposition when the other nine forwards are on the ice.
While I don’t foresee Toronto using this line regularly unless they are chasing a game late, I do think it’s interesting that Keefe continues to experiment with options around Matthews. The 22-year-old centre is comfortably the best player in the Maple Leafs lineup and much of their success hinges on what the team can get from their top line.
Ultimately, the question Toronto is trying to answer is this: How do you maximize the production of the Matthews line while also preserving some talent to spread through the rest of the lineup?
Before the season was paused, Toronto was militant about balancing the top six between Matthews and Tavares. The team has a number of winger options to put around them, with Marner, William Nylander, Zach Hyman and Andreas Johnsson the four players most regularly shuffled up and down the lineup.
Which combination worked best with Matthews? Would a superstar line even work as Keefe intends? Let’s look at the data from the 2019-20 season.
A few things jump off the page here, namely that Toronto tends to dominate teams with Matthews on the ice, irrespective of who his wingers are. Part of that is because of how good Matthews is, and part of it is because general manager Kyle Dubas has done a great job in locking in a gamut of talented wingers who are generally interchangeable.
The two regular lines Matthews played on this season were both on the right side of scoring margins, but his work with Marner and Hyman was the best fit. With that trio on the ice, the Maple Leafs outscored their opponents 25 to 18 (+7), and expected goals (20 to 14, +6) were in line. What won’t surprise you is this line – featuring an outstanding playmaker in Marner and an exceptional sniper in Matthews – shot nearly 12 per cent over the course of the season together.
The only line that converted on a higher percentage of chances? A hybrid version of the “all-star game line” coined by Barrie on Sunday – this one featuring Tavares on the wing of Matthews, but with Nylander in the third spot instead of Marner.
The sample size of ice time – just under 40 minutes of play – really isn’t big enough to draw any conclusions from, but it’s not surprising such a talented trio was able to score on 13 per cent of their chances when together.
When the play-in series against Columbus kicks off, I suspect that we will see Keefe do what he has done since taking over in November – letting Matthews run with the likes of Hyman and Marner, and putting the best remaining talent around Tavares on the second line.
But it will be fascinating to see what the coaching staff does if Toronto is trying to equalize late, or if they somehow fall behind in the series early. The Blue Jackets defence is a tough nut to crack, and it may take overpowering their five-man unit with as much offensive firepower as possible to push Toronto through to the second round.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Hockey Reference