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DUNEDIN, Fla. — It’s easy to sit back pouring over the Toronto Blue Jays depth chart and envision a long October run.

The depth and talent in the rotation and a potent top-five-in-baseball offence make it easy to dream on.

Oftentimes, however, baseball doesn’t work that way.

Injuries happen, things go wrong, and teams have to grind to get through 162 games.

Pete Walker’s decade-long tenure as Blue Jays pitching coach has provided some perspective when it comes to entering a season with expectations as high as they are in 2022.

“I was here in 2013 and there were very high expectations back then and things didn’t go so well for that team for different reasons,” Walker said, recalling the club that quickly let things slip away early in the season. “I think the expectations are high but we still know we need to show up every day. There’s an excitement that you see with the players and the staff, but we know it’s a long year — it’s 162 games. It’s not a football season or whatever where you give a rah-rah speech and go out and get ‘em. It’s a long year, it’s a marathon. Our guys are prepared now and I think these guys are really excited and there’s a positive vibe and a lot of confidence here.”

The bullpen is oftentimes where things go awry, despite the best efforts of front offices around the game to stockpile arms and build in contingency plans.

When it comes to the ‘pen that GM Ross Atkins has put together heading into 2022, there’s no arguing it’s a step forward from where they were heading into last season.

Overall, last year’s bullpen finished with a 4.08 ERA, 16th in baseball, but a handful of early-season blowups cost them games and forced Atkins to trade for both Trevor Richards and Adam Cimber in June.

With those pieces still on hand, this group has a touch more certainty as Grapefruit League games begin, but it’s the one area where an injury or two could really hurt.

After taking a look at the rotation and the lineup this week, we finish off the State of the Position Spring Training series with all things bullpen.

PROJECTED BULLPEN

Closer: RHP Jordan Romano
High-leverage: LHP Tim Mayza
High-leverage: RHP Yimi Garcia
Middle innings: RHP Adam Cimber
Middle innings: RHP Trevor Richards
Middle innings: TBD
Bulk: RHP Ross Stripling
Bulk: TBD

COMPETING FOR ROSTER SPOTS

RHP Julian Merryweather
RHP David Phelps (NRI)
LHP Ryan Borucki (out of options)
LHP Andrew Vasquez
RHP Nate Pearson
RHP Anthony Castro
RHP Trent Thornton
RHP Thomas Hatch
LHP Tayler Saucedo
LHP Anthony Kay
RHP Graham Spraker (NRI)
RHP Joey Murray (NRI)
RHP Shaun Anderson (NRI)
RHP Jeremy Beasley (NRI)
RHP José De León (NRI)
RHP Casey Lawrence (NRI)
RHP Matt Gage (NRI)
RHP Joe Biagini (NRI)
RHP Adrian Hernandez (NRI)
RHP Kyle Johnston (NRI)
RHP Fitz Stadler (NRI)

JOB BATTLE TO WATCH
—Merryweather vs. Borucki vs. Phelps—

If the Jays were limited to the eight-man bullpen that would come along with the 13 pitcher cap, manager Charlie Montoyo said this week that he thought there were two bullpen spots available.

That’s reflected in the depth chart above, with Ross Stripling shifting to a swingman role with the addition of Yusei Kikuchi.

But with rosters expected to expand, there’s likely going to be three spots available with a 14 pitcher maximum.

Usually the goal when building an opening day bullpen is to conserve as much depth as possible with optionable players and creatively find a way to keep everyone in-house.

Merryweather, Borucki and Phelps are all in their own unique situations.

Merryweather is as talented as they come, but he simply can’t stay healthy, which is the reason he yet again has one option remaining and can be sent to Triple-A.

If he’s healthy this spring and looks good, they need to use him and he should be on the roster despite the option.

Borucki, however, does not have an option, making this an extremely important spring for his future in a Jays uniform. As a hard-throwing lefty, it’s very likely he’d be claimed if exposed to waivers.

Meanwhile, Phelps ran up an 0.87 ERA across 11 appearances with the Jays last year before lat surgery ended his season.

The 35-year-old right-hander is in camp on a minor-league deal, meaning they need to clear a 40-man roster spot to add him.

With a healthy Phelps seen as a near-lock to make the club, one of these three is likely to be left out of the final roster picture in April.

BIGGEST STRENGTH
—Romano is elite—

Pitching with a wonky knee in the second half of the season that needed meniscus surgery over the winter, Romano finished with a sparkling 2.14 ERA and 23 saves, eventually settling into a traditional closer’s role over the final two months.

His two-pitch fastball-slider mix is elite, with both offerings generating expected batting averages well below the Mendoza line.

The Markham, Ont., product also upped his fastball velocity from 96.5 mph in 2020 to 97.6 last year and struck out 85 batters across 63 frames.

If he stays healthy, Romano could enter the upper echelon of closers in his second full MLB season.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS
—Power arms needed—

If you’re looking for a spot where the Jays front office will be aggressive in July, this is it.

On paper, this bullpen is good, but pairing Romano with, say, a dominant Josh Hader-type is likely what this front office envisions as they push their chips into the centre of the table for 2022 later this summer.

When quizzing Atkins about what skills he’d like to add to his bullpen back in November at the GM meetings, the answer was more swing-and-miss.

Since that statement, they did add Yimi Garcia and under-the-radar lefty Andrew Vasquez, but expect this group to be added to in a significant way at some point. 

BREAKOUT CANDIDATE
—RHP Julian Merryweather—

I will not quit Merryweather, nor should you.

Everyone saw flashes last April at Yankee Stadium of what the now-30-year-old power righty who sat at No. 13 on my 2021 Blue Jays top 50 prospects list is capable of, but unfortunately another lengthy injury setback followed.

While Merryweather was able to return in September from his oblique injury, the stuff wasn’t as sharp, showing just how fine the line is between dominant high-leverage reliever and just another bullpen arm.

At this point, anything the Jays get from Merryweather is gravy, but his arm and four-pitch mix are so good that the upside is sky high still.

BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE
—RHP David Phelps—

Consider Phelps’ ERA over the last six seasons since becoming a full-time reliever:

2021: 0.87
2020: 6.53
2019: 3.41
2018: Missed season with TJ surgery
2017: 3.40
2016: 2.28

Essentially, when healthy, and throwing out an ugly small-sample size in the shortened 2020 season, Phelps has been an effective reliever who could help any bullpen.

The Jays are hoping that’s the case again this year, and he’s looked good in bullpen sessions already.

PROSPECTS TO WATCH THIS SPRING
—RHP Hagen Danner and RHP Adrian Hernandez—

If you’re looking for two names that could impact the Jays ‘pen in the second half of the season, Danner and Hernandez checked in at No. 24 and No. 21, respectively, on my 2022 top 50 prospects list for a reason.

Danner is the power arm, impressing Montoyo during Thursday’s live at-bats in Dunedin with a 97-mph fastball and a biting slider.

He’s made tremendous strides over the past year and a half after converting from catching, and the Jays added him to the 40-man last November.

Danner hasn’t pitched above High-A, but the stuff might be close to big-league ready.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Hernandez’s out-pitch is a devastating changeup that he pairs with low-90s velocity.

Just how good is the cambio? Well, the 5-foot-10, 170-pound righty breezed through three levels all the way to Double-A last summer, striking out a whopping 108 batters across 62.1 innings while allowing just 30 hits.

Hernandez will be exposed to the Rule 5 draft next winter — he would’ve been eligible this year and might’ve been selected had it not been cancelled — if he’s not on the big-league roster by December, so the Jays may want to get a look later this year when a need arises.