TSN's top 50 MLB free agents

As teams around the MLB get set to break out the chequebook this winter, TSN Blue Jays Reporter Scott Mitchell and TSN Baseball Insider Steve Phillips rank the top 50 free agents, predict where they could land and examine what sort of payday they might be looking at. Here are the top 50 free agents from one of the most anticipated classes in baseball history:

---

 

1. Manny Machado (San Diego Padres)

Position: 3B, SS    Age: 26    2018 Salary: $16M

2018 Stats: .297 BA, 37 HR, 107 RBI, .905 OPS, 6.2 WAR

 

2. Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies)

Position: OF    Age: 26    2018 Salary: $21.6M

2018 Stats: .249 BA, 34 HR, 100 RBI, .889 OPS, 3.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: The second franchise-type talent to be set free, Harper has now alternated between hitting under .250 in odd-numbered years and over .300 when the year ends in an even number. Harper has already piled up 30.7 WAR in his career and there may be another level yet. He’s a better fit in right field, but some teams could look at him in centre if that’s the need.

Signs with: Philadelphia Phillies

Contract: 13 years, $330 million

 

3. Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals)

Position: SP    Age: 29    2018 Salary: $7.5M

2018 Stats: 200 IP, 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.3 WAR

Mitchell's take: Good time for a career year. The lefty posted a career best in just about every stat and metric, including a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP and 6.3 WAR (as per FanGraphs). He struck out more than 11 per nine innings, doesn’t walk many, and also gets ground balls. The Yankees have been salivating over the 29-year-old for a while now.

Signs with: Washington Nationals

Contract: Six years, $140 million

 

4. Nathan Eovaldi (Boston Red Sox)

Position: SP    Age: 28    2018 Salary: $2M

2018 Stats: 111 IP, 6-7, 3.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 WAR

Mitchell's take: Fresh off a mesmerizing postseason performance, like Corbin, Eovaldi hits the market at a perfect time. For his wallet, at least, not owners who will have to pony up to add this power pitcher to their rotation. Arm injuries have been a concern in the past — he missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery — but he sure looked to be over that hump during his time in Boston.

Signs with: Boston Red Sox

Contract: Four years, $67.5 million 

 

5. Craig Kimbrel

Position: RP    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $13M

2018 Stats: 62.1 IP, 42 SV, 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 1.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: Last winter, the Dodgers gave closer Kenley Jansen $80 million over five years, setting a new bar for firemen. With 333 saves and a career 1.91 ERA on his resume, the 30-year-old is going to want that type of money, but will he get it? He struggled in the second half with a 4.57 ERA and that continued into the postseason, but he still finished with a 2.74 ERA and 42 saves.

Phillips' fit: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are built to win for several more years. Kimbrel is the best available closer and the Red Sox aren’t shy about spending money. They will keep their guy by making him the highest paid closer. 

Predicted price: Four years, $72 million.

 

6. Dallas Keuchel

Position: SP    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $13.2M

2018 Stats: 204.2 IP, 11-12, 3.74 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, WAR: 3.6

Mitchell's take: The 2015 American League Cy Young winner has yet to equal that type of dominance over the past three seasons, but he still gets boatloads of groundballs (53.7 per cent in 2018 and 58.8 per cent over his career) and he’ll get boatloads of money. Keuchel made 34 starts this season, registering a 3.74 ERA that helped him accumulate 3.6 WAR.

Phillips' fit: Washington Nationals

He will replace Gio Gonzalez in the Washington rotation. He slots in between the two big right-handers, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The Nats want to maximize their investment in Scherzer and rotational balance will help. He is a different look that will work nicely in the NL.

Predicted price: Four years, $80 million

 

7. Josh Donaldson (Atlanta Braves)

Position: 3B    Age: 32    2018 Salary: $23M

2018 Stats: .246 BA, 8 HR, 23 RBI, .801 OPS, 1.3 WAR

Mitchell's take: The Bringer of Rain is the most interesting free-agent case of the winter. The former MVP struggled with injuries all season, but unlike 2017, even when he was on the field he didn’t produce. Add it all up and Donaldson heads into free agency after playing just 52 games and putting up a .801 OPS with eight homers. If he’s confident his body won’t fail him again, the soon-to-be 33-year-old could seek a one-year deal and try to hit the market again next year.

Signs with: Atlanta Braves 

Contract: One year, $23 million

 

8. Michael Brantley (Houston Astros)

Position: OF    Age: 31    2018 Salary: $11.5M

2018 Stats: .309 BA, 17 HR, 76 RBI, .832 OPS, 3.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: Playing more than 100 games for the first time since 2015, Brantley finally returned to health to slash .309/.364/.468 with 17 home runs this season. He doesn’t provide any defensive value and is strictly a left fielder, but a 124 wRC+ shows he can rake and he’s a good baserunner, too.

Signs with: Houston Astros

Contract: Two years, $32 million

 

9. A.J. Pollock (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Position: OF    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $7.75M

2018 Stats: .257 BA, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 800 OPS, 2.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: If Pollock hadn’t missed significant chunks of time over the last three seasons, he’d be higher on this list. But in six big league seasons, Pollock has managed to accumulate more than 500 plate appearances just once. In his age-30 season this past summer, Pollock slashed a disappointing .257/.316/.484, but he did hit 21 homers and steal 13 bases in 113 games. He’s a versatile and productive player who can defend well in centre.

Signs with: Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract: Four years

 

10. Charlie Morton (Tampa Bay Rays)

Position: SP    Age: 34    2018 Salary: $7M

2018 Stats: 167 IP, 15-3, 3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.1 WAR

Mitchell's take: A spin-rate darling that the Astros helped push to by far the two best seasons of his career over the past two years, the 35-year-old was an All-Star for the first time this season, posting a 3.13 ERA and 3.1 WAR. Despite a career marked by injuries — two hip surgeries, elbow surgery and shoulder and hamstring issues — Morton is one of the more attractive mid-rotation options for contenders.

Signs with: Tampa Bay Rays

Contract: Two years, $30 million

 

11. Andrew McCutchen (Philadelphia Phillies)

Position: OF    Age: 32    2018 Salary: $14.75M

2018 Stats: .255 BA, 20 HR, 65 RBI, .774 OPS, 2.6 WAR

Mitchell's take: While he may not be the superstar he was during his prime when he put up seasons of 5.5, 7.4, 8.1, 7.4, and 6.0 WAR from 2011-15, Cutch is still as consistent as they come. He’s had more than 600 plate appearances in each of his nine MLB seasons and carries a carry .378 on-base percentage, including a .368 mark during his time with the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees this season. You know what you’re getting here.

Signs with: Philadelphia Phillies

Contract: Three years, $50 million

 

12. Zach Britton (New York Yankees)

Position: RP    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $12M

2018 Stats: 40.2 IP, 2-0, 3.10 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 0.1 WAR

Mitchell's take: Robbed of half of his 2018 season after tearing his Achilles last December, the lefty with the power sinker wasn’t as dominant upon returning in June, but still managed to post a 2.88 ERA with the Yankees down the stretch. Another year removed from the injury, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Britton get back to being one of the best closers in the game in 2019, and he’ll likely be asking to be paid that way, too.

Signs with: New York Yankees

Contract: Three years, $39 million

 

13. Yasmani Grandal (Milwaukee Brewers)

Position: C    Age: 29    2018 Salary: $7.9M

2018 Stats: .241 BA, 24 HR, 68 RBI, .815 OPS, 3.6 WAR

Mitchell's take: Another example of players ratcheting things up during a contract year, Grandal posted 3.6 WAR in 2018, the second-best total for a catcher in baseball behind J.T. Realmuto. Despite struggling mightily in the postseason the past two years, Grandal has power (22-plus homers in each of the past three seasons), can defend, and he’s lauded for his pitch framing. 

Signs with: Milwaukee Brewers

Contract: One year, $18.25 million

 

14. Daniel Murphy (Colorado Rockies)

Position: 2B    Age: 33    2018 Salary: $17.5

2018 Stats: .299 BA, 12 HR, 42 RBI, .790 OPS, 0.8 WAR

Mitchell's take: Off-season knee surgery contributed to a slow start for the veteran this year, but he was still able to slash .299/.336/.454 with 12 homers in 91 games. If his health checks out, there will be teams that look at his 2016 and 2017 seasons — .985 and .928 OPS, respectively — and wonder if he can back to that with a healthy off-season and more time to recover from microfracture surgery, one of the tougher knee procedures for an athlete.

Signs with: Colorado Rockies

Contract: Two years, $24 million

 

15. Jed Lowrie (New York Mets)

Position: 2B, 3B, SS    Age: 34    2018 Salary: $6M

2018 Stats: .267 BA, 23 HR, 99 RBI, .801 OPS, 4.9 WAR

Mitchell's take: Lost in the shuffle out on the West Coast, Lowrie authored a career year in 2018, hitting 23 home runs on his way to a 4.9 WAR season. Combine that with a solid campaign in 2017 and Lowrie has now been worth 8.5 WAR over the past two seasons. A well-rounded switch-hitter with power who plays an adequate second base, Lowrie will be an interesting case in a deep second base market.

Signs with: New York Mets

Contract: Two years, $20 million

 

16. J.A. Happ (New York Yankees)

Position: SP    Age: 36    2018 Salary: $13M

2018 Stats: 177.2 IP, 17-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.2 WAR

Mitchell's take: Seen as a ho-hum addition in the New York market at the trade deadline, Happ dazzled in pinstripes, going 7-0 with a 2.69 in 11 starts down the stretch. Like a fine wine, the 36-year-old lefty seems to be getting better with age and is striking out more hitters than ever now that he’s confident pitching up in the zone.

Signs with: New York Yankees

Contract: Two years, $34 million

 

17. Mike Moustakas (Milwaukee Brewers)

Position: 3B    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $6.5M

2018 Stats: .251 BA, 28 HR, 95 RBI, .774 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Mitchell's take: Coming off a 38-homer season in 2017, the market simply wasn’t there for Moose last winter and he ended up re-signing in Kansas City for one year in order to try it again this year. While he couldn’t equal the power, Moustakas managed to hit 28 homers and put up 2.4 WAR, which should have teams interested in a third base market that has Josh Donaldson, potentially Adrian Beltre, and not much else. 

Signs with: Milwaukee Brewers

Contract: One year, $10 million

 

18. Nelson Cruz (Minnesota Twins)

Position: DH    Age: 38    2018 Salary: $14.25M

2018 Stats: .256 BA, 37 HR, 97 RBI, .850, 2.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: Some players start to crater once they enter their mid-30s, making it all the more amazing to watch a player like Cruz continue to bash. Now 38 years old, the last deal Cruz signed — four years, $58 million — turned out to be a bargain, and he’s coming off a 37-homer season. Sure, he’s DH-only, but another 134 wRC+ will play anywhere. 

Signs with: Minnesota Twins

Contract: One year, $14 million, $12 million club option for 2020

 

19. Gio Gonzalez (New York Yankees)

Position: SP    Age: 33    2018 Salary: $12M

2018 Stats: 171 IP, 10-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 2.0 WAR

Mitchell's take: Gonzalez likely wishes he hit free agency a year ago, as the lefty wasn’t able to duplicate his 2.96 ERA from 2017. The strikeouts were down and the walks were up, leading to a 4.21 ERA, but the 33-year-old did go 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts once he was traded to the Brewers.

Signs with: New York Yankees

Contract: One-year, minor league deal

 

20. Marwin Gonzalez (Minnesota Twins)

Position: UTL    Age: 29    2018 Salary: $5.125M

2018 Stats: .247 BA, 16 HR, 68 RBI, .733 OPS, 1.6 WAR

Mitchell's take: This switch-hitter wasn’t able to replicate his 4.0 WAR 2017 season, falling to just 1.6 WAR after slashing just .247/.324/.409 and watching his wRC+ go from 144 to 104. Still, what Gonzalez offers is a ton of positional flexibility — he played every spot on the field other than pitcher or catcher in 2018 — and he’s only heading into his age-30 season.

Signs with: Minnesota Twins

Contract: Two years, $21 million

 

21. Yusei Kikuchi (Seattle Mariners)

Position: SP    Age: 27    2018 Salary: N/A

2018 Stats: 163.2 IP, 14-4, 3.80 ERA, 1.03 WHIP

Mitchell’s take: The Seibu Lions have reportedly agreed to post Kikuchi, placing an intriguing 27-year-old left-hander on the market. There are some shoulder concerns, but Kikuchi can run his fastball up into the mid-nineties from the left side and he’s gotten results, going 14-4 with a 3.08 ERA in 23 games for Seibu this season, striking out 153 in 163.2 innings.

Signs with: Seattle Mariners

Contract: Three years, $43 million. Options can make deal as many as seven seasons for $109 million.

 

22. Andrew Miller (St. Louis Cardinals)

Position: RP    Age: 35    2018 Salary: $9M

2018 Stats: 34 IP, 2-4, 4.24 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

Mitchell's take: After four seasons of straight up dominance, Miller hit the disabled list three times this season as he dealt with shoulder, knee, and hamstring troubles. The health issues led to a bloated 4.24 ERA in 34 innings for the big lefty. He’s still got closer stuff, but the injuries are a concern.

Signs with: St. Louis Cardinals

Contract: Two years, $25 million

 

23. Hyun-Jin Ryu (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Position: SP    Age: 31    2018 Salary: $7.83M

2018 Stats: 82.1 IP, 7-3, 1.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2.0 WAR

Mitchell's take: It’s a simple equation with this 31-year-old southpaw. When he’s healthy, he’s good. But he’s rarely healthy. Out of nowhere, Ryu emerged in 2018 to post a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts, but was still unable to get through a full season. A team could either strike it big or strike out with Ryu.

** Accepts one-year, $17.9 million qualifying offer from Dodgers.

 

24. Adam Ottavino (New York Yankees)

Position: RP    Age: 32    2018 Salary: $7M

2018 Stats: 77.2 IP, 6-4, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.0 WAR

Mitchell's take: Ottavino had Tommy John surgery in 2015, and he’s been all over the map since returning. He was awful in 2017 with a 5.06 ERA and just as ugly peripherals, but he turned it around this past season, registering a 2.43 ERA that was, for the most part, supported by a 2.74 FIP. His ability to get both lefties and righties out is attractive at the back end of a bullpen.

Signs with: New York Yankees

Contract: Three years, $27 million

 

25. David Robertson (Philadelphia Phillies)

Position: RP    Age: 33    2018 Salary: $13M

2018 Stats: 69.2 IP, 8-3, 3.23 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.5 WAR

Mitchell's take: After three-plus years of closing out games, Robertson settled into a setup role in his second stint with the Yankees. While he likely wants to close once again — Who wouldn’t? The money’s better — contenders looking to build a super bullpen will likely eye him for a setup role.

Signs with: Philadelphia Phillies

Contract: Two years, $23 million

 

26. Brian Dozier (Washington Nationals)

Position: 2B    Age: 31    2018 Salary: $9M

2018 Stats: .215 BA, 21 HR, 72 RBI, .696 OPS, 0.8 WAR

Mitchell's take: Talk about a bad time to crater. After seasons of 6.2 and 5.0 WAR in 2016 and 2017, respectively, Dozier was worth just 0.8 WAR this season, and he’s dropped from 42 to 34 to 21 homers over the past three campaigns. Dozier is in the same boat as Josh Donaldson. Do you take the best multi-year deal this winter or bet on yourself?

Signs with: Washington Nationals

Contract: One year, $9 million

 

27. Wilson Ramos (New York Mets)

Position: C    Age: 31    2018 Salary: $8.5M

2018 Stats: .306 BA, 15 HR, 70 RBI, .845 OPS, 2.4 WAR

Mitchell's take: While we’ve got them 13 spots apart, there are likely teams that will prefer Ramos to Yasmani Grandal based on price tag. There’s less consistency with Ramos and he’s dealt with injuries, but he slashed .306/.358/.487 with 15 homers and a 131 wRC+ this season. There could be a career year in store for the 31-year-old over the next couple of seasons if he stays healthy.

Signs with: New York Mets

Contract: Two years, $19 million

 

28. Adrian Beltre (Retired)

Position: 3B    Age: 39    2018 Salary: $18M

2018 Stats: .273 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, .763 OPS, 1.2 WAR

Mitchell's take: Currently contemplating retirement, the ageless Beltre will still have suitors if he decides to continue his Hall-of-Fame career in 2019. He’s struggled with injuries the past two years and Father Time is clearly catching up, but he’s still an excellent defender and it wouldn’t be wise to bet against Beltre in his age-40 season, especially if a team can find him DH at-bats to help keep him fresh.

 

29. DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees)

Position: 2B    Age: 30    2018 Salary: $8.5M

2018 Stats: .276 BA, 15 HR, 62 RBI, .749 OPS, 2.0 WAR

Mitchell's take: A Gold Glove-calibre defender at the keystone, LeMahieu has been helped along offensively by Coors Field over the years. Over the past two years, he’s posted wRC+ marks under the league average threshold of 100, accumulating 3.9 WAR. There’s no shortage of veteran second base options available this winter.

Signs with: New York Yankees

Contract: Two years, $24 million

 

30. Kelvin Herrera (Chicago White Sox)

Position: RP    Age: 28    2018 Salary: $7.93M

2018 Stats: 44.1 IP, 2-3, 2.44 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 0.4 WAR

Mitchell's take: A torn ligament in his left foot ended Herrera’s season in September, and the right-hander finished the year with a 2.44 ERA and 17 saves. Heading into his age-29 season, Herrera has been a bit of an enigma, but he’s managed to post an ERA of 2.75 or less in five of seven big league seasons. He could be a steal if he can duplicate is 2.0 WAR season from 2016 when he threw 72 innings.

Signs with: Chicago White Sox

Contract: Two years, $18 million

 

 

 

** FanGraphs WAR used throughout list.