Breaking down the Western Conference playoff matchups

Travis Yost

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With 1,271 regular-season games in the books, it’s time for the real fun to begin.

Saturday’s slate of games wrapped up the 2018-19 regular season, so we now turn our attention to the Stanley Cup Playoffs. As is tradition, we will preview each of the eight first-round series by conference, paying specific attention to the statistical strengths and weaknesses of the respective participants.

I’ve broken out performance across key performance indicators over the last 25 games of the regular season for every series. Then, I calculate the advantage/disadvantage from the home team’s perspective – the higher the relative percentage, the bigger the gap between the two teams. I’ll include the usual key performance indicators, the lineups coaches have been utilizing since the trade deadline concluded (blue: increasing role; red: decreasing role), and my qualitative thoughts on the series.

Our Eastern Conference preview can be found here.

Let’s look at the Western Conference now, starting with Winnipeg vs. St. Louis.

A 4-2 victory over the Arizona Coyotes on Saturday night secured home ice in the first round for the Winnipeg Jets. Considering how intimidating the MTS Centre can be, that fourth home game could prove critical to their chances of advancing.

But no other playoff team is playing worse than the Jets are right now. Winnipeg’s fall from grace has been utterly perplexing – the team is loaded with skill throughout the lineup and has been providing high-quality results for years now. Injuries to the blueline certainly haven’t helped. Dustin Byfuglien has returned, but Josh Morrissey’s loss has been felt.

The issue with Winnipeg is that it’s hard to believe – and I of course run the risk of miscalculating here – that the loss of two defenders for some time can unilaterally sink the performance of a team. We have seen teams around the league lose better blueliners for similarly significant stretches of time, but the results haven’t cratered like they have in Winnipeg.

Only two skaters – depth forwards Jack Roslovic and Mathieu Perreault – have been able to outshoot the opposition while on the ice since the trade deadline. Everyone else on the Winnipeg roster is a negative, and some of the star players are the biggest offenders. Guys like Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, and Bryan Little are barely getting 45 per cent of the shots and scoring chances while on the ice over this stretch. (Goals have similarly followed.) It’s not the depth players that are getting beaten up; it’s their core talents.

I did posit a theory in last week’s article about where I thought Winnipeg has gone awry – their breakouts, forward support and neutral zone transitions have completely collapsed. That’s meant much more time off the puck and defending attacking sequences. But it’s also neutralized the firepower of Winnipeg’s attack. Absent Winnipeg’s electric power play, there just hasn’t been anything to like lately.

Did I mention that Winnipeg’s first-round opponent is terrifying? In a span of three months, the Blues went from dead last to one point removed from winning the Central Division title. I don’t think we should be quick to discount St. Louis’ ugly start to the season, but it’s clear that this team gelled down the stretch. Their placement in the standings at season’s end was virtually identical to that of the Jets. But while the Jets are seemingly collapsing, the Blues are surging.

The Blues are largely doing it by committee. They have nine scorers in double digits since the trade deadline, topped by Brayden Schenn and Vladimir Tarasenko. But no forward may be more important for St. Louis in this series than Ryan O’Reilly.

O’Reilly has been outstanding this year – the Blues were +154 in shots, +106 in scoring chances, and +24 in goals with him on the ice at 5-on-5 this season. The on-ice goal differentials for O’Reilly were the best for any Western Conference forward, and you can rest assured that his two-way play and attention to detail on the defensive side of the game are going to earn him some Selke consideration. Moreover, you can count on him seeing an awful lot of the Scheifele line in this series.

I have the utmost respect for the personnel within Winnipeg’s lineup and still think there’s a chance they can figure things out, especially if the return of Morrissey is imminent. But a Blues team that’s comparably talented and playing some of the best hockey we’ve seen from a team since the calendar year turned is a hard one to pick against.

Pick: St. Louis in seven

Nashville vs. Dallas

There is a lot to love about this Nashville team, but with the way the offence has dried up for this club, it’s fair to put them on upset alert – especially against a game Dallas team that has been tremendous over the second half of the year.

The Predators are the 25^th-ranked offence in the NHL since the trade deadline. A lot of that is tied up in the power play, where Nashville is averaging a league-worst 4.5 goals per 60 minutes of hockey. Nashville’s never carried a high-end power-play unit but it’s hard to see what’s going wrong with this group.

It doesn’t appear to be a personnel issue either – Nashville has played with introducing new acquisitions like Wayne Simmonds and Brian Boyle into some of those minutes (they have just one goal between them), but they are still leaning heavily on Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson up top, with Roman Josi and P.K. Subban getting the blueline minutes.

I mention the lacklustre power play because it could be a big story in this series. Dallas is already notoriously stingy at 5-on-5 – they have been top-three in rate goals against all season long, and only the New York Islanders gave up fewer goals in all situations. A lot of that has to do with how sensational Stars goaltender Ben Bishop has been this season. It’s likely that Bishop will be a Vezina Trophy finalist (at a minimum), and even on a team with its own share of star talent, Bishop has been Dallas’ most valuable player.

But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the Stars. The slower pace of game and stalwart goaltending from Bishop has turned Dallas into one of the better defensive teams in the league, but their offence has dried up. Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov and Jamie Benn accounted for 42 per cent of Dallas’ entire offence. To call them top-heavy in the scoring department would be an insult to top-heavy teams.

What is fascinating is that head coach Jim Montgomery does play them together from time to time. In fact, over the last 10 games in Dallas, the Radulov-Seguin-Benn line was the third most common trio. It certainly gives Dallas an elite scoring line that would give every team in the league fits, but it also hurts them further down the lineup where scoring competency is harder to come across. Montgomery has gone back and forth between loading up the first line and spreading one of his marquee wingers onto the second line, and I expect that may continue into the playoffs.

The Predators have a deeper, more skilled team, and ultimately that type of team tends to carry the run of play in a playoff series. Their puck possession style of play may lend itself well to slowing down Dallas’ top line. If they can accomplish that, they’ll just need to figure out a way to solve Bishop. That’s easier said than done, but Nashville is too deep to not like here.

Pick: Nashville in six

San Jose vs. Vegas

The big first-round series in the Eastern Conference is Toronto and Boston. The big series in the Western Conference? It’s right here.

The Sharks and Knights more or less coasted to their postseason berths, though San Jose did jockey with Calgary for a shot at the divisional title until very late in the season. Keep in mind that San Jose did this with their best skater, Erik Karlsson, missing 29 games – most of which came during the second half of the regular season.

I want to focus on Karlsson for a bit here because I’m not sure there is a bigger story heading into Round 1. San Jose was one of the earmarked Stanley Cup contenders last summer, and they have mostly lived up to the billing. San Jose was utterly tremendous in the games where Karlsson was available, getting 59 per cent of the shots, 57 per cent of the scoring chances, and 54 per cent of the goals. The Sharks were blitzing teams with him on the ice. (Results were quite good with him off, too.)

But his injury has been a bad one. He only recently returned to skating and, listening to him talk to the media last week, it sure sounds like there is going to be a bit of a feeling out period for Karlsson as he gets comfortable with his current health. That’s a big story in any series, but even more important against a team as deadly as the Golden Knights. If Karlsson isn’t 100 per cent, San Jose looks quite a bit different in a series like this.

There isn’t a lot to say about Vegas that hasn’t already been discussed. They were a deep team – one of the league’s best at 5-on-5 by any statistical measure – and went and added one of the three best two-way forwards in the sport at the trade deadline. Mark Stone has been so good, and has gelled with linemates Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty so quickly that they’ve evolved into Vegas’ top line. Do you realize how good a line would have to be to take minutes away from the vaunted William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith unit?

Both of these teams are well-rounded as anyone not named Tampa Bay, but both may have one fatal flaw. San Jose’s is the more obvious one. Martin Jones and Aaron Dell have been as bad a goaltending tandem as you will find this year – Jones’ save percentage (89.6 in all situations) was 47th best in the NHL amongst qualified goalies, sandwiched between the likes of Cam Ward and Cam Talbot. With an average goaltending group, San Jose would have challenged Tampa Bay for the best record in hockey. It’s been so bad back there that the Sharks left 37 goals – worth about six wins in the standings – on the table from goaltending alone.

With Marc-Andre Fleury manning the crease, Vegas have a considerable goaltending advantage. They’re also one of the two or three teams in the league that can skate with the Sharks at 5-on-5. But the Knights have a problem on special teams, especially of late.

Since the trade deadline, the Knights are 26th in rate scoring on the power play and 29th in rate scoring against on the penalty kill. While the penalty kill performance may be a bit of a statistical outlier (they generally have been strong in that department over the last two seasons), it was a major undoing for them during last year’s playoffs. The power play has bounced between middling and abysmal for two years.

These are two of the better teams in the league. Both can win a Stanley Cup. But one team has a reliable goaltender behind an awesome skating group and the other team does not.

Pick: Vegas in seven

Calgary vs. Colorado

Calgary did their job and got out of that dreaded two-versus-three matchup in the Pacific Division. Now they just need to take care of business against an inferior opponent.

The Avalanche had a bizarre regular season. On some nights, they looked every bit the part of the team that ran through most of the Western Conference in 2017-18. Then there were random stretches – like the two months from the middle of December to the middle of February – where they won a total of four hockey games. They are the best team in the league at drawing power- play opportunities. They are the worst team in the league at avoiding the penalty box. They have two really good goaltenders, but it’s never really been clear which one is the starter. It’s been a fun season in Denver.

Perhaps the big story in Colorado though is how we should weigh the possibility of a Colorado upset without one of their best skaters. There are reports Mikko Rantanen may be able to return for the series, but it is fair to say his status is in doubt – certainly so for Game 1. Figuring out how to replace 87 points in your lineup is hard for most teams, but perhaps more so for a Colorado team that is still trying to build out the bottom half of their lineup.

Down Rantanen, Colorado’s top six suddenly looks underwhelming relative to Calgary’s top two lines. The Flames’ top six is an interesting mix. On one line you have the creative trio of Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm wheeling around the offensive zone. On the line right behind them you have Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund and Michael Frolik – a three-headed monster that is as good as any line at the league at flipping the ice and applying offensive pressure through quick zonal transitions.

The lines offer two completely different styles, but both are rather effective. This core group of six forwards has been instrumental in Calgary’s surge to the top of the standings. Put all of that in front of a blueline anchored by Mark Giordano and you have something special.

The one thing that keeps me from picking Calgary in a short series is the unknown goaltending variable. For whatever reason – I assume it’s financially motivated but it could be just stubbornness at this point – the Flames have been feeding goaltender Mike Smith starts. This despite the fact Smith’s numbers have been cratering for years, with his 89.8 save percentage this year being a career low.

It’s not like the Flames are void of decent alternatives. David Rittich may not have the pedigree, but he absolutely has the performance numbers. Smith just isn’t a viable option right now, but the amount of debate has me concerned that Calgary might give Smith the net in the series opener.

I’m picking Calgary either way – there’s just too much firepower within this offence and Colorado having an injury to one of their handful of skaters who moves the needle seems like a death sentence. I reserve the right to remind you that this series could go needlessly longer with the wrong option between the pipes.

Pick: Calgary in six

Data via Natural Stat Trick