Columnist image

TSN Soccer Analyst

| Archive

Thierry Henry was almost speechless. Reflecting on more lost points for Arsenal and the competitive nature of this year’s Premier League, during Sunday’s broadcast on Sky Sports of Norwich against Arsenal, he turned to the host and asked the question.

“Who wants to win it?”

The Premier League enters its fifth month of the season this week and never has it looked more like the NFL than it does today. Last week a graphic on social media went viral with scores placed inside the team logos saying ‘anyone can beat anyone’.

In a league without a salary cap that has cared little for competitive balance in the past it has been one of the most surprising storylines of this season’s Premier League so far.

At the start of the season it appeared it was a four horse race with no true thoroughbred but the apparent big four continue to struggle as the gap closes on the rest while one of the horses has reverted back to a little pony again. The hyperbole often used to sell the league as the world’s best has seen a change in its message from commentators with multiple ones recently referring to it as ‘competitively brilliant’. That’s one way to get the word brilliant in, I suppose.

Last season’s ‘big four’ of Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Man Utd combined to finish with 311 points, 20 fewer than the top four the year before, and a four year low from the top four finishers.

Yet, they still combined for a 67% win success ratio in matches against the other 16 clubs. In the 128 games they played against teams finishing 5th-20th they won 86, effectively two of every three games.

This season they aren’t close to such a figure. This past weekend alone saw the big four secure a 25% win ratio against the others as Chelsea drew with Spurs, Arsenal with Norwich and Man Utd with Leicester. Man City’s home win against Southampton was the only victory.

In the last five weeks they have won just 7 of 18 of such matchups and for the season have a win ratio of just 54% (26 of 48). Chelsea’s struggles have played a part in such a low number and their pursuit of a top four spot to maintain their ‘big four’ status looks in question. If we replace the bookmakers favourites to dispossess them, Tottenham, the results still show regression with the new big four winning just 28 of 48 matches this season (58%).

It is little wonder that expert soccer stats man Michael Caley currently projects the top four to combine for just 294 points by the season’s end, a full five wins below last season (15pts) and 12 wins+ (37pts) from 2013/14.

twitter embed

While talent and true consistency at the top of the league is down the same cannot be said elsewhere in the league. You don’t have to look too hard elsewhere in the Premier League to enjoy real quality on show for non-traditional super powers. There are many examples across the league of teams and players not belonging to last season’s big four consistently performing at a high level.

Finance plays a large part in this – after all in 2013-14 fourteen Premier League clubs were named in the world’s top 30 wealthiest clubs – and that has give teams opportunities to get better players within their squads.

In theory, the money should also help keep them – as it did with John Stones this past summer at Everton – but the lure of the Champions League and the wage bills offered by those teams domestically will always be there for players and the improvement in quality now gives the big four an opportunity to scout players at clubs they previously ignored.

It was a path few recruiters travelled because of the heavy costs associated and the genuine lack of true elite starters that could make a difference.

A look at players currently playing at big four clubs who previously played elsewhere in the Premier League shows how little regard teams had for such players.

Chelsea currently have just Asmir Begovic, Gary Cahill and Loic Remy with only Cahill considered a first team regular when everyone is healthy.

Man City can also only call on one regular, Raheem Sterling, while also having depth players Fabian Delph and Wilfried Bony and former Fulham youth product Patrick Roberts.

Arsenal don’t have any first team regulars who once played elsewhere with a Premier League side as Mathieu Debuchy, Calum Chambers and Mikel Arteta spend much more time on their bench.

Manchester United are the only real exception signing Wayne Rooney, Ashley Young, Antonio Valencia, Morgan Schneiderlin, Marouane Fellaini, Luke Shaw, Phil Jones, Michael Carrick and Chris Smalling after seeing them elsewhere in Premier League action. All are very different cases when judging the success but it is telling that of the nine holdovers from the Sir Alex Ferguson era currently in their squad seven come from this list while the others are Juan Mata (previous experience but with a top four side) and David De Gea.

United have done well scouting talent within their league at lower teams and believing they can improve and play at a Champions League level. This used to be a significant jump but the group of players shining for non-Champions League teams who could play that level is growing.

Teams other than United haven’t done as well and with higher prices placed on such players it puts pressure on recruitment teams to get it right. Previously it was understandably a risky pool to dip into but seeing teams below them in the Premier League class system showcasing many excellent players, while they themselves are not meeting high expectations, should tempt them to start bidding for players no longer needing to move countries to come.

Support Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United or Tottenham? Who in the Premier League right now not belonging to that list would you like to see your team buy? Let us know in the comments below or by using #TSNFC on Twitter.

In part two of a look at the gap closing in the Premier League, later this week Kristian Jack will publish his top 20 list of these players. Maybe one of your choices will be included.