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PGA Championship: Rahm and Scheffler alone at top of odds for good reason
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2023 has been the year of two men on the PGA Tour: Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.
There have been 18 events (72-hole stroke play) on the PGA Tour since the start of January.
Scheffler and Rahm have won six of those, with both winning the two biggest tournaments of the year to date when Scheffler won The Players, and Rahm won The Masters.
As we enter the year’s second major championship, the two are dead even at the top of the oddsboard at +750.
The next closest golfer, Rory McIlroy, comes in at +1300, and no other golfer has odds shorter than 20-1 to win the PGA Championship.
So before we get to longshots and players we like to win this week, I think it’s important we explain the two stallions at the top of the board and consider the fact that, despite it only being Monday, and not a shot will be hit for several days, this thing might just be a two-horse race.
*All Strokes Gained stats via RickRunGood.com*
Alone At The Top
Rahm has made 11 starts since the start of January, has seven finishes inside the top 10, four wins, and leads all players gaining 2.62 strokes per round.
Right behind Rahm is Scheffler.
Scheffler has made 10 starts worldwide since January. His worst finish is a tie for 12th.
During this stretch, he’s been better than Rahm tee to green, gaining 2.43 strokes per round in that category, trumping Rahm’s 1.72.
However, the putting for Scheffler has been an issue, and he sits second SG: Total coming in at 2.44.
The gap between Rahm and Scheffler looks minuscule when you compare it to the rest of the field.
No other player is averaging more than 2.00 strokes gained per round this year, with the closest being Patrick Cantlay at 1.92.
Here are the Top 10 Players in Strokes Gained Total since January 1, 2023 (LIV players not included)
Jon Rahm 2.62
Scottie Scheffler 2.43
Patrick Cantlay 1.92
Jason Day 1.91
Xander Schauffele 1.88
Tony Finau 1.78
Wyndham Clark 1.77
Nicolai Hojgaard 1.57 (Euro)
Tyrrell Hatton 1.55
Sungjae Im 1.49
The half-a-stroke difference between Scheffler in second and Cantlay in third equals the gap between Cantlay and Rickie Fowler, who comes in at No. 12 on this list.
Meanwhile, the 0.71 difference between Scheffler and Rahm SG: Tee to Green is equal to the gap between Rahm (third) and Hideki Matsuyama (20th).
So, Rahm is head and shoulders above everyone overall, and Scheffler is light years better tee to green than everyone.
This raises a question: What has to happen for one of these two to *not* win this week.
Let's Talk Putting
I have compiled the strokes gained numbers from the past nine PGA Championships.
Here are their Strokes Gained numbers putting, with their Tee to Green numbers in brackets.
2022: Justin Thomas 6.32 (7.99)
2021: Phil Mickelson 1.10 (12.90)
2020: Collin Morikawa 8.08 (7.04)
2019: Brooks Koepka 1.15 (17.35)
2018 Brooks Koepka 4.06 (11.75)
2017: Justin Thomas 7.23 (9.14)
2016: Jimmy Walker 5.21 (10.41)
2015: Jason Day 5.22 (16.21)
2014: Rory McIlroy 4.43 (12.12)
Seven of the last nine PGA Championship winners have gained at least 4.00 strokes with the putter.
Scheffler has done that once this year when he gained 4.16 in Phoenix and won (shocking) and did it twice last season, picking up wins both times.
Rahm, on the other hand, has surpassed the 4.00 SG: Putting mark four times since January and enters this week 7th in SG: Putting, while Scheffler lags all the way behind at 102nd.
IF NOT THEM, THEN WHO
Rick Gehman of CBS cobbled together a list of recent major winners and their betting odds.
The average odds for a Major Championship winner is 47-1 since 2019.
However, if you remove that Phil Mickelson win at 300-1, that number drops to 27-1, and seven of those winners have been 20-1 or shorter.
Let’s say Scheffler doesn’t have a good putting week, and Rahm, who has just one top 10 at the PGA in his last four trips, continues that trend and comes up short.
Here are two guys that have my full attention this week.
Patrick Cantlay 21-1
This season Cantlay ranks third on Tour Tee to Green and is 16th in putting.
The American has six finishes inside the top 20 at majors in his career, with three of those coming in his last three starts.
For a while, Cantlay was a top player who consistently was underperforming in big events, but it seems he’s washed his hands of that narrative and could be in store for a big major win soon.
He also leads this field in Par 5 scoring, something these players will need to take full advantage of as scoring opportunities could be hard to come by this week.
Brooks Koepka 21-1
Koepka has made just nine bogeys in nine rounds on LIV since the Masters, with five of those coming at Adelaide the week after Augusta.
Looking back to 2017, no one has been better at majors than him and the 2.32 strokes gained total per round.
His 0.87 SG: Driving per round at majors since 2017 is good enough for third in this field and is something that will come in handy this week at Oak Hill, a course that will put a lot of stress on players to be long and accurate off the tee.
Koepka had a dip in 2022, failing to crack the top 50 in all four majors.
But with his recent display at the Masters, and the man himself telling the media he finally feels like his old self again, getting a guy who’s won four majors and is playing good golf at 21-1 is something that works with me.