William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, and William Carrier helped the Golden Knights reach the Cup final in the team’s inaugural season in 2017-18. The Golden Knights exceeded the expectations of even the rosiest optimists but, ultimately, they couldn’t vanquish the Washington Capitals.

Unexpected as that Cup run was, disappointment doesn’t listen to reason. Anyone who’s had a first chance fail can relate to the dream of a second chance, to rectify what didn’t go quite right the first time. And in 2023, the Golden Knights are a win away from a return to the Cup final, with the big prize just five wins away.

Vegas’s effort in Game 4 seemed somewhere between milquetoast and uneven. The Golden Knights were flat for two periods and couldn’t protect a lead, losing in overtime 3-2. Game 5 is a chance for redemption and will be played in Vegas. I think the Golden Knights win and their team defence is a big reason why. My picks reflect that forecasting.

Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights

Saturday, May 27 – 8 PM ET

Allow me to pour cold water on the Dallas Stars’ Game 4 victory. Sure, ugly wins still count as victories, but their Thursday triumph was for three reasons: Jason Robertson, the Stars’ more aggressive forecheck, and Jake Oettinger. I am dubious they can replicate this formula.

Find a hose because Robertson is on fire. He has four goals in his last four games. He had a preposterous 11 shots on goal on Thursday night. And more offensive zone time by the Stars in Game 4 allowed him to roam in search of a quiet area. He could plant himself on the weak side and set up for a quick strike. He could sidle his body to the far post and wait for the puck to find him off a carom. The Golden Knights didn’t manage the puck well or keep tight gaps, and these deficiencies provided Robertson looks off the rush.

The only problem is that Robertson is one player, and the Stars are completely reliant on his line. Heck, the mantra of this postseason could be “depth matters” – a lot! When the Robertson line is not on the ice, the Stars are getting outscored 6-1 at 5-on-5. In expected goals, the Robertson line has a 54.23 expected goals percentage when the game is within one goal. The rest of the Stars are at 44.89 per cent. And with Jamie Benn suspended and Evgenii Dadonov injured, the Stars’ offensive depth is a vulnerability.

In fairness, the Stars’ bottom-six forwards did create chances in Game 4, finishing with a 10-3 advantage in high-danger chances. When the Stars got the puck below the goal line, Vegas had difficulty wrestling it back and initiating a breakout. While in Game 3 the Golden Knights submitted a nearly impeccable defensive performance, Game 4 saw the Stars’ defencemen aggressive on their pinches to keep the play alive in the offensive zone. The Stars’ forecheck made an impact in Game 4.

But when the forecheck failed, it was a disaster. On the Karlsson goal, the Stars’ Ryan Suter stepped up on the strong side pinch but failed to come away with the puck. Dallas was unsuccessful destabilizing the zone exit, leading to Robertson whiffing on his box-out of Karlsson. Vegas grabbed a 1-0 lead.

On the Marchessault goal, the sequence started off with Dallas’s Miro Heiskanen stepping up and trying to hold the blue line. He couldn’t keep the puck in the Stars’ possession, and it was passed by Mark Stone to Jack Eichel, who seized on the speed mismatch against Suter to produce a breakaway. Oettinger denied Eichel’s solo bid, but Vegas retrieved the puck and imposed extensive offensive-zone time. The sequence ended with Marchessault creating separation from Suter and banging home a shot from below the circles.

The Stars nearly fell behind by two goals after a failed forecheck that led to an Eichel 2-on-1. Thanks to a great save by Oettinger, it stayed a one-shot game. The Stars need to control offensive zone time, but their aggressive forecheck surrendered odd-man rushes in Game 4. Oettinger bailed them out on Thursday, but can he be relied on?

In Games 1, 2, and 3, Oettinger had a negative Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx). He hit a positive number in Game 4, but his extremely inconsistent play has him in lowly company for GSAx among playoff goaltenders, only besting Stuart Skinner and Vitek Vanecek.

If someone tells you they know what to expect from Oettinger in Game 5, you have my permission to call them a liar. And with the margin for error so thin, it’s deeply concerning that, if Oettinger is shaky in Game 5, it could derail the contest for Dallas quickly. For an example, see Game 3.

Vegas’s three consecutive victories in the conference finals were characterized by not surrendering space easily and forcing puck management miscues from Dallas. Due to the Golden Knights’ offensive versatility when attacking off the rush or forecheck, the Stars struggled to box out and sort out their defensive coverage. A more energetic and focused Vegas squad should be able to will this into being in Game 5.

I don’t know if Vegas being home gives them any more hope for shutting down the Robertson line. But it feels noteworthy that the Stars are 3-5 on the road this postseason and Vegas is 6-2 at home. Ultimately, having the last change or not, if Dallas has been reduced to a one-line team, and Vegas avoids the penalty box, I am dubious of the Stars’ scoring prospects.

As impressed as I am by Wyatt Johnston and his extraordinarily bright future, his line with Tyler Seguin and Mason Marchment is primed to be victimized in Game 5. Also, the Max Domi third line looked impressive in Game 4, but if Vegas does a better job eliminating the Dallas stretch pass and denies easy entries, I think that line’s scoring chances will be marginalized. The playoff sample size is large enough that most regulars have had a few bright moments, but it seems relevant that among its forwards who have played 12 or more playoff games, Marchment ranks ninth in expected goals per 60 minutes and Domi ranks 13th. Indefatigable offensive creators they are not.

Vegas goaltender Adin Hill has the third best GSAx in the playoffs right now. The Golden Knights are allowing 10.57 high-danger chances against when the score is within one, which is remarkably close to what they yielded during the regular season. They are a tough team to get inside against, and Dallas just doesn’t have many players who can achieve that result. As such, I like the Golden Knights’ moneyline and Marchment and Domi’s point unders since neither player sees first unit power-play time.

Picks: Golden Knights -135, Mason Marchment U 0.5 points -190,

Max Domi U 0.5 points -155