Columnist image

TSN Raptors Reporter

| Archive

TORONTO – Happy salary cap New Year!

For all intents and purposes, the 2021-22 NBA campaign came to an end once the Golden State Warriors were crowned champions a couple weeks ago, and we’re more than three months away from opening night.

Officially, though, the league is getting set to turn the page. Out with the old season and in with the new. Internal audits and the start of another fiscal calendar may not get you fired up, but the result rarely disappoints. NBA free agency is here.

The window for teams to negotiate with players opens at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, and all signings can be made official once the new cap numbers are set and the moratorium is lifted next week.

This isn’t the strongest free-agent class in recent memory, but no matter. One way or another, this time of year tends to produce drama.

Transaction season has yet to kick off and we’ve already been treated to a high-stakes game of chicken between Brooklyn and Kyrie Irving as well as a few noteworthy trades, including the deal that sent all-star guard Dejounte Murray from San Antonio to Atlanta for a haul of draft picks on Wednesday evening.

For the Raptors, this was always expected to be a quiet off-season, and it seems to be playing out that way. Although they’ve been the subject of recent trade speculation, don’t forget that this is an organization that values continuity and has stated its intention to keep the team’s young core together while continuing to develop and build around it.

There are a few obvious caveats. They also value flexibility and have shown they’re not afraid to pivot when the situation calls for it. They’re opportunistic, and as hard as it is to imagine them making a big move this summer, never say never in this crazy league.

Here’s a look at where Toronto stands heading into the start of free agency.
 

What’s the latest on OG Anunoby?

This seems like a good place to start considering the fuss it’s caused over the past few weeks. Anunoby’s name came up in multiple reports leading up to last week’s draft. The implication was that teams were sniffing around, expressing interest in the talented 24-year-old forward, and that the Raptors didn’t immediately hang up on them, all of which are true.

It’s reminiscent of the Pascal Siakam trade speculation from last summer. Those rumours were driven by teams that sensed an opportunity to buy low, with Siakam coming off a down season. The Raptors listened to offers, as they usually do, and told those teams that he’s available but only at their price, which remained justifiably high.

Anunoby has undeniable value in the market as a good two-way wing just entering his prime and with term left on a team-friendly contract. But he’s also missed 63 games over the past two seasons and may not be entirely thrilled with his role as the fourth or fifth option in Toronto offence, which is why the offers have been underwhelming.

The Blazers were one team that pursued Anunoby ahead of the draft, dangling the seventh-overall selection they wound up using on Canadian prospect Shaedon Sharpe. But the Raptors haven’t and won’t seriously consider deals that don’t make them better now, or at least in the very near future.

It’s not crazy to think that they could look to move Anunoby at some point down the road. This group is going to get very expensive in the next few years, and if they were to consolidate a couple pieces to chase an established star, shopping Anunoby would make sense. He’s more expendable than Siakam, Fred VanVleet or Scottie Barnes, and he’s got more value than Gary Trent Jr., who can opt out of his deal after next season.

They’re probably not at the point where they can push their chips in and go for it all, but they also don’t think they’re too far away from being at that level. They’re certainly not going to do anything that sets them back in that process. Unless the right opportunity presents itself, like it did with Kawhi Leonard in 2018, their plan is to stay the course.

As for the notion that Anunoby isn’t fully satisfied with his current role, that’s not hard to believe, but so what? Most NBA players – the vast majority – think they should be doing more. It would be worrisome if they didn’t. They wouldn’t have made it to this level without that occasionally irrational sense of self-confidence. Anunoby was in Toronto ahead of the draft, working out with Siakam and Barnes at the team’s practice facility. There’s been no indication that this will be an issue moving forward.

 

Are they in the market for an elite big man?

If they were to make a big move this summer, it would appear the centre position is their priority. The Raptors have been linked to a couple of game-changing bigs in Utah’s Rudy Gobert and Phoenix’s Deandre Ayton.

After another early playoff exit, it’s believed that the Jazz could be willing to move on from Gobert, though it’s unclear what the asking price would be for the three-time Defensive Player of the Year winner. He’s owed nearly $170 million over the next four years, including $38 million this coming season, meaning Toronto would have to part with Anunoby and Trent just to match his salary, not to mention any draft compensation that Utah would require.

Ayton is a restricted free agent and seems to have fallen out of favour in Phoenix, but as an above-the-cap team, the Raptors don’t have the space to sign him outright. They would need to acquire him via a sign-and-trade with the Suns, and assuming he gets something resembling his maximum salary, it could also end up costing them Anunoby and Trent.

The Raptors have needed an upgrade at centre since they lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol. Last season, they essentially opted to forgo the position entirely as opposed to adding a traditional big who may not have fit their system. When you’ve got a player like Gobert or Ayton, you tailor your system around them. They’re that good.

But their need at centre is a bit overstated. They want to continue developing Precious Achiuwa as a small-ball five and, when healthy, consider Khem Birch to be a reliable backup. Second-round pick Christian Koloko gives them some depth and size at the position, though he’s still in the early stages of his development and their plan is to bring him along slowly.

Their versatility and position-less lineups are more of a feature than a bug in today’s game. Neither Golden State nor Boston used a player taller than 6-foot-10 in the Finals, and you can bet Toronto took note. That’s where the league is trending, and the Raptors have been ahead of the curve.

If Gobert or Ayton are made available, those guys will be in high demand and there’s no guarantee that the Raptors will be able to make the best offer. Even if they can, are they willing to?


What about their own free agents?

Again, the far more likely scenario is that the Raptors keep their core together and use free agency to supplement it. A lack of reliable depth forced Nurse to lean heavily on his starters last season, so it’s important that they get this right. Retaining their own unrestricted free agents will be crucial in building out their bench.

They’ve got a couple rotation players who will hit the open market on Thursday evening, Chris Boucher and Thaddeus Young, and the team is confident they’ll be able to keep them both. The Raptors have their Bird rights, meaning they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign them, and because they’ve got enough wiggle room under the luxury tax line, they should be able to make them competitive offers once free agency opens.

As usual, they’re probably willing to overpay slightly on one or two years deals if it means maintaining their long-term flexibility. For Boucher, who will turn 30 in January, maybe that means going as high as $24-26 million over two years. For the 34-year-old Young, who could generate interest from contending teams, the $6.4 million taxpayer midlevel exception is a rough estimate of what it could take.

After a rough start to the campaign, Boucher played the best basketball of his career over the second half of the season as he finally found his niche and embraced his role as an energy player off the bench.

Young helped solidify the team’s struggling second unit after he was acquired from San Antonio for the expiring contract of Goran Dragic and Toronto’s first-round pick at the trade deadline. Landing his Bird rights in the deal was a big reason why the Raptors made the move. They were happy with what the 15-year vet brought, both on and off the court, and it’s hard to imagine them moving down 13 spots in the draft if they didn’t intend to bring him back.

Moreover, because they’re over the cap, they don’t have the means to replace those guys in the event that they decide to go elsewhere.

 

How can they add?

The Raptors have access to their non-taxpayer midlevel exception of roughly $10.5 million and their $4.1 million biannual exception. You can’t combine the two exceptions, but with so few teams possessing significant cap space this summer, that midlevel could go a long way in addressing a need or two.

Those needs include shooting, depth in the backcourt and, of course, the centre position. So, who’s out there that might fit?

With a suddenly loaded frontcourt that includes the recently selected first-overall pick, Paolo Banchero, the Magic declined to extend Mo Bamba a qualifying offer this week, making him an unrestricted free agent. Bamba’s motor runs hot and cold but he’s coming off a breakout fourth NBA season in which he shot 38 per cent from three-point range. At 7-feet tall with an enormous 7-foot-10 wingspan, he checks off a few boxes for Toronto. The question is whether the former sixth-overall pick will be able to get more than the midlevel from a rebuilding team that views him as an intriguing redraft candidate.

Is the midlevel enough to pry wiry 23-year-old big man Nic Claxton, a restricted free agent, away from Brooklyn? Isaiah Hartenstein, the smooth-passing centre who’s coming off a career season with the Clippers, could be a cheaper option.

But assuming Boucher and Young are back, the more pressing need is in the backcourt. Veteran guard Gary Harris shot 38 per cent with Orlando last year and doesn’t hurt you on defence. Malik Monk hit 39 per cent of his threes as a Laker, and while he’s reportedly leaning towards a return to L.A., maybe he could be swayed by the full midlevel.

Adding some depth at point guard could lessen the toll on VanVleet, who wore down as the season went on. Memphis’ Tyus Jones has established himself as one of the top backup point guards in the league but may have earned a starting gig – and the raise that goes with it – with his strong play while Ja Morant was out. With his length and quickness, former Raptor Delon Wright would fit nicely on this roster and could be expendable in Atlanta after the Murray trade.

If everything goes according to plan, there will only have a couple roster spots to fill. To little surprise, sparingly used wing Svi Mykhailiuk picked up his player option, giving Toronto nine guaranteed contracts for next season. Boucher and Young would make it 11. The salary protection on Dalano Banton’s partially guaranteed deal goes up on July 4 and then becomes fully guaranteed if he’s not waived before opening night. He’s expected to make the roster. You can also pencil Justin Champagnie – who impressed on a two-way deal last year – in for a spot.

Finally, their biggest decision will come later in the summer when VanVleet and Siakam become eligible for contract extensions.

VanVleet and the Raptors can begin negotiating a new deal on July 8. If they don’t reach an agreement before opening night, he can opt out of his current contract and become a free agent after the season. Considering the Knicks are reportedly prepared to offer Mavericks free agent point guard Jalen Brunson a deal in the neighbourhood of $110 million, Toronto probably doesn’t have much room to negotiate on a VanVleet extension. He’s eligible to sign a four-year $114.2 million deal this summer, and there’s a reasonable chance it gets done.

There’s less urgency to extend Siakam, who has a couple more guaranteed years left on his deal. He’ll have a two-week negotiation window that opens at the start of October.