Breaking down the AL and NL MVP races

MLB Award season reaches its climax Thursday evening with the American and National League MVP Awards.

With baseball set to hand out its biggest pieces of individual hardware, TSN.ca takes a look at the case for each of the candidates.

---

AMERICAN LEAGUE

 

Shohei Ohtani

There is only one question when it comes to Shohei Ohtani’s MVP candidacy for 2021 and it has nothing to do with whether or not he’ll win it.

Because he will. Easily.

The only thing left to answer is if anyone, anyone at all, votes against him.

The two-way sensation is looking to become the first unanimous AL winner since teammate Mike Trout in 2014.

And Ohtani’s offensive numbers even rival that.  

Trout slashed .287/.377/.561 with 36 homers, 111 RBI and 16 stolen bases that season. Ohtani hit 46 homers, drove in 100 and stole 26 bases while slashing .257/.372/.592.

And then there’s what he did on the mound.

Ohtani turned in a 3.18 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 23 starts spread out over 130.1 innings and turned in a record of 9-2. While the win-loss category doesn’t mean much for pitchers anymore, it’s impressive he was able to do that on an Angels team that finished eight games below .500 at 77-85.
According to Baseball Reference, Ohtani finished seventh in Wins Above Replacement among AL pitchers (4.1) and he would have finished third in ERA had he qualified. Among AL pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2021, Ohtani was ninth.

Add that all up and you’ve got your MVP and a season unlike any other in the modern era.

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

After two up-and-down seasons to begin his much-anticipated big league career, Guerrero Jr. finally lived up to what he was expected to be.

The 22-year-old finished in a tie with Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals for the lead in home runs with 48 and also led the league in on-base percentage (.401), slugging percentage (.601), OPS (1.002) and total bases (363).

Guerrero was named to the American League All-Star Team for the first time in his career and took home All-Star Game MVP honours after a mammoth home run off National League CY Young winner Corbin Burnes.

His 2021 season was phenomenal and Blue Jays fans are thrilled. And if he has another year like that, he might well find his name on the trophy.

But not this time.

 

Marcus Semien

Semien played in all 162 games and hit a personal-best 45 home runs with 102 RBI and was named to the American League All-Star Team for the first time in his career. He also took home the American League Gold Glove Award – the first of his career – for second base despite playing there full-time for the first time in his career with Bo Bichette getting the majority of starts at shortstop.

The Bay Area native also led the Blue Jays with a Wins Above Replacement of 7.2 and led the league in plate appearances (724).

If Guerrero was Toronto’s No. 1 hitter last season, Semien was no lower than 1A. And if you wanted to argue Semien’s elite play in the field combined with his ability to play multiple positions and run the bases efficiently – he was successful on 15 of his 16 stolen base attempts – makes him the most valuable Blue Jay in 2021, you could.

Semien finished third in AL MVP voting while with the A’s in 2019 and he’s guaranteed to finish no worse than that Thursday evening.

That’s quite the resume to take into a free agent negotiation.

 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

 

Bryce Harper

The Philadelphia Phillies own the longest playoff drought in the National League, having missed out on the postseason in 10 straight years.

While there’s plenty of blame to go around in the City of Brotherly Love, it sure isn’t on Harper.

The $330 million man turned in possibly his most complete season since his first and only MVP victory thus far in 2015. He led the NL in OPS (1.044), slugging (.615) and doubles (42) while carrying a Phillies lineup that had just one other player turn in an OPS north of .800 (Rhys Hoskins, .864).

Harper revved up in the second half of the season, a feat MVP voters enjoy, slashing .338/.476/.713 with 19 homers and 46 RBI.

While the Las Vegas native was booed in his very first game for the Phillies – chalk that one up to the city he plays in – he has been as advertised since signing one of the biggest contracts in baseball history back in March of 2019.

Harper is likely bound for Cooperstown one day and another MVP to add to his collection of accolades will only help get him there faster.

 

Juan Soto

One of the toughest things to do in baseball last season was keep Juan Soto off first base.

The affable outfielder from the Washington Nationals turned in an absurd 145 walks en route to a .465 on-base percentage, well ahead of Harper’s second-place mark of .429. Soto also clubbed 29 homers, drove in 99 runs, led all NL position players in WAR (7.1) and earned the first All-Star Team selection of his career in which there are likely to be many more.

Oh, and he’s still only 23 years old.

But as good as Soto was in 2021, the Nationals were anything but. They finished last in a NL East Division that only took 88 games to win and were well out of the race by the beginning of August.

Soto hit .335 with an on-base percentage of .528 from Aug. 1 to the beginning of the season, meaning the best part of his production came with the Nats playing their least important games.

Whether or not that should be held against him is up for debate. And it could well determine if he’s named MVP.

 

Fernando Tatis Jr.

It looked like disaster had struck for Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres.

On the evening of July 30 in a game against the Colorado Rockies, the electric shortstop slid into third base awkwardly and wrenched his left shoulder, which had forced him to leave games two previous times during the year.

After initial reports indicated Tatis’ season might be over, things progressed better than expected and he only ended up missing two weeks.

The 22-year-old had been enjoying a monster season up until that point with 32 homers, 71 RBI and an OPS of 1.032 in 88 games.

But he tapered off a bit after returning from injury and finished the season with a slash line of .282/.364/.611, putting him just behind Soto for the NL position player WAR lead (7.1 to 6.5). He likely finishes ahead of Soto if he doesn’t miss 32 games and it makes him leading the NL in home runs with 42 even more impressive.

If he doesn’t miss those games in August and the Padres don’t collapse down the stretch of the season, who knows?