Week 7 on the NFL calendar wraps up on Monday Night Football as the Bears visit the Patriots.

Shockingly, this will be Chicago’s third prime time game in seven weeks. Along with the Commanders, they set offensive football back a few decades last Thursday Night, but thankfully this will be their final island game of 2022.

New England meanwhile, is making their 2022 debut under the lights, and oddsmakers are bullish on their chances for success.

The Pats are currently 7.5 point favorites, in a contest that features a total of 40.5.

Teams: Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

Line: Patriots -7.5

Total: 40.5

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

The big story ahead of this contest is the return of Mac Jones under center. New England’s starting QB has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, but has been deemed fit to start.

The Pats were averaging only 16.6 points per game when he was healthy, but exploded on offence after Bailey Zappe took the reins.

New England has put up an average of 30.3 points per outing with Jones on the shelf, outscoring their opponents 91-42, and winning two straight.

Regardless of who’s under centre, the Pats are likely going to continue to stick with a run heavy game plan.

Only five teams in the league run at a higher rate than the Patriots, while the Bears defence is vulnerable on the ground. Chicago ranks 27th against the run per DVOA, surrendering an average of 163 rushing yards per game.

That should put Rhamondre Stevenson on our radar in the player props market, as the over/under for his rushing prop is only 63.5 yards at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unlike the past two weeks when Stevenson had full control of the backfield, he’ll likely have to cede a few reps to Damien Harris who is back this week from injury.

Nevertheless, Stevenson looked fantastic while rushing for over 220 yards in the two games Harris missed, which should earn him the bulk of the carries.

Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

Justin Fields and the Bears enter play fresh off three straight losses. They’ve averaged only 13.6 points per game in those outings, and life won’t get any easier against New England.

The Patriots rank seventh in total defense per DVOA, and have allowed only 15 total points in their last two contests. Bill Belichick is a master of taking away a team’s biggest strength, which for the Bears is their run game.

No team runs more frequently than Chicago, in large part to cover up Fields’ shortcomings. Expect the Pats to crowd the box relentlessly, forcing Fields to drop back more often than the Bears would like.

Anyone who’s watched Fields play over the past two seasons has to be pessimistic about his chances for success against a Belichick defense. He ranks 32nd in the NFL in quarterback rating and has exceeded 190 passing yards once all season.

Despite starting every game this season, Fields has fewer completions than Joe Flacco, and the Jets back-up QB hasn’t played since Week 3.

Best Bets

These are two teams going in complete opposite directions. New England is peaking at the moment and with a win will climb over .500 and into playoff contention.

Chicago on the other hand, is the second lowest graded team in the league per DVOA and has been outscored by 32 points in three road games.

The icing on the cake: Rookie and second-year quarterbacks are 3-42 in Foxboro against Belichick and the Pats since 2003.

Picks: New England Patriots -7.5 (-115), Under 40.5 (-114), Rhamondre Stevenson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-113)