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TORONTO — As the Toronto Blue Jays went their separate ways for the all-star break, the narrative emerging from the clubhouse this month is the one you’d expect: Everyone feels they’re better than their record.

Many, including most of the metrics, would agree with that assessment. Based on run differential alone, the Jays should be sitting on a 50-37 record, five games better than what they actually are.

Thank the bullpen’s ugly run in late May and early June for that disagreement.

As Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien and Teoscar Hernandez were heading to Denver for the Midsummer Classic, manager Charlie Montoyo’s assessment of his club’s first half was an honest one.

It’s no secret where this team must improve in the second half to stay in the race, and it starts with pitching and defence.

“The offence did what we thought they were going to do,” Montoyo said. “We swung the bats, of course. Our bullpen was really good at the beginning, and then guys got hurt. I don’t have to mention names. We lost a lot of guys. And then the bullpen struggled and that’s why our record’s not as good as it should be. Our starters for the most part gave us a chance and our defence needs to keep improving.

“Overall, I think, we had a good half, but we need to keep improving.”

At 5.1 runs per game, the offence sits tied for third in the American League with the Boston Red Sox, behind only the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox.

The only reason the Jays’ bullpen woes didn’t send them into a complete tailspin in June was the yeoman’s work the rotation was doing, as it currently sits sixth in the American League with a 4.00 ERA on the nose.

It hasn't been perfect, though, and it shows in the overall numbers, with the Jays’ rotation accumulating just 3.6 fWAR, which is just 12th in the AL and ahead of only cellar dwellers like the Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers.

One reason is the home run ball, as the Jays as a rotation have served up 80 of them already, one less than the 61-loss Orioles.

How the Blue Jays add to, structure and deploy their pitching staff in the second half of the season will be the difference between a second straight trip to the postseason and a disappointing near-miss.

THINGS I PROBABLY TWEETED

After selecting Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund with the 19th pick on Sunday night, Blue Jays amateur scouting director Shane Farrell continued a pitching-heavy theme on Day 2 of the MLB Draft on Monday. In total, the Jays took pitchers with seven of their first eight selections … Thanks to the George Springer signing, the Jays didn’t have a second rounder, so their only other top 100 pick after Hoglund ended up being California junior college lefty Ricky Tiedemann, a 6-foot-4, 220-pounder, who possesses a good changeup, a slider, and a fastball that currently sits in the low-90s … At the unofficial halfway point, FanGraphs is still giving the Jays a 34.1 per cent chance to make the playoffs, but the issue is that’s still the fourth-best odds in the division … Only eight teams in baseball have losing records at home and the Jays are one of them. They’re the only contender under .500 in their own ballpark(s), but is anyone really surprised given the adversity they’ve faced?

STAT DIG: 4.6 fWAR

Not much more needs to be said about Guerrero Jr.’s first half, but after accumulating just 0.6 fWAR through his first two seasons in the big leagues Vladdy has been the most valuable hitter in the sport this season and is nearly halfway to a monster 10 WAR campaign.

That’s Mike Trout territory.

Overall, Jacob deGrom’s untouchable stuff has led to 4.8 fWAR this season, but it’s Vladdy vs. Shohei Ohtani in the American League MVP race and it’s not even going to be close.

The tiebreaker might be which of their respective teams can sneak into the postseason.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“I was thinking, ‘I wonder how many pitches we’re going to let him throw?’ I was thinking 115, 120. Everybody was thinking about it, of course. He was on, man. It was fun to watch. And we needed that.”

—Charlie Montoyo on his thought process when Robbie Ray carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning at Tropicana Field on Sunday

THE CALL-UP LIST

Five players closest to a promotion to the big leagues when a need arises:

1—LHP Ryan Borucki, Triple-A rehab: A pair of scoreless appearances with the Bisons has him close to a return from his latest elbow injury.

2—C Alejandro Kirk, Triple-A rehab: Kirk’s bat has looked good in 31 plate appearances, but the Jays seem content with the Danny Jansen/Reese McGuire duo for now, leaving Kirk to percolate.

3—RHP Thomas Hatch, Triple-A: The righty spun five shutout frames last time out, allowing just one hit and striking out six. He’s starter No. 6 right now in case of injury, but he could show up in a bullpen role fairly soon, too.

4—SS/3B Kevin Smith, Triple-A: The excellent play of Santiago Espinal in a key utility role is keeping Smith and his emerging bat with the Bisons.

5—RHP Julian Merryweather, injured: He had a minor setback with his oblique injury recently, but the Jays are still crossing their fingers they’ll get his 99-mph fastball back in the next few weeks.

PROSPECT SPOTLIGHT

Highlighting one player in the system that you need to know about:

SS/CF Austin Martin, Double-A New Hampshire

The first half of his first pro season has been an interesting one for the 2020 fifth-overall pick, who recently found himself in concussion protocol after being hit in the head by a pitch.

Martin ended up missing about 10 days, but returned to the Fisher Cats’ lineup in early July, before appearing in Sunday’s Futures Game event in Denver.

The 22-year-old came off the bench to play some shortstop in the game, eventually working a walk and delivering an RBI single.

The aspect of Martin’s game to pay attention to is still the power because he hasn’t shown much yet in his first 198 plate appearances.

While the plate approach has been as good as billed with a .394 on-base percentage, Martin has swatted just two homers so far.

The amount of pop is going to be the difference between and impact player and a versatile player who will still be able to help.​