If a heavyweight believes they belong in the division’s title conversation, the best way to prove it is by defeating veteran Alistair Overeem (46-18-0).

Where Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik have all succeeded, Walt Harris and Sergey Pavlovich have failed.

The next in line for their heavyweight litmus test is Augusto Sakai, who has a 15-1-1 career record, with his lone loss coming by split decision.

Having won four straight, the Brazilian looks to take the next step in his career, but it will not be easy with Overeem being by far his toughest test to date.

Veteran savvy valued over upside

Alistair Overeem (-150) vs. Augusto Sakai (+130)

Having won three of his last four, with the only loss coming in the final seconds of a five-round main event against Rozenstruik, Overeem looks to make one last push for the heavyweight title that has eluded him during his UFC tenure by defeating Sakai.

Line analysis:

Saturday will be the six-year anniversary of his loss to Ben Rothwell, which is the last time that Overeem lost to a fighter that was not considered part of the heavyweight elite.

Those who have defeated Overeem have ended up in the division’s top-5 and with Sakai in the bottom half of the division’s top-10, he is the sort of fighter that Overeem has had great success against recently.

This line reflects that this is a close bout, but one that Overeem should win 60 per cent of the time based on the line being converted into implied probability.

History would indicate that he has a better chance than that and this is a situation where the price on Overeem likely has some value.

Demolidor Returns

Michel "Demolidor" Pereira (-105) vs. Zelim Imadaev (-115)

After one of the most impressive debuts in recent memory, a flying knee knockout over Danny Roberts in the first round of their bout in May of 2019, Pereira has gone on to lose two in a row.

He looks to bounce back against Imadaev, who has lost in both of his UFC outings.

Line Analysis:

This line indicates that the public has fallen out of love with Pereira, whose mandate has been to be as entertaining as possible when he is in the cage. 

That modus operandi has caused Pereira to be reckless, often exerting his energy dancing on the way to the cage. In his previous bout against Diego Sanchez, it cost him a win with a sloppy knee to the head of a downed Sanchez, resulting in a disqualification loss in a bout he was winning handily.

It does strike me as odd that Imadaev, who has lost both of his UFC fights as a large favourite, has received public support as a result.

The lone Canadian

Cole Smith (+185) vs. Hunter Azure (-225)

Cole Smith of Squamish, B.C., looks to bounce back from his first career loss, a split decision defeat at the hands of Miles John in nearby Vancouver.

Nearly a year later, Smith returns to face Azure, who in May suffered his first career loss as well - a knockout by Brian Kelleher, who also competes on this card.

Line Analysis:

This line does not give much credit to Smith, who has some solid advantages in this matchup.

Smith will have a height advantage while Azure has better wrestling credentials. But Smith is likely the better overall grappler.

This one could come down to volume as Smith has struggled in that department, landing only 1.63 significant strikes per minute, which is at the very low end of the bantamweight division.

Azure has been known to throw good volume but is prone to making mistakes, which is where Smith often likes to capitalize with his strong counters and tricky grappling.

Odds and Ends:

  • Overeem is 8-3 as a favourite in the UFC.
  • This is the first bout in which Sakai is an underdog in the UFC.
  • Menifield is 2-1 as a favourite in the UFC and was more than a two-to-one favourite in those bouts.
  • Saint Preux is 4-4 as an underdog in the UFC.
  • This is the first time that Jalin Turner has been an underdog in a lightweight bout in the UFC. He is 2-1 as a UFC lightweight.

Odds courtesy of 5 Dimes