Mar 18, 2021
Depth dwindling, but Jays’ early-season rotation coming into focus
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the healthiest teams in baseball this spring, but with exactly two weeks to go until opening day in the Bronx, that depth they spent the winter building is starting to take hits. Scott Mitchell has more on what the rotation could look like early on.
Injuries to pitchers are a part of baseball life.
The cliché phrase “you can never have enough pitching” is as true as it gets and that’s exactly why teams spend off-season time trying to build depth and in-season time scouring the waiver wire and trade market for more.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the healthiest teams in baseball this spring, but with exactly two weeks to go until opening day in the Bronx, that depth they spent the winter building is starting to take hits.
First it was top prospect Nate Pearson’s setback with his mild right groin strain.
On Wednesday it was Thomas Hatch walking off the mound at TD Ballpark in Dunedin with an apparent arm issue, leaving the Jays without a versatile young starter who was expected to play a role in some capacity early in the season. He may also have been their best option when one of the five veteran names expected to start the year in the rotation faltered or got hurt.
Termed right elbow/forearm discomfort by the club, it looked ominous, and the 26-year-old right-hander was immediately sent for an MRI and further testing.
With the Jays enjoying their final off-day Thursday before the Grapefruit League schedule comes to a close March 29, the club is expected to officially update Hatch’s status Friday morning.
“How I felt and how Pete Walker felt when that happened, everybody gets sick to your stomach,” manager Charlie Montoyo said when Hatch called for trainers in the top of the third inning after throwing his 48th pitch of the day to Yankees’ slugger Aaron Judge.
“We right away went to the trainer's room to see how he was doing. That's why we know that it was smart that he got out when he did. And now, of course, we've got to run through tests and stuff to see how he's doing.”
One day earlier, Jays general manager Ross Atkins sorted through the club’s rotation options during a long chat with the media.
He noted that health and performance over the final two weeks of camp will play a role in which five starters take the mound over the first two series of the season, starting with a three-gamer in New York, followed by a trip to the wild, wild west that is fan-friendly Texas.
With the obvious health caveats needed, especially now, the five rotation arms are expected to be Hyun-Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Tanner Roark and Ross Stripling.
That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be rolled out in that order, or without the use of openers in order to get creative.
“We’ll be thinking about those first couple of series knowing that our 26-man roster could look differently for the third of fourth series based on having to get through that, and maybe our starting pitchers won’t be stretched out quite as far as they will be at that point,” Atkins said. “So much of it will depend upon us continuing to have a pretty good camp from a health and performance standpoint and at that point just see where those final decisions rest.”
Since the Yankees are able to roll out a powerful, right-handed-heavy lineup, the Jays may try to get sneaky and would obviously love to avoid throwing three straight southpaws.
With a five-man taxi squad in place once again this season — it’s technically four if we’re talking pitching since one of those names has to be a catcher — the pitching staff will be set up series by series based on usage.
“I think in an ideal world you would like to have some balance there, but it also depends upon who you’re playing at the start of the season and we have some pretty heavy right-handed-hitting lineups at the start of the season, so we want to factor that in, as well,” Atkins said of his three lefties locked into rotation spots. “But typically would like to balance that.”
Roark was hit hard by everyone last year, finishing with a 6.80 ERA in his first year of a two-year, $24-million contract.
But he was crushed by right-handers to the tune of a 1.208 OPS and 10 of his 14 homers allowed across 47.2 innings.
Starting him at Yankee Stadium doesn’t seem like a great idea.
Stripling didn’t fare any better, allowing a 1.030 OPS and seven of his 13 homers given up were to right-handed batters.
Those reverse platoon splits aren’t going to help the Jays confidently wedge one of them behind Ryu and Ray, or ahead of Matz, but Roark and Stripling did make adjustments over the winter and have looked sharp so far this spring.
The small-sample-size nature of the 2020 season cannot be ignored, both good and bad.
“There’s been a lot of positive in and around camp as it relates to our pitching,” Atkins said. “From Tanner Roark and the work that he did this off-season, physically and fundamentally. Robbie Ray’s progress this off-season, the continuation of last year and the success he had in Toronto. Obviously, Hyun-Jin Ryu looked fantastic (Monday against the Tigers) and there’s been so many good, young pitching performances that makes us feel really good about the depth and I can’t say enough about the off-seasons that the individuals had this year. It really has put us in a good spot from that perspective.
“Obviously, Strip, with what he’s done in his career, has a leg up on that spot, and it’s not where he’s necessarily in the five spot.”
If Pearson’s groin strain is maybe a blessing in disguise as the Jays look to limit his workload early on coming off just 20 total innings and a concerning elbow strain in 2020, losing Hatch is the opposite.
It leaves lefty Anthony Kay and right-handers Trent Thornton and T.J. Zeuch as the depth options behind the veterans.
There’s also veteran lefty Tommy Milone in camp as a non-roster invitee, but Joey Murray — you can read about him here — is an intriguing option for later on down the line, especially if Hatch is sidelined for an extended period.
The Jays would like to keep Kay, Zeuch, Thornton and Murray all stretched out as starters, but that’s going to be near impossible with all the variables at play and winning games being the priority.
It’s a balancing act.
With the minor-league season not starting until May 4 at the earliest and the Jays’ alternate site being set up at their player development complex across town from TD Ballpark in Dunedin, the Jays will weigh all of the options and try to find the best matchups, a situation compounded by the fact they play opening day, have a day off April 2, and then face a stretch of 16 games in 16 days.
They will be forced to get creative at some point, even if Pearson and Hatch were two of the more interesting early-season piggyback candidates.
Julian Merryweather, who’s still dealing with some back tightness, could be an option in shorter stints, but the Jays have given up on the idea of using him as any sort of traditional starter. He should be a high-leverage option at some point this season, health permitting.
“The way we’re thinking about it is we believe those guys can start and want to keep them on that trajectory,” Atkins said. “But if we are building a team for a couple of weeks and our best chance to put the best team or the best roster in place for those seven to 14 days involves making an adjustment without losing sight of that long-term growth and development, and knowing we are in a very different time where they’re not going to be sliding right into a Triple-A rotation, we will have a have a slightly different look to things. We just missed a season of development for some of them that wasn’t quote, unquote quite as traditional. We are open to thinking about guys in a short-term different capacity, but make sure we don’t want to lose sight of the value of a starting pitcher.”
For the five aforementioned veteran names, they’ll attempt get as many innings out of them as they can.
“Ideally, we give every one of those starters the best chance to have 130- to a 200-inning season,” Atkins said. “And the only way to give them the best chance to do that is to start the season with that goal in mind, depending what they’ve done in the past, what they’re coming off of (in 2020), putting them in a position to have a more traditional year. Each individual and each case is slightly different.”
From the clear need for more top-of-the-rotation impact to obvious questions surrounding the names currently in place, early on it may be up to what could be one of the best offences in baseball to pick up the slack and simply slug it out.