3h ago
Setting The Pick – Conference Finals best bets
The Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a commanding 2-0 lead and sit at -3000 to win their series. While the Minnesota Timberwolves have hung around for the first half of both games, OKC has run away in the third quarter twice in a row, outscoring Minny 67-39. Given the tone of this series, here are three bets I’m looking at as I anticipate a tighter fight in Target Center.
By Wesley Cheng
The New York Knicks obituary looks to be coming faster than scriptwriters would’ve liked.
Given the history between the Pacers and Knicks, the NBA world was hoping for a modern-day sequel renewing their rivalry.
The viewership data speaks for itself.
Unfortunately after Game 2, the series might already be over.
The Knicks are currently +420 to win the series on FanDuel; a generous price considering the history against them.
Only six teams out of 82 teams have ever come back from down 2-0 in the Conference Finals.
Zero have accomplished the feat when losing Games 1 and 2 at home.
Perhaps the destruction of New York City will have to wait another year.
On the opposite side of the bracket, another short series is on the horizon.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have taken a commanding 2-0 lead and sit at -3000 to win their series.
While the Minnesota Timberwolves have hung around for the first half of both games, OKC has run away in the third quarter twice in a row, outscoring the T'Wolves 67-39.
This is what OKC does - in the blink of an eye, they can roll a 10-0 run on you and blow open the game.
Given the tone of this series, here are three bets I’m looking at as I anticipate a tighter fight in Target Center.
Anthony Edwards 8+ rebounds (-102)
Ant-Man only averaged 5.7 rebounds per game during the regular season so if you’re cautious, I don’t blame you.
The books are daring you to take the over.
But there are a few reasons why I’m counting on him to build on his back-to-back nine rebound performances.
First off, I expect Minnesota to go smaller as an adjustment down 2-0. Rudy Gobert is an effective rim protector, but OKC has been cooking them in the mid-range (a strength of their offence).
OKC is scoring 1.32 points per possession when running pick-and-roll at Gobert.
If his role is reduced in Game 3, it’ll open the door for more collective rebounding from all other Timberwolves players.
Secondly, the Wolves played much more zone defence in Game 2.
Traditionally that leads to more boards for non-bigs. It’s a strategy I anticipate they’ll try again to get Gilgeous-Alexander ball-handling less.
I also love Edwards’ track-record in must-win games over his career.
In seven elimination games, he owns roughly a 10 percent bump in rebound and assist production compared to his other 32 playoff games.
He’s the ultimate competitor. I expect him to be more physical on the glass especially if his shot isn’t falling.
Rudy Gobert under 15.5 points and rebounds (-118)
I alluded to it above - I think Gobert is getting played off the court this series.
His defensive strengths don’t align with SGA and Jalen Williams’ shot profile.
Offensively, OKC has been a Top-10 team all year at limiting looks around the rim.
When Minnesota is playing from behind, their path to victory exists beyond the three-point line.
They haven’t been looking for Gobert all series and unless it’s Mike Conley, I don’t see anyone leaning on him.
71 percent of his made shots all season have come off an assist.
The Thunder aren’t exactly a stout defensive rebounding team, but Minnesota has failed to make it a series-changing advantage.
Their offensive-rebounding advantage is only 25-18.
Gobert currently sits at 9.5 points and rebounds per game this series.
He’s gone under this line in 8-of-12 games these playoffs.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 7.5 points (-120)
If you prescribe to the theory that role players step up on home court, Alexander-Walker might be the one to answer the call up against his cousin, SGA.
So far in this series, his minutes have bumped up to 26.5 minutes per game, well above the 17.8 and 20.0 mpg he averaged in the prior two rounds.
They need his three-point shooting and occasional playmaking against an OKC defence that’s been progressively playing smaller and smaller lineups.
Through two games, he’s averaging 12.5 points per game on modest shooting splits (42/39/100).
Donte DiVincenzo and Conley are a combined 25 percent from the field thus far.
The Timberwolves simply can’t win a game if they continue shooting like that.
As head coach, Chris Finch, looks for solutions in a must-win game at home, I think NAW deserves more credit and is underpriced on FanDuel.
Count on Minny living and dying by the three-ball.