Jun 8, 2018
Timing will key for Jays in the trade market
Moving starter J.A. Happ to a contender early is the best way for the Blue Jays to maximize the return, Steve Phillips writes.
As the Blue Jays continue to flounder and lose ground in the AL East and Wild Card races, the reality of being sellers at the trade deadline begins to sink in.
Last week, I suggested that J.A. Happ could end up being the Toronto’s most valuable trade commodity at the trade deadline if Josh Donaldson didn’t quickly heal and stay healthy. In a starting pitching market that’s a bit thin, Happ could be highly sought after.
The challenge for the Jays won’t be identifying the market; clubs will come calling. The issue is timing. Once the Jays decide officially that they are sellers, they will want to maximize Happ’s value. Almost always, a player’s trade value is greater the longer an acquiring team controls the new player. But the trick will be for the Jays to create a sense of urgency for their lefty starter even when he may not be the best pitcher available.
The Jays’ competition at the deadline will possibly include the following clubs and pitchers ranked from best to worst, including Happ:
Possible Selling Club Pitcher
Texas Rangers Cole Hamels (L)**
Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ (L)*
Detroit Tigers Michael Fulmer
Tampa Bay Rays Chris Archer
San Diego Padres Tyson Ross*
San Diego Padres Clayton Richard (L)*
Miami Marlins Dan Straily
Toronto Blue Jays Marco Estrada*
Detroit Tigers Mike Fiers*
Texas Rangers Doug Fister*
Chicago White Sox James Shields*
Kansas City Royals Danny Duffy (L)
Texas Rangers Bartolo Colon*
* Free agent after season ** Option for 2019
The playoff contenders that will be in the market for starting pitching include the New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, LA Angels, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Cole Hamels, 34, is the best pitcher of the group. He has postseason pedigree. He is a big-game pitcher and can elevate his performance in the toughest moments. He has an option for 2019 at $20 million with a $6 million buyout.
Happ, 35, is the second-best starter of the group. Happ has performed well against the powers in the AL in his career: Boston (7-3, 3.09 ERA), New York (8-3, 3.53 ERA), Houston (4-2, 3.33 ERA) and Cleveland (3-2, 4.19 ERA). In addition, he’s been pretty good against the team many believe is the best in the NL, the Washington Nationals (4-0, 2.45 ERA). His $13 million salary isn’t prohibitive, once prorated.
Michael Fulmer, 25, is the youngest of the group and has possibly the highest upside. He’s coming off of ulna nerve transposition surgery and hasn’t had a great season so far. But because an acquiring club will control the young righty for four seasons, he might command the biggest package in return.
Chris Archer, 29, is currently on the Tampa Bay Rays’ disabled list with a mild abdominal strain. He has declined in performance each of the last four seasons. A career that once looked promising as an ace has seen him decline to more of a No. 3 starter. He may be benefit from a change of scenery.
He’s better than his results and the lack of competitiveness may be taking a toll on him. His age and his contract status increase his value, though. He’s signed to a very club-favourable deal. He’s making $6.25 million this season and $7.5 million in 2019. He also has two affordable option years for 2020 and 2021 at $8.25 million per year.
Padres’ starter Tyson Ross, 31, is having an excellent season at 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA. He is holding the opposition to a .226 batting average and seven of his 12 outings have been quality starts. But he is 40-59 with a 3.86 ERA in his career and has never pitched in the post-season.
The rest of the available starters would be back-end of the rotation additions that could help a staff but wouldn’t necessarily be counted on as post-season starters.
The earlier the Jays make a deal, the better deal they can make. The more starts Happ could make for a contender, the more valuable he’ll be. The challenge will be trying to get a team to jump on him instead of waiting to see if they can get their hands on Hamels or the controllable guys like Fulmer or Archer.
They need a club to look at Happ as Plan A for them and not as a fallback to others. Ideally, a club without as deep of a farm system as others who aren’t really players on Hamels, Fulmer or Archer could be the trade partner. Also, non-rebuilding teams in it to win it this year would be a better fit. Rebuilding clubs will prefer the controllable pitchers.
Among the buyers, the clubs who seem to fit the criteria for a Happ deal are the Mariners, Angels, Giants and Dodgers. They are all more veteran rosters that can’t or won’t give away the farm for a starter. Ideally, the Jays would love to create a bit of a frenzy around Happ sooner rather than later to maximize his value to a trade partner and land the best possible return.
It is much more fun to buy than sell, but selling can be invigorating for executives as well because you know you are helping your club’s future.
Judge exemplifies modern baseball
New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge exemplifies the game today. He’s the king of the “three true outcomes” – walks, strikeouts and home runs. They are the only three outcomes of an at-bat that do not include the defence.
Last season, Judge had 678 plate appearances with 127 walks, 208 strikeouts and 52 home runs. Fifty-seven per cent of his at-bats were one of the three true outcomes. He had the second-highest percentage to Rangers slugger Joey Gallo (59 per cent).
The game is moving more in this direction than ever. Walks, strikeouts and homers continue to rise. Last season, hitters whiffed over 40,000 times for the first time ever. In 2017, the home run rate was the highest it has ever been as well, surpassing the 2000 season, which was in the heart of the steroid era. The walk rate was the highest in eight years and has risen in four straight seasons.
Every indication is the numbers in all three categories will rise again this season. This past April, there were more strikeouts than hits, which has never happened in any month previously in the game’s history. Hitters are on pace this season to increase the strikeout rate for the 13th straight season. The same can be said for walks as we are on pace for another increase and the highest total in 18 years. Homers are down just a bit this year but that may very well be due to bad weather and rainouts. Stay tuned.
Judge is on pace to be among the leaders in three true outcomes once again. The game has certainly changed from years past. In 1941, Hall of Famer Joe DiMaggio struck out only 13 times in 622 plate appearance. He hit 30 homers that year and walked 76 times. DiMaggio had seven seasons where he had more homers than strikeouts.
So, what has changed?
Players today sell out for home runs. Launch angle is an important factor in hitters’ swings. Analytics indicate that a team has a better chance to score a single run in an inning when three batters all try to hit homers rather than three batters all hitting singles.
Remember, in Judge’s short taste of the majors in 2016, he took the long walk back to the dugout 42 times in 84 at-bats. His strikeouts this year (32 per cent) are slightly ahead of his pace last season (30.6 per cent).
This past Tuesday, he set a record for strikeouts in a double header when he was punched out eight times, including five in the nightcap against the Tigers. But nobody is panicked – not the Yankees and not Judge. The Yankees are willing to live with the young slugger’s swings and misses because they know the contact will be there at some point and he’ll do damage with it.
Two of the three true outcomes are positive results: walks and homers. How a batter makes his outs doesn’t matter nearly as much if he is successful in the other areas. As long as Judge takes his walks and hits his homers the Yankees don’t mind that his outs are made with strikeouts.
His batting average is a more-than-adequate .276, but his on-base percentage is an elite .402. He will hit 50 or more homers again this season. He will walk 120-plus times again and he’ll likely strikeout more than 200 times again. If he keeps doing this for the next 15 years he will be a Hall of Famer. The strikeouts will only matter if he stops walking and homering.
Spitting Seeds
- The New York Yankees had a win off the field this week and the Blue Jays were indirectly involved. Recently, the Yankees players agreed to a doubleheader on Monday, July 9 against the Baltimore Orioles. As per the Basic Agreement, they had to give their approval for the rescheduling of the rained-out game from earlier this season. Shortly after agreeing to the twin bill, ESPN announced that the Yankees/Blue Jays Sunday game on July 8 in Toronto, originally scheduled for a 1:07 p.m. start, was being moved to an 8 p.m. start as the ESPN Sunday Night game. This meant the Yankees would have to play three games in a 28-hour window and have to fly from Toronto to Baltimore during that window as well. It was an extremely unfair expectation. The Yankees complained and ESPN changed the Sunday night game to the Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers interleague rivalry matchup. Common sense prevailed.
- The most intriguing draft pick in the MLB first-year players draft this week was made by the Oakland Athletics. They selected outfielder Kyler Murray from the University of Oklahoma. He just happens to be the likely starting quarterback for the Sooners this fall. He was the backup to Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield last year.
Murray is an extraordinary athlete who profiles as a power-hitting outfielder with great speed. He was arguably the best athlete in the draft. He’ll likely sign with the A’s and then still suit up for the Sooners this fall. The rules allow him or his advisor to negotiate a deal in baseball and still maintain his amateur status in football as long as the discussions are limited to baseball and he doesn’t sign any endorsement deals.
The move was a bit of a risk by Oakland, but because he’s only 5-foot-10, Murray isn’t seen as a future NFL player. He will ultimately choose baseball as his professional career. But in the meantime, he will be playing on Saturday afternoons for one of the elite college football programs. His development will be delayed a bit but he has shown great progress over the last two seasons on the baseball field and that makes Oakland believe it is only a matter of time before he is in the majors.
- Major-league teams love to scout tools, but they also scout genes. Every year there are young men drafted who are the sons, brothers and nephews of former major-league players. Scouts love that they share the genes of MLB talent but also that they understand the mentality of what it takes to be professional baseball players. They understand the grind of the season and how to deal with the success and failure inherent to the game.
A’s draftee, Kyler Murray, is the son of former Texas A&M quarterback and Brewers farmhand Kevin Murray and the nephew of former MLB outfielder Calvin Murray. The Tigers drafted Roger Clemens’ son, second baseman Kody Clemens, out of the University of Texas.
The Houston Astros are the leaders in baseball analytics and now the leader in baseball genetics as well. They drafted the brother of third baseman Alex Bregman (A.J. Bregman in the 35th round) and shortstop Carlos Correa (J.C. Correa in the Round 33). They also drafted the grandson of former Astros great Jose Cruz (Antonio Cruz in the 37th round).
These stories feel great but my experience is that the marriage is great but the divorce is painful.
When I ran the minor leagues for the Mets we had Bernie Millan, son of beloved Met Felix Millan, in the organization. Felix was one of our minor-league instructors. When we would discuss Bernie during organizational meetings we would ask Felix to leave the room so coaches and scouts could speak freely about Bernie’s skills and not worry about offending his dad. We traded Bernie to the Brewers rather than release him when we thought his skills had peaked. I sure didn’t want to face Felix if we had released his son.
We also had Preston Wilson, the son of former Mets’ great Mookie Wilson. Preston was a first-round pick and a top prospect. Preston was climbing his way up the minor-league ladder. In fact, he had a cup of coffee In New York as a member of the Mets in 1998 just before we traded him to the Miami Marlins in the deal that brought Mike Piazza to the Mets. When we made the Piazza deal everyone was excited and understood why we traded Preston and two other prospects away, except Mookie. He was disappointed. He had an expectation that Preston would follow in his footsteps and be a Mets star. It sounds great to add relatives to an organization, but only until someone’s feelings get hurt.
- Phillies’ ace pitcher Jake Arrieta recently voiced his frustrations about his team’s struggles. In fact, he took the scorched-earth approach. He criticized the lack of offence and run support he and his fellow starters got last weekend against the Dodgers. Arrieta was responsible for the only run the Phillies scored in the weekend with a solo homer.
He also called for accountability for everyone in the organization regarding the use of shifts. Rookie manager Gabe Kapler has been billed as one of the most shift-friendly skippers in the game. The idea is to position players in areas where the opposition most frequently hits the ball. However, a number of statistical sites, which quantify the success rates of shifting, have the Phillies as the least successful team using the creative positioning of fielders. Arrieta feels burned by shifts as well. He wants changes and shared it with everyone.
I’m sure he was trying to be a leader, but he called out everyone on the team and in the front office publicly, which is a no-no. I’m sure he wouldn’t like it if he had a bad game and his teammates or manager ripped him to the media. Arrieta is one of the game’s best competitors but some things are better shared in closed-door team meetings rather than with the rest of us.