For teams with realistic Stanley Cup aspirations, the NHL trade deadline is a time of unsparing reflection. While looking inward to identify weaknesses and vulnerabilities is difficult, addressing needs before a (hopefully) long playoff run is paramount.

With under three weeks to finalize rosters, my eyes are focused on teams that are coming off losses or have sputtered of late. I think we see several of the heavyweights put their foot on the pedal over this crucial stretch – with the nucleus demonstrating to the front office they need help and the depth players trying to keep their jobs.

New York Islanders at Boston Bruins

Saturday, February 18 – 5 PM ET

It took until December 5, nearly two months into the 2022-23 season, for the Bruins to record their fourth loss. They have now lost four of their last seven games. This team was so dominant to start the season that any hiccup looks like cause for alarm. But the Bruins have won their past two games, and on Thursday night they pasted the Nashville Predators 5-0.

Even though New York’s analytics have improved drastically since the Bo Horvat trade, I still think this team may get dismantled on Saturday evening. Even before you get to the personnel, the Islanders have the deck stacked against them.

The Islanders will be playing the second game of a back-to-back, so we may not see goaltender Ilya Sorokin. Also, the Bruins will be at home, giving them the last change, which will provide them with the option of matching the Patrice Bergeron line against Barzal and Horvat or the Brock Nelson line. But, of course, there is the personnel consideration – I don’t think the Islanders will be able to control play.

In their latest loss to the Ottawa Senators, the Islanders struggled to reduce their opponents’ speed through the neutral zone. Ottawa identified room through the middle lane when the Islanders’ defenceman tried to step up on the outside, and the Senators were able to springboard their most skilled players on the rush. Tim Stutzle tallied the first Ottawa goal this way. The Bruins love to feature their defencemen on four-men attacks, and if the Islanders give up the blue line easily, Boston will expose them with cross-seam passes.

Even if the Islanders succeed at taking away the Bruins’ speed, I still like Boston. The metrics bear out that the Bruins are one of the best teams in the league in offensive and defensive puck battles, so Boston pressuring a plodding Islanders defensive group into turnovers on the forecheck seems not just plausible but likely. The Bruins thrive off give and go’s, and against an Islanders team playing two nights in a row, I don’t love the Islanders chasing the Bruins around New York’s own end.

The Bruins have been the best team at 5-on-5 all season and they are among the best in the league in the advanced stats. Playing at home, where they are 22-2-3, I like Boston to take care of business in regulation.

Pick: Bruins’ 60-minute line -160

Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars

Saturday, February 18 – 6 PM ET

The Columbus Blue Jackets want to win, kind of, but a pivot has happened, which is toward trading assets for the rebuild. Observe defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov. Actually, you can’t—because the Blue Jackets are currently sitting this minute-crunching defenceman for the sole purpose of preserving his health for a trade. This posture places them in a gauzy, post-winning mindset. Plus, quietly, any loss gets them that much closer to the No. 1 overall pick.

Even with this strain of nihilism ingrained, the Blue Jackets are a fun hang for viewers who tune in to their games. They are fast and young. They are dangerous off the rush. They don’t play defence well, so their adversary has a bevy of chances. In the first period on Thursday night, the Winnipeg Jets seemed genuinely frazzled at times by how much time and room they had. But this YOLO hockey attitude seems positively doomed when Columbus plays Dallas on Saturday.

The Stars will enter this game displaying red flags. They likely will be starting backup Scott Wedgewood with stud goaltender Jake Oettinger getting the start on Friday night. The Stars have scored three goals in their last two games. And in back-to-backs this year, they have been bad in the second game (2-3).

But c’mon, they’re playing the Blue Jackets when they are coming off a win! Columbus hasn’t won two straight games since December 11. The Blue Jackets’ most consistent trait is immediately losing after a win. Add in the fact that Columbus will be playing on the road, where they have a miserable 5-17-2 record, and Dallas is primed to wax them. With the Stars having lost two straight entering the weekend, they’ll surely be motivated.

I’m expecting the Stars to win by dialing back the pace. Columbus struggles mightily in its breakouts, and Dallas is adept at getting pressure from the F1 and taking away the walls. The Stars are one of the best faceoff teams in the NHL, and the Jason Robertson line is deadly off won draws. I don’t really envision Columbus having much of an answer for that line or the grinding physicality of the Stars’ forecheck.

Even though Oettinger won’t be in goal, I think Dallas will stymie the Blue Jackets’ offence. Dallas is one of the best in the league at gapping up and it is aggressive at denying entries. When hemmed in their end, the Stars’ layers in the defensive zone make them very difficult to create against on the cycle. Plus, for a backup, Wedgewood is an adequate option, submitting a 2.26 GSAx this season. If the Blue Jackets start Joonas Korpisalo, they’ll have the goaltending edge, but if they trot out Elvis Merzlikins – a distinct possibility if they want to increase their lottery chances – then the Stars have the advantage.

The Stars have excelled this season by usually beating the teams they are supposed to beat. I expect them to pull out the victory on Saturday and am willing to grab them in 60 minutes.

Pick: Stars’ 60 minute line -150

Tampa Bay Lightning at Vegas Golden Knights

Saturday, February 18 – 10:30 PM ET

With no clear-cut favourite in the weaker Western Conference, there are voices who are starting to drink the Golden Knights Kool-Aid. But I think Vegas has more problems than meet the eye, and I think its matchup against Tampa Bay on Saturday night will exacerbate those issues.

I cannot imagine how frustrating it is to play against Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy. He’s practically impossible to score against down low. He has a great poke-check. He is freakishly athletic, allowing him to recover in ways that defy common sense. And if you don’t take away his eyes, your life is that much harder.

But trying to beat goalies with unimpeded vision is kind of the Golden Knights’ M.O. They work teams down low and look for shots in the slot. They kick it back to their defencemen and try to let them create offence. And they shoot for tips. But unlike a lot of NHL teams, they’re not as eager to stack the slot with bodies. That is a tall task against Vasilevskiy, and if the Lightning box out well and don’t feed the Golden Knights’ counterattack with turnovers, I struggle to imagine Vegas creating much offence. Especially since its power play has nosedived since losing Mark Stone. (In nearly 30 opportunities, it has posted only one goal.)

The Golden Knights’ success is predicated on their defence, not their offence. But here, too, they may have problems against the Lightning. With goaltender Logan Thompson on the shelf with an injury, they’ll be relying on career backup Adin Hill, who has a perfectly pedestrian 1.48 Goals Above Expected (GSAx) in 22 games. Besides thinking the Lightning could win the game on special teams since Vegas has a mediocre penalty kill and can’t score with the man-advantage, I believe Lightning coach Jon Cooper will identify areas at 5-on-5 where the Golden Knights are vulnerable.

The Golden Knights love to block shots and front the puck. But sometimes Vegas’s skaters are so zeroed in on their space to cover in zone, that an enemy body slips through undetected. Against San Jose, the Golden Knights allowed Sharks players to cruise through the slot while a shot was being teed up. Bypassing that first Vegas shot blocker is difficult, but Tampa Bay is up to the challenge. In this same vein, when opponents use the width of the ice and look to the far side or come up from beneath the goal line, Vegas can lose track of them. Cooper doesn’t get enough credit for being a brilliant tactician, and I anticipate him having Tampa Bay hardwired to slip through the cracks on the Golden Knights’ coverage.

Don’t get me wrong: the injury to Lightning defenceman Erik Cernak is a tough pill to swallow. If Cernak was healthy, there would be more assurance about the Lightning’s prospects to step up and choke off the Golden Knights’ efforts to stretch the ice. Tampa Bay is thin at defence, and without Cernak there is danger Vegas establishes offensive zone time and the Lightning struggle to wrestle possession back. But with Vegas going for its fifth straight win – something that hasn’t happened since the end of October and beginning of November – I like Tampa Bay, especially coming off a loss.

Pick: Lightning -125

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