State of the Position: Blue Jays’ lineup could be one of baseball’s best

Scott Mitchell

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TORONTO — It’s very obvious where the Toronto Blue Jays improved the most over the winter.

They already boasted the seventh-best offence in the game last season at right around five runs per clip, and there’s absolutely no arguing they’re even more potent heading into 2021.

As safe a bet as it gets in free agency, George Springer was one of the crown jewels of the market. Landing a dynamic combination of power, speed and on-base ability will only make Charlie Montoyo’s job easier when he pencils in his daily lineups starting April 1 at Yankee Stadium.

A leadoff hitter for the majority of his 3,567 trips to the plate over the 31-year-old’s seven-year career, expect the Jays to tinker with lineup combinations this season, if only because Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Marcus Semien, the other marquee free-agent addition this winter, are all capable of hitting atop a lineup, and they all bring different flavours and skill sets.

Springer has the most raw power out of the group and should push the 35-homer mark, but no matter how you configure the first three lineup names, it’s going to be a strong group and is without a doubt one of the best offences in the American League — the New York Yankees (5.4 runs per game) and Chicago White Sox (5.0 per game) are alongside them — if they stay healthy.

If there’s a flaw with this group, it’s that they’re righty-hitter heavy, but it’s not like any of those bats have a history of struggling against right-handed pitching either, so it’s not a huge concern.

But it does make Biggio’s placement within the lineup interesting.

His elite pitch recognition has led to a .368 on-base percentage, a number that could continue to climb if he can make some more contact and barrel up the baseball more frequently.

As the only left-handed hitter guaranteed to see the field almost every day, he provides a bit of balance and the quality of his at-bats are always top notch, an important part of hitting near the top of any lineup.

No matter what Montoyo comes up with, it’s by far the easiest part of his job given the on-paper talent.

Here’s a look at the pieces:

PROJECTED BENCH

1. OF Randal Grichuk (R)
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD

PROSPECTS ON THE 40-MAN

C Riley Adams (R)
C Gabriel Moreno (R)
INF/OF Otto Lopez (R)

JOB BATTLES

As you see above, there are a couple potential bench battles brewing.

With Reese McGuire out of options and catching in high demand around baseball — I can almost guarantee the Pittsburgh Pirates would claim McGuire if he was exposed to waivers — the Jays may be forced to make a decision between him and 22-year-old Alejandro Kirk, who is clearly the best offensive option behind the dish. 

With a 26-man roster in place for 2021, they could also decide to keep three catchers, especially with Kirk’s bat capable of DHing on a daily basis and Rowdy Tellez’s small-sample-size breakout from 2020 in question until he does it again. 

Another 2020 breakout, Teoscar Hernandez could also see significant DH time if the Jays decide to put their best defensive outfield on the field with now-fourth outfielder Randal Grichuk in right. 

If the Jays decide to keep only three bench players and go with a 14-man pitching staff — a complete possibility given the structure of the rotation — then three catchers won’t be a possibility and the final spot will come down to utility infielders Santiago Espinal and Joe Panik, who’s back for another crack at winning a job as a non-roster invite, something he was able to do last summer. His left-handed stick may make him the favourite, but Espinal has the better glove and is already on the 40-man roster.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

If Hernandez’s breakout, one that started in the middle of 2019 and carried over to 2020, is legit, Lourdes Gurriel’s continues and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can tap into his power, it’s one of the deepest lineups in the AL and will be a serious daily problem for pitchers no matter who’s resting.

The addition of Springer ties things together with a proven threat to plop into a lineup full of upside, while Semien is the X-factor. If he looks anything like 2019 when he finished third in MVP voting, the Jays could boast above average offensive production one through nine.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

The aforementioned right-handedness is something the front office would love to change, but that’s not going to hinder them too much and lefty-swinging Tellez will get an opportunity to build on a .283/.346/.540 slash line that unfortunately was put to halt by a freak knee injury that ended his season in September.

This is nitpicking, but it’s a lineup with a number of free swingers and a lot of youth still, so it could be streaky.

HOW THINGS COULD GO WRONG

Here’s how: Semien looks like the guy he did last season when he struggled mightily in a contract year with Oakland, Hernandez’s plate discipline strides don’t hold, and Vladdy Jr.’s big breakout is put on hold until 2022. 

As with any team, injuries could play a role, too, as Gurriel has never been a picture of health and Bo Bichette’s 2020 was interrupted by a knee injury. 

Another small factor to consider is the Jays will be getting used to (another) minor-league hitting environment inside Dunedin’s TD Ballpark, but they’ll be better equipped to deal with that than the competition, just like last year at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field.

POTENTIAL BREAKOUT

1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

It’s all about launch angle for Guerrero. 

He stings the baseball, but far too often it’s into the ground, leaving his power production capped.

Vladdy’s average exit velocity is elite, jumping from 89.4 mph in 2019 to 92.4 last season, but his groundball rate also jumped four percentage points to 54.6 per cent and he hit even less balls in the air than he did in his rookie season. All not good.

The key, however, is the launch angle dropping from 6.7 degrees to 4.6 in the shortened 2020 campaign.

All of that is a fancy way of saying Junior crushes the baseball, but he has to drive the ball in the air more to unlock everything.

BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE

2B Marcus Semien

Handed $18 million by GM Ross Atkins, Semien is far from the key to the Blue Jays’ offence this season, but he is the key to grading out their off-season.

Springer should be Springer, but Semien ate up a huge chunk of the budget and there was an opportunity cost there when it came to the pitching side of things.

There are many reasons to believe he’ll be a productive player and he also brings a veteran presence, but a bounce back offensively is still key.

PROSPECT TO WATCH THIS SPRING

C Alejandro Kirk

Over at FanGraphs, Dan Szymborski’s fantastic ZiPS projections have Kirk as the seventh most valuable catcher in baseball for 2021 at 2.1 fWAR. 

Right behind him in the eighth spot is Danny Jansen, the incumbent starter.

If the Jays can get that type of production out of the catcher spot, it’ll be a complete reversal of fortune after they finished 26th in baseball in catcher production last year at minus-0.2 fWAR, which is why Kirk was summoned as a 21-year-old in the first place.

The question with Kirk, who shed some pounds this winter, isn’t the bat, it’s how they’ll deploy him and how he handles his defensive duties, especially controlling a running game.

The bat is special and it’s too good to send back to Triple-A for defensive polish, but he also needs to play.

Pay attention to how much he DHs this spring.

SECOND-HALF CONTRIBUTOR

OF Josh Palacios

After graduating their first wave of position players to the majors over the past two seasons, there isn’t much in the way of help on the horizon without someone forcing the front office’s hand like Kirk did last year.

But Palacios, despite flying under the radar as a prospect since being drafted in 2016, is well positioned in two ways.

Added to the 40-man in November, he’s one injury away from a corner outfield role, while his left-handed bat also helps.

Some swing and approach adjustments last summer at the alternate site in Rochester had him using the whole field, and he shouldn’t be overmatched by big-league arms when he does get the call.