TORONTO — Back in 2019 when the Toronto Blue Jays were suffering through a 95-loss season, the bullpen phone was buzzing early and often.

They posted a 4.35 ERA as a group that year, good for 15th in baseball, but the Jays were one of 12 teams that failed to generate 2.0 Wins Above Replacement from its relievers.

It was a middle-of-the-pack bullpen despite the Jays being a really bad baseball team.

Last summer, contrary to the improvements the Jays made as a team to finish four games above .500 and make the expanded postseason, the bullpen got worse, showing a lot of that overall success was tied to offensive breakouts and Hyun-Jin Ryu bringing some desperately needed stability to the top of the rotation.

In what was obviously a small sample size of just 269 innings — get used to that caveat when talking about 2020 statistics — Jays relievers combined on a 4.71 ERA, the seventh-worst mark in baseball.

Even more concerning were the walks, with Jays relievers issuing 144 free bases, the most in baseball.

Considering they lost Ken Giles to an elbow injury on the first weekend of the season and got nothing from their star closer before he had season-ending Tommy John surgery that eventually ended his Blue Jays’ tenure, it was a feat that they even held it together, especially after 2020 breakout Jordan Romano hit the injured list with a freak finger injury a month later.

So what does that all mean?

It means there’s room for marked improvement and the front office saw that, as well, going out and adding former stud closer Kirby Yates, serviceable setup man David Phelps and the versatile Tyler Chatwood, whose high-strikeout upside in a multi-inning role could make him a valuable, under-the-radar weapon if things click.

But make no mistake, a lot of the upside in this bullpen has to do with Romano’s continued emergence, and the evolution of multi-inning arms like Ryan Borucki, Julian Merryweather, Thomas Hatch and Trent Thornton.

There’s a lot to like here, but as with any bullpen, there’s a whole lot of uncertainty.

Here’s a look at the pieces heading into camp:

 

Projected bullpen

 
Player Situation 2020 IP ERA FIP fWAR
Kirby Yates (R) High-leverage 4.1 16.61 5.27 0.0
Rafael Dolis (R) High-leverage 24.0 1.50 3.02 0.5
Jordan Romano (R) High-leverage 14.2 1.23 3.12 0.3
Ryan Borucki (L) Middle innings 16.2 2.70 3.61 0.2
Tyler Chatwood (R) Middle innings 18.2 5.30 3.35 0.4
David Phelps (R) Middle innings 20.2 6.53 5.47 -0.1
To be determined  Bulk (x3) - - - -
 

 

Competing for jobs

 
Player Age 2020 IP ERA FIP fWAR
Ross Stripling (R) 31 49.1 5.84 6.15 -0.3
Julian Merryweather (R) 29 13.0 4.15 2.27 0.5
Thomas Hatch (R) 26 26.1 2.73 4.14 0.2
Trent Thornton (R) 27 5.2 11.12 2.66 0.2
Anthony Kay (L) 25 21.0 5.14 4.95 -0.1
T.J. Zeuch (R) 25 11.1 1.59 4.87 0.1
Patrick Murphy (R) 25 6.0 1.50 2.52 0.1
Jacob Waguespack (R) 27 17.2 8.15 4.72 0.0
Francisco Liriano (L) 37 - - -
A.J. Cole (R)  29 23.1 3.09 4.31 0.2
Tim Mayza (L) 29 - - - -
Anthony Castro 25 1.0 18.00 17.19 -0.1
 

PROSPECTS ON THE 40-MAN

RHP Ty Tice

 

JOB BATTLES

Embedded Image

A lot of the job battles here could be settled by the fallout from the competition for rotation spots, where there are as many as six or seven legitimate candidates vying for the final three slots.

The projection above has the Jays starting with a nine-man bullpen and going with a three-man bench, which is far from guaranteed, but it also seems the ideal setup given the need to cover innings and the potential for some creative piggyback scenarios in the back end of the rotation.

Roles are going to be fluid in 2021, and there are a number of pseudo-starter types like Merryweather, Hatch, Thornton and Stripling who could be used to start games one week and then fill multi-inning bulk roles the next.

Spring training should provide a lot of clarity, but given the circumstances of going from 60 games to a full 162, combined with the skills of the group of arms the front office has collected, you can expect a whole lot of creative mixing and matching, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Keep an eye on non-roster invites Francisco Liriano, A.J. Cole and lefty Tim Mayza, who’s ready to return from the ugly arm injured he suffered on the mound at Rogers Centre in September of 2019.

 

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Embedded Image

Bullpens are volatile at the best of times and it’s hard to call anything a strength with this group of young arms and reclamation projects, but there is big time upside here.

If Yates’ elbow is healthy and Romano looks as lights-out as he did last August with his increased slider and 97-mph heat, it could be a dominant one-two punch.

Borucki also had his moments in his first stint as a reliever, flashing a 95-mph sinker and a wipeout slider from the left side.

If Liriano is able to make the team, manager Charlie Montoyo could have a nice lefty duo to deploy.

 

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Embedded Image

It’s pretty much the same as the strength.

All that upside could go belly up in a hurry, either due to poor performance, or more likely, health, as pretty much every key piece to this ’pen has an iffy track record of being able to

stay on the mound for a full season.

 

HOW THINGS COULD GO WRONG

See above. Staying healthy is the key.

 

POTENTIAL BREAKOUT

Embedded Image

RHP Jordan Romano

You can definitely argue the soon-to-be 28-year-old Markham, Ont., product already broke out in 2020, but we have to remember it was just 14.2 innings.

One or two ugly outings and we could be looking at a much different stat line than the shiny 1.23 ERA that saw him strike out 37 per cent of the hitters he faced.

But there’s no arguing the stuff improved in 2020, as Romano came out pumping a swing-and-miss 97-mph four-seam fastball and a filthy slider.

If that returns after a right middle finger injury that went numb in a game on Aug. 28 ended his season, he could be a major weapon.

 

BOUNCEBACK CANDIDATE

Embedded Image

RHP Kirby Yates

This ’pen could be a nightmare for fantasy owners, as Yates is far from assured the full-time closer’s role — Romano and Rafael Dolis will see save opportunities — but if the 34-year-old is back to his dominant 2019 ways, he’ll be pitching in the ninth inning most nights.

It’s impossible to expect the right-hander to be as ridiculously good as he was two seasons ago for the Padres when he posted a 1.19 ERA, struck out 101 batters across 60.2 frames and was worth 3.4 fWAR, but that’s the kind of upside he has.

Yates comes into camp fully healthy off August surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow.

 

PROSPECT TO WATCH THIS SPRING

Embedded Image

RHP Julian Merryweather

I can’t say much more about the Josh Donaldson trade return than I already have. After pushing him all the way up to No. 13 on my top 50 Jays prospects list, he just needs to stay healthy to play some sort of role.

The Jays wanted him to come to camp stretched out as a starter, but his usage this spring will be interesting to monitor as a pitcher with multiple recent elbow problems on his resume.

 

SECOND-HALF CONTRIBUTOR

Embedded Image

RHP Jackson Rees

There are many starting pitching prospects who could work their way into the bullpen conversation down the line, but Rees is one of the better relief-only prospects the Jays have.

You can read all about how the undrafted University of Hawaii product broke out in 2019 right here.