Every sharp sports bettor knows, any time an angle is identified, you have to capitalize on the opportunity quickly before the market corrects itself.

It’s a game of cat and mouse.

I’m writing this article to spotlight one that we’re currently in the thick of. I’ll go through the thinking process below with headers for you to follow along:

Observation: Scoring in the NBA has jumped up by roughly 10 points per game post All-Star Break compared to pre All-Star Break.

This was spotted two weeks after All-Star Weekend. A total of 104 games were played with many superstar players putting up absurd stat lines.

 

Is this just an anomaly? Or is there substance to what we’re witnessing?

Working with several team members within the TSN organization, this is what I came up with.

Hypothesis: The introduction of the play-in tournament combined with the level of parity this season has resulted in teams playing their starters heavier minutes as seeding implications loom large.

The data speaks for itself. Game totals are 10 points higher since the break. The challenge is finding qualitative reasoning to support the numbers and determine if it’s sustainable.

The following notes below are the key insights drawn from the data.         

Fouls per game have increased: As scoring has increased, so has the volume of fouls per game over these first two weeks post All-Star Weekend.

Prior to the break, teams were logging 19.4 fouls per game. Since the break, it’s increased by 8.8 per cent to 21.2.

With more fouls, we have more breaks in play. Teams are getting more points on the board while the clock is frozen.

Let’s use Joel Embiid as an example, the league leader in free-throws. He averaged 11.3 attempts prior to the All-Star Break. Post All-Star Break? He’s cranked it up to 15.9 attempts.

The NBA’s top-15 players in free-throw volume ranged from 11.3 to 5.9 attempts during the first “half” of the season. Post All-Star Break, the top-15 range from 15.9 to 7.6.

Superstars are logging heavier minutes: Since the All-Star Break, NBA superstars have seen their minutes per game collectively increase.

Take a look at the NBA’s top-15 scorers below. Their Pre and Post All-Star Break minutes are side-by-side.

Player Pre ASW MPG Post ASW MPG Difference
Joel Embiid 32.9 34.5 1.6
Giannis Antetokounmpo 32.7 33.4 0.7
Kevin Durant 36.5 36.5 0
LeBron James 36.8 38.4 1.6
DeMar DeRozan 35.6 38.7 3.1
Trae Young 34.4 36.9 2.5
Luka Doncic 35.4 36.9 1.5
Ja Morant 33.2 33.2 0
Nikola Jokic 33 34 1
Stephen Curry 34.8 35.4 0.6
Donovan Mitchell 33.4 34.1 0.7
Jayson Tatum 36.1 37.8 1.7
Devin Booker 34.1 37 2.9
Zach LaVine 34.6 36.3 1.7
Karl-Anthony Towns 34.3 30.1 -4.2

With the exception of Towns, every top scorer has either increased their minutes or remained the same.

An argument can be made that an increase in minutes for the superstars doesn’t directly correlate to more scoring.

But as a general thought, think about who typically draws fouls in the NBA.

It’s not P.J. Tucker in the corner jacking threes or Steven Adams grabbing offensive rebounds.

The Embiids and DeRozans of the world are the ones getting to the line. If their minutes are going up, scoring volume should as well.

This has never happened in past seasons: 10.4 more points per game equates to a 4.8 per cent increase. You might say that’s not much and just a coincidence.

Well, even though it’s only been two weeks since the break, that’s 104 games of data we’re working off of.

I decided to look back at the three seasons prior to the bubble year to compare.

Using the same sample size, here are the numbers:

 

2017 – 211.0 ppg -> 211.8 ppg

2018 – 211.9 ppg -> 217.8 ppg

2019 – 221.4 ppg ->226.3 ppg

 

Of those three seasons, 2018 was the biggest jump in scoring out of the break at 5.9 points (2.8 per cent more).

But if you average the three seasons, scoring over the same period only went up 3.9 points per game. This season at 10.4 points per game, scoring is up two and a half times more.

This is unique to this season.

League parity is also playing a role: At the break, two teams were tied for the Eastern Conference lead. The No. 1 seed was only 2.5 games ahead of the sixth seed.

Atlanta and Charlotte were tied for the final play-in berths with the Wizards and Knicks nipping at their heels. New York was 3.5 games back in 12th place.

In the West, there were six teams ranked 8th through 12th, all with decent chances of securing a play-in berth. New Orleans and San Antonio came out of the break only two games back of Portland for the final spot.

The play-in tournament format has increased the stakes for several middling teams.

But coincidentally, it happens to be a season where the top seeds are jockeying for home-court advantage as well.

The combination of these two factors has resulted in teams logging heavy minutes for their superstars.

Three seasons ago, the 12th seeded Mavericks were five games out of a playoff spot. That same year in the East, 12th seeded Atlanta was eight games away from making the playoffs.

These teams could shut it down earlier. The tanking began sooner.

This season, those same teams are fighting harder to push for the playoffs. Look no further than the New Orleans Pelicans going all-in at the trade deadline with a 23-36 record at the break.

Conclusion: Scoring is up but the oddsmakers are adjusting as well. While games averaged 218.4 points pre All-Star Break, the average game total set by the books has been 225.8 since the break.

Oddsmakers clearly see the same scoring increase. The key to capitalizing on this angle is to find the games that check all the boxes mentioned above.

- Teams with playoff implications
- Superstars who can handle the increased workload
- Games that involve foul-drawing players

As of Friday morning, the record for game totals has gone 50-54-2 post All-Star Break.

Don’t just blindly bet every single over on the slate.

Find the games that fit these criteria and perhaps you’ll have a slightly better than average edge when getting your money in.