Slump or short-term lapse?

That is the question bettors should be asking themselves when assessing certain teams heading into this weekend.

I’m wagering on the latter, and I’ll tell you why.

Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers
Saturday, February 26 – 12:30 PM ET

The arrival of Edmonton interim coach Jay Woodcroft has been a breath of fresh air. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are breathtaking talents, and seeing Edmonton play such uninspired hockey until recently, frankly, bummed me out.

Woodcroft’s arrival has paid clear dividends from the get-go. The Oilers have tightened the screws in the neutral zone. Better gaps mean the Oilers force turnovers and produce counterattack goals. On breakouts, the Oilers’ forwards drift toward the neutral zone, pushing back the defence and forcing the Edmonton defencemen to make a longer stretch pass or try to carry it out on their own.

Under Woodcroft, the Oilers started to play 11 forwards and seven defencemen, with the defensive group seeing ice time divvied up more equitably. The Oilers won their first five games with Woodcroft at the helm, and their 5-on-5 numbers soared.

But no matter how magical, honeymoons never last, do they? Reality has set in, as Edmonton lost its last two games by multi-goal margins, and has allowed 12 total goals. “The Oilers are playing more passive on their forecheck. Cool,” said Tampa Bay in Wednesday’s game. “We’ll push our players up ice and then snake our way through with delayed entries. And your forwards are going to hang out above the hash marks on breakouts? That’s fine. We’ll jump that first pass from the retrieving defenceman to the outlet.” 

Better gaps don’t scotch the Oilers’ lingering goaltending issues. The line of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Derek Ryan and Warren Foegele started off hot under Woodcroft, but has been held off the scoresheet in the last two games.

Now the Oilers play an angry Florida team coming off consecutive losses on home ice. Drilling down on what the Predators and Blue Jackets did to beat the Panthers, there is noticeable overlap. It starts with the Panthers’ overpowering offence overshadowing a defence that can be problematic.

Objective one: Bring the fight to their doorstep. When Panthers skaters are forced to box out and defend around their net they can be exposed. On the Predators’ first goal on Tuesday, Filip Forsberg banged into the net a loose puck around the paint despite Florida having bodies around him. On Thursday night, the Blue Jackets notched two goals by planting their forwards in the low slot and making the deflection when the puck was hammered from the point.

It seems all but assured that the Oilers will be angling to slow this game down. They will want to get the puck below the goal line and force the Panthers’ defencemen to make decisions under pressure while the Oilers’ forecheckers bear down on them. They will hope to make the Panthers’ breakout arduous rather than instantaneous. And as the reward for obtaining offensive-zone possession, Edmonton will spray shots on net from everywhere with traffic in the slot.

The second commonality in the Predators’ and Blue Jackets’ victories against Florida is each had success off counterattacks. Time and space can manifest so effortlessly for the Panthers that they’ve been guilty of looking to make the extra pass, and it has proven costly in their past two contests. If the Oilers get their sticks in the passing lanes and can catch Florida with several skaters beneath the puck, they are going to find chances off the rush. But the Predators’ and Blue Jackets’ counterattacks were buoyed by one crucial point: poor Florida goaltending.

Florida got poor goaltending in both efforts. With Spencer Knight in Charlotte, one would suspect we will be seeing Sergei Bobrovsky on Saturday night. In the month of February, Bobrovsky’s numbers are grisly, submitting a -2.82 GSAx. Of course, zoom out to the beginning of 2022 and Bobrovsky’s numbers look much better.

Before this week, the Panthers were winning close to 90 per cent of their games at home. They are healthy. At 5-on-5, they outshot the Predators and Blue Jackets and generated more high-danger chances. While interim head coach Andrew Brunette doesn’t have agency to fix the goaltending, he can fix the sloppiness. Put me down for Florida in regulation time.

Pick: Panthers -150

Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings
Saturday, February 26 – 7:30 PM ET

Are the Maple Leafs fatally flawed or just experiencing a fit of poor play over the course of a marathon regular season? Losing three of their last four games, and five of their last eight, an interrogation is required.

First, the John Tavares-William Nylander pairing has struggled. In their first 33 games together at 5-on-5, the two forwards posted a goal differential of +5 and high-danger chances differential of +23. Their expected goals percentage was 57.29. Over their last 17 games at 5-on-5, their performance has sharply dipped. They have a +5 high-danger chances differential. Their expected goals percentage is 52.16. But here is the kicker: their goal differential is -10. It is not reductive to say they went from being an asset to a liability.

Second, the team’s defence has been inconsistent and, at times, bad. The concern is most acute at the goaltender position. Jack Campbell has been ghastly, and Petr Mrazek has been much better, but partly on account of the bar being so low. While the Leafs’ defencemen are mobile, they can struggle with their gaps and puck management. Even if Toronto’s forwards offer more assistance, it is fair to wonder how much they can buoy a vulnerable defensive group and fizzling goaltender duo.

Which brings us to Saturday, where the Leafs can shove aside the existential problems of Are-We-Cup-Ready? and live in the moment. Detroit is a one-zone team that can look dangerous when the puck is in its offensive zone, and it has a batch of young, skilled players who can make you look foolish. But in the defensive zone, this team is a mess.

In their last game against the Colorado Avalanche, the Red Wings found themselves in unenviable situations. The Avalanche would draw Moritz Seider toward the point in pursuit of their puck-carrier and, uh oh, Filip Zadina is suddenly left trying to box out Nazem Kadri in the low-slot. Advantage, Colorado. When Detroit was forced into switches or had to make a quick decision to lead the breakout, things went badly.

There is a very imaginable outcome where Toronto forechecks Detroit ad nauseum, and the Red Wings’ dynamic players don’t alter the game because they spend too much time chasing in their own end. The Red Wings have a much better record at home than on the road, but their underlying metrics in their own rink are still underwhelming.

Even on the road, where Toronto has been beatable, I am dubious the Red Wings have the depth or speed to neutralize the Maple Leafs. I’ll snatch Toronto in regulation.

Pick: Maple Leafs -140

Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames
Saturday, February 26 – 10 PM ET

It was an ugly result, but the Calgary Flames lost 7-1 to the Vancouver Canucks because of special teams. Three of the first four goals the Canucks scored were power-play tallies. After that, things snowballed.

But the Flames of the first nine games of their very recent 10-game win streak haven’t been the Flames in the last two games. Last Saturday, Calgary won its ninth straight and its high-danger chances percentage during its win streak at 5-on-5 in one-goal situations was 60.19, best in the league during that stretch. In the past two games, the numbers plunged to 46.88. Being consistently excellent is a tough gig.

The Flames’ opponent on Saturday is a Minnesota Wild squad enduring a rare bit of hardship in a season with a decidedly sunny outlook. The Wild have been struggling with their team defence, but on Thursday night it was the scoring that dried up. The Kirill Kaprizov line has been dismantling opponents all season long, but against Toronto it was held to two shots at 5-on-5. Overall, the Wild, who have a potent rush attack, were mostly consigned to forechecking for offence.

The Canucks’ offensive eruption with the man advantage shouldn’t overshadow what they did defensively to contain Calgary. Their forwards were very diligent with back pressure, which empowered their defencemen to be very aggressive stripping the puck away at the blue lines and stepping up in the neutral zone.

Furthermore, they hobbled the Johnny Gaudreau line and cancelled their plans. All the pet plays the Flames like to run—the behind the net playmaking to Elias Lindholm, the leak outs for transition opportunities, the forwards drawing attention toward the point to set up the backdoor play to the weak-side defenceman—Vancouver was ready for. And with the Gaudreau line neutralized, Calgary looked defanged.

The Flames’ defencemen are very good at pressuring opposing defences by activating and pinching along the perimeter, thereby opening up the slot for the Flames’ forwards. But Minnesota could make this a combustible strategy, as it has a mobile defensive group and the entire team keeps active sticks. The Wild are extremely dangerous on the counterattack and carve up opponents by executing short to intermediate passes and having their defencemen jump into the rush.

Goaltending is a concern for Minnesota, especially if Cam Talbot is given the car keys. But I have too much faith in the Wild’s depth and skill to think they’ll lose five of six. I’ll take the value at +125.

Pick: Wild +125