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It seems clear the Blue Jays have known for quite a while that they either couldn’t or didn’t want to sign star slugger Josh Donaldson to a contract extension.

Think about it: If they really wanted to get a deal done they would have negotiated with him in November. That way the team could have locked him up long-term and been able to add impact talent around him through free agency.

Knowing they were going to be competitive, the Jays could have aggressively pursued players, building to win over the term of the Donaldson deal.

Instead, they didn’t even try to extend him, focusing instead on signing one-year free agents and trading for controllable players. Those moves further reinforced the direction of the organization: It’s all about 2018.  After this season, they will head in another direction. They will rebuild. 

Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro met with Donaldson and his agent last week and the conversation went as both parties expected. The Jays have no set policy on length of contracts, but they know what feels right based upon their analytics. The new baseball metrics say it’s a bad investment to sign 33-year-old players to long-term deals. They knew that Donaldson would be looking for a deal far longer than they would be willing to go.

The former MVP third baseman clearly rejects the notion that age matters for him.  He believes in himself physically, mentally and spiritually. Donaldson thinks at least a six-year deal is appropriate and will be there for him in the free-agent market next off-season.

The Jays were probably relieved when Edwin Encarnacion rejected their four-year, $80-million offer last off-season. The rapid decline of Jose Bautista is fresh in their mind as well, reinforcing their analytics.  They wouldn’t likely consider a deal of more than four years for Donaldson.

MacArthur: Jays should keep Donaldson to contend

Scott MacArthur lays out reasons why the Blue Jays can contend if they keep Josh Donaldson instead of trading him at the deadline.

Ownership has placed no specific limitations on Shapiro and Atkins with regard to how much they can pay any individual player, but they have to consider how much they can commit to one franchise player while still fielding a winning roster around him.

Donaldson is making $23 million this season and will likely command as much as $30 million per year in free agency. That may be a deal-breaker for Toronto’s front office.

The other challenge for the Jays in any deal with Donaldson is the inclusion of a no-trade clause. Again, Shapiro and Atkins never say never on anything. They would consider such clauses in certain circumstances, but it is unclear whether a multi-year commitment to a 33-year-old third baseman would be such a circumstance. Big free-agent stars expect no-trade clauses. If they’re going to commit to a club, they want the club to commit to them.

Even if all the stars aligned for Donaldson and the Jays, he would want to know that the franchise would be willing to commit to other free agents in the same way they are with him: money, years, no-trade clauses, etc. Donaldson wants to get paid his true value, but he also wants to win. You’d expect him to look elsewhere if he couldn’t get that commitment.

The parties met so they could say they met. There was no real negotiation because the strong positions of the two sides made serious talks a non-starter. They had a respectful conversation, agreeing to keep lines of communication open with the possibility of reconnecting again before free agency.

But know this: The price will not go down. Every day Donaldson gets closer to free agency, the price will increase. The better he performs, the more committed he will become to his case and his ability to land his payday. All he needs is one team willing to betray the analytics and show him the money.

On the other hand, Donaldson isn’t getting any younger. Any injury this season, even if it is inconsequential, will reinforce to the Jays and others that older players are tremendous risks.

All signs clearly indicate that Donaldson will be wearing a different uniform in 2019. The only question is whether or not he can go out a winner this year. If not, the new uniform may be necessary at the July 31 trade deadline.

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Steve Phillips was general manager of the New York Mets from 1997 through 2003, helping lead the club to a National League championship in 2000 and its first World Series appearance since 1986. His analysis appears each week on TSN.ca, TSN Radio and SportsCentre. Follow Steve on Twitter at @StevePhillipsGM.